Ligue 2
Reims vs 
Montpellier Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 40.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 53.6% for over 22.5 to 19.6% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.6%. Head to head on shots, Reims are the model’s pick to have more shots at 62.9%, with a level count at 6.1%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| 24.5 shots | 40.7% | 59.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 29.1% | 70.9% |
| 28.5 shots | 19.6% | 80.5% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
68.3%
50.9%
34.6%
45.9%
28.3%
15.5%
Shot handicap
| Reims line | Reims | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| -2.5 | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| -0.5 | 62.9% | 37.1% |
| +0.5 | 69.0% | 31.0% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 68.8% | 31.2% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 32.5% | 67.5% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
10.8Reims shots per game12.5Reims shots faced per game13.5Montpellier shots per game13.0Montpellier shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Reims.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
40.7%Over 24.5 shots50.9%Reims over 12.5 shots28.3%Montpellier over 12.5 shots56.4%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Reims over 12.5 shots sits at 50.9% and Montpellier at 28.3%. This season Reims have averaged 10.8 shots a game and Montpellier 13.5.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Reims vs Montpellier?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 40.7% for Reims vs Montpellier.
Which team will have more shots in Reims vs Montpellier?
The model rates Reims to take more shots at 62.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 16,705 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Ligue 2, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
