Rennes vs Le Mans: model prediction
Ligue 1Rennes or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Full time8 of 11 calls right
Our most likely call was Rennes at 63.2%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 61.4% and it landed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 82.9% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 60.9% and it missed (5 goals). We called Yes at 58.4% and it landed. We called Yes at 78.2% and it landed. We called Yes at 84.1% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 50.9% and it landed (14 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 50.5% and it missed (5 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 51.9% and it landed (34 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 63.6% and it landed (13 shots on target). We called No at 84.2% and it missed.
| Match data | Rennes | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, 1st half | 2 | 1 |
| Goals, 2nd half | 1 | 1 |
| Shots | 22 | 12 |
| Shots, 1st half | 10 | 8 |
| Shots, 2nd half | 12 | 4 |
| Shots on target | 8 | 5 |
| Corners | 8 | 6 |
| Yellow cards | 3 | 2 |
| Red cards | 0 | 1 |
| Fouls | 15 | 15 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 3.64 | 2.72 |
Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"Rennes or Le Mans? We publish probabilities, not certainties." On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Rennes heavy favourites at 63% when Rennes meet Le Mans in the Ligue 1 on 30 August 2026. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Rennes higher (67%) than our model does. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 61% with both teams to score at 58%. Esteban Lepaul drives the home shot volume, 1.2 on target per 90. The run in: Rennes arrive W3 D1 L2, Le Mans W0 D1 L0. As a promoted side, Le Mans carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.023 <= 0.03).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
63.2%-4.2%
20.5%+1.9%
16.3%+2.3%
value_gap +0.023 <= 0.03
Goals markets
High probability
Strong chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Rennes
Le MansPlayers to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 2.15
@ 1.48
@ 1.36
@ 9.17
@ 1.97
@ 2.54
@ 2.42
@ 1.50
@ 1.47
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 75.2% | Over 7.5 | 63.6% | Over 8.5 | 51.2% | Over 9.5 | 39.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Rennes | 54.2% | Most: Le Mans | 33.6% | ||||
| Rennes Over 4.2 | 51.8% | Le Mans Over 4.2 | 36.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 70.6% | Over 3.5 | 49.5% | Over 4.5 | 30.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Rennes | 32.6% | Most: Le Mans | 45.9% | ||
| Rennes Over 1.8 | 49.4% | Le Mans Over 1.8 | 59.1% |
Rennes: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Lepaul | 2.93 | 1.25 | 0.7 | 67.4% | 73.8% | 46.6% |
| Amine Gouiri | 2.34 | 1.22 | 0.2 | 50.7% | 39.3% | 10.9% |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 2.6 | 1.21 | 0.59 | 66.5% | 68.0% | 41.3% |
| Albert Grønbæk | 2.63 | 1.11 | 0.28 | 43.6% | 39.4% | 13.5% |
| Mohamed Meïté | 3.24 | 1.05 | 0.44 | 33.8% | 36.4% | 15.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Rennes clean sheet | 33.2% |
|---|---|
| Le Mans clean sheet | 12.4% |
| Rennes win to nil | 28.5% |
| Le Mans win to nil | 7.8% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 59.9% | draw | 21.6% | away | 18.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 81.5% | 12 | 78.5% | X2 | 40.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 76.4% | away | 23.6% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 58.4% | no | 41.6% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 33.8% | away | 12.5% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 29.2% | away | 7.8% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.7% | home_by_2 | 18.3% | home_by_3plus | 19.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 11.6% | away_by_2 | 5.0% | away_by_3plus | 2.0% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 4.7% | 0-1 | 4.1% | 0-2 | 2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.9% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 8.3% | 1-1 | 10.0% | 1-2 | 5.1% |
| 1-3 | 1.9% | 1-4 | 0.5% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.1% | 2-1 | 9.9% | 2-2 | 5.4% |
| 2-3 | 1.9% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 6.4% | 3-1 | 6.9% | 3-2 | 3.7% |
| 3-3 | 1.3% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 3.3% | 4-1 | 3.6% | 4-2 | 2.0% |
| 4-3 | 0.7% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.4% | 5-1 | 1.5% | 5-2 | 0.8% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 2.1% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 10.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 95.3% | under_0.5 | 4.7% | over_1.5 | 82.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 17.1% | over_2.5 | 61.4% | under_2.5 | 38.6% |
| over_3.5 | 39.1% | under_3.5 | 60.9% | over_4.5 | 21.5% |
| under_4.5 | 78.6% | over_5.5 | 10.2% | under_5.5 | 89.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.0% | even | 51.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 87.5% | under_0.5 | 12.5% | over_1.5 | 61.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 38.4% | over_2.5 | 34.7% | under_2.5 | 65.3% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 66.2% | under_0.5 | 33.8% | over_1.5 | 29.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.5% | over_2.5 | 9.6% | under_2.5 | 90.4% |
most
| home | 59.9% | draw | 21.6% | away | 18.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 19.0% | away_+2.5 | 81.0% | home_-1.5 | 37.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 62.8% | home_-0.5 | 59.9% | away_+0.5 | 40.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 81.5% | away_-0.5 | 18.5% | home_+1.5 | 93.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 7.0% | home_+2.5 | 98.0% | away_-2.5 | 2.0% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 4.7% | exact_1 | 12.4% | exact_2 | 21.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.3% | exact_4 | 17.7% | exact_5 | 11.2% |
| exact_6 | 5.9% | exact_7plus | 4.3% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 40.4% | draw | 35.8% | away | 23.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.2% | under_0.5 | 21.8% | over_1.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.0% | over_2.5 | 19.7% | under_2.5 | 80.3% |
btts
| yes | 27.4% | no | 72.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 21.8% | exact_1 | 33.2% | exact_2 | 25.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 12.8% | exact_4plus | 6.9% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 40.0% | draw | 32.2% | away | 27.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 84.1% | under_0.5 | 15.9% | over_1.5 | 54.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 45.2% | over_2.5 | 27.9% | under_2.5 | 72.1% |
btts
| yes | 35.6% | no | 64.4% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 32.2% | H/D | 5.7% | H/A | 2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 14.3% | D/D | 11.5% | D/A | 10.0% |
| A/H | 3.0% | A/D | 4.9% | A/A | 15.9% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 74.3% | under_7.5 | 25.7% | over_8.5 | 62.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 37.1% | over_9.5 | 50.9% | under_9.5 | 49.1% |
| over_10.5 | 39.2% | under_10.5 | 60.8% | over_11.5 | 28.8% |
| under_11.5 | 71.2% | over_12.5 | 20.2% | under_12.5 | 79.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.9% | under_3.5 | 25.2% | over_4.5 | 59.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 40.1% | over_5.5 | 44.8% | under_5.5 | 55.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.8% | under_3.5 | 39.2% | over_4.5 | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.4% | over_5.5 | 28.8% | under_5.5 | 71.2% |
most
| home | 55.5% | draw | 10.5% | away | 34.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.0% | away_+3.5 | 75.0% | home_-1.5 | 44.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 55.4% | home_-0.5 | 55.5% | away_+0.5 | 44.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.0% | away_-0.5 | 34.0% | home_+1.5 | 75.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.6% | home_+3.5 | 89.0% | away_-3.5 | 11.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 64.4% | under_22.5 | 35.6% | over_24.5 | 51.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 48.1% | over_26.5 | 39.7% | under_26.5 | 60.4% |
| over_28.5 | 28.6% | under_28.5 | 71.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 73.4% | under_10.5 | 26.6% | over_12.5 | 57.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 42.9% | over_14.5 | 40.6% | under_14.5 | 59.4% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 55.8% | under_10.5 | 44.2% | over_12.5 | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 62.5% | over_14.5 | 22.7% | under_14.5 | 77.3% |
most
| home | 60.6% | draw | 6.0% | away | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 35.6% | away_+4.5 | 64.4% | home_-2.5 | 48.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 52.0% | home_-0.5 | 60.6% | away_+0.5 | 39.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.5% | away_-0.5 | 33.5% | home_+2.5 | 77.2% |
| away_-2.5 | 22.8% | home_+4.5 | 85.6% | away_-4.5 | 14.4% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 75.2% | under_6.5 | 24.8% | over_7.5 | 63.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 36.4% | over_8.5 | 51.2% | under_8.5 | 48.8% |
| over_9.5 | 39.3% | under_9.5 | 60.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 68.5% | under_3.5 | 31.5% | over_4.5 | 51.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 48.2% | over_5.5 | 36.0% | under_5.5 | 64.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 54.7% | under_3.5 | 45.3% | over_4.5 | 36.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 63.2% | over_5.5 | 22.5% | under_5.5 | 77.5% |
most
| home | 54.2% | draw | 12.2% | away | 33.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 30.1% | away_+2.5 | 69.9% | home_-0.5 | 54.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 45.8% | home_+0.5 | 66.4% | away_-0.5 | 33.6% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.4% | away_-2.5 | 14.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 70.6% | under_2.5 | 29.4% | over_3.5 | 49.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 50.5% | over_4.5 | 30.3% | under_4.5 | 69.7% |
| over_5.5 | 16.3% | under_5.5 | 83.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 49.4% | under_1.5 | 50.6% | over_2.5 | 23.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 76.8% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 59.1% | under_1.5 | 40.9% | over_2.5 | 32.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 67.9% |
most
| home | 32.6% | draw | 21.5% | away | 45.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 16.0% | away_+1.5 | 84.0% | home_-0.5 | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 67.4% | home_+0.5 | 54.1% | away_-0.5 | 45.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 74.1% | away_-1.5 | 25.9% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 72.3% | under_20.5 | 27.7% | over_22.5 | 58.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 41.3% | over_24.5 | 44.4% | under_24.5 | 55.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 72.3% | under_9.5 | 27.7% | over_11.5 | 52.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 47.6% | over_13.5 | 33.2% | under_13.5 | 66.8% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 72.0% | under_9.5 | 28.0% | over_11.5 | 52.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 47.9% | over_13.5 | 32.8% | under_13.5 | 67.2% |
most
| home | 46.6% | draw | 7.2% | away | 46.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.5% | away_+3.5 | 73.5% | home_-0.5 | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 53.4% | home_+2.5 | 67.8% | away_-2.5 | 32.3% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 15.9% | no | 84.2% |
|---|
home
| yes | 6.0% | no | 94.0% |
|---|
away
| yes | 10.5% | no | 89.5% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Rennes predictions · Le Mans predictions · Ligue 1
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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