Reims vs Montpellier prediction & probabilities (2026-09-18)

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Reims vs Montpellier: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 18 Sep 2026

Ligue 2
Reims

DWWDW

Fri, 18 Sep 202619:00UK
Montpellier

WWDLW

Model’s top convictions

73%

Reims or draw

70%

Over 1.5 goals

57%

Under 2.5 goals

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Reims44.9%

Win probability · fair 2.23

Top signals

Reims or drawLikely73.3%Fair 1.36
Over 1.5 goalsLikely69.6%Fair 1.44
Under 2.5 goalsClose call57.1%Fair 1.75

Model read

A measured edge to Reims: 45% is the model's line for this Ligue 2 meeting on 18 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 43% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 48%. • Head to head, the last 2 meetings gave 1 wins for Reims, 1 draws and 0 for Montpellier, averaging 1.0 goals a game. • Recent form reads W3 D3 L0 for Reims against W3 D2 L1 for Montpellier. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

High risk

Over 2.5 goals42.9%@ 2.33
Over 9.5 corners42.2%@ 2.37
Over 10.5 corners32.3%@ 3.10
Medium risk

Draw or Montpellier55.1%@ 1.81
Over 8.5 corners53.3%@ 1.88
Not both teams to score51.8%@ 1.93
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.4%@ 7.49
1-0 correct score12.0%@ 8.33
0-0 correct score9.8%@ 10.18

Model vs market

Reims

44.9%

Draw

28.4%

Montpellier

26.7%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely69.6%Fair 1.44
Over 2.5Unlikely42.9%Fair 2.33
BTTS · YesClose call48.2%Fair 2.07

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call53.3%Fair 1.88
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely42.2%Fair 2.37
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely32.3%Fair 3.10
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot23.7%Fair 4.22
Most cornersReims52.7%Montpellier35.9%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsClose call53.6%Fair 1.87
Over 24.5 shotsUnlikely40.7%Fair 2.46
Over 26.5 shotsLong shot29.1%Fair 3.44
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot19.6%Fair 5.12

Recent shot volume

Reims10.8 taken12.5 faced
Montpellier13.5 taken13.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.569.6%2.542.9%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.569.6%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

ReimsDWWDW
MontpellierWWDLW

Last 2 meetings: Reims 1 · 1 draws · Montpellier 0 · 1.0 goals/game.

2026-02-27Montpellier 0-0 Reims
2025-11-24Reims 2-0 Montpellier

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

ReimsMontpellier
League position#2 of 18#3 of 18
Record W-D-L3-3-03-2-1
Current streakW1W1
Points per game2.001.83
Record, home vs away1-2-02-0-1
PPG, home vs away1.672.00
Goals scored per game2.330.83
Goals conceded per game1.330.67
Scored, home vs away2.671.00
Conceded, home vs away2.001.00
1st half goals per game0.830.17
2nd half goals per game1.500.67
Corners won per game1.75.7
Cards per game1.82.7
Fouls per game12.819.0
Red cards this season10
Shots per game10.813.5
Shots faced per game12.513.0
Shots on target per game4.74.7
Over 2.5 rate

83.3%16.7%

BTTS rate

83.3%33.3%

Clean sheets

16.7%66.7%

Rates this season:ReimsMontpellier

League averages this season: 2.46 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 44% · BTTS in 54%. Full league tables & stats →

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Reims win2.23
Draw3.52
Montpellier win3.74
Both teams to score2.07

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.11
Over 1.5 goals1.44
Over 2.5 goals2.33
Over 3.5 goals4.53
Reims most2.23
Montpellier most3.74

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.49
Over 8.5 corners1.83
Over 9.5 corners2.35
Over 10.5 corners3.19
Reims most1.89
Montpellier most2.78

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.32
Over 3.5 cards1.77
Over 4.5 cards2.71
Over 5.5 cards4.70
Reims most2.65
Montpellier most2.41

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.45
Over 7.5 SoT1.77
Over 8.5 SoT2.28
Over 9.5 SoT3.08
Reims most1.86
Montpellier most2.97

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.87
Over 24.5 shots2.46
Over 26.5 shots3.44
Over 28.5 shots5.12
Reims most1.59
Montpellier most3.23

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.09
Over 22.5 fouls1.18
Over 24.5 fouls1.35
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 53.6% Over 24.5 40.7% Over 26.5 29.1% Over 28.5 19.5%
Most: Reims 62.9% Most: Montpellier 31.0%
Reims Over 13.2 42.5% Montpellier Over 13.2 21.2%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 68.8% Over 7.5 56.4% Over 8.5 43.9% Over 9.5 32.5%
Most: Reims 53.9% Most: Montpellier 33.6%
Reims Over 4.2 46.4% Montpellier Over 4.2 31.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 76.0% Over 3.5 56.4% Over 4.5 36.8%
Most: Reims 37.8% Most: Montpellier 41.5%
Reims Over 1.8 57.9% Montpellier Over 1.8 60.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Reims clean sheet 36.4%
Montpellier clean sheet 25.1%
Reims win to nil 26.6%
Montpellier win to nil 15.3%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 44.9% draw 28.4% away 26.7%
double_chance
1X 73.3% 12 71.6% X2 55.1%
dnb
home 62.7% away 37.3%
btts
yes 48.2% no 51.8%
clean_sheet
home 36.5% away 25.1%
win_to_nil
home 26.7% away 15.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.1% home_by_2 13.6% home_by_3plus 8.2%
away_by_1 16.7% away_by_2 7.2% away_by_3plus 2.8%
correct_score
0-0 9.8% 0-1 8.6% 0-2 4.6%
0-3 1.6% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 12.0% 1-1 13.4% 1-2 6.4%
1-3 2.2% 1-4 0.5% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 8.7% 2-1 8.8% 2-2 4.5%
2-3 1.5% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.0% 3-1 4.1% 3-2 2.1%
3-3 0.7% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 1.4% 4-1 1.4% 4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.2% under_0.5 9.8% over_1.5 69.6%
under_1.5 30.4% over_2.5 42.9% under_2.5 57.1%
over_3.5 22.1% under_3.5 77.9% over_4.5 9.6%
under_4.5 90.4% over_5.5 3.6% under_5.5 96.4%
odd_even
odd 48.3% even 51.7%
team_home
over_0.5 74.9% under_0.5 25.1% over_1.5 40.3%
under_1.5 59.7% over_2.5 16.4% under_2.5 83.6%
team_away
over_0.5 63.5% under_0.5 36.5% over_1.5 26.8%
under_1.5 73.3% over_2.5 8.2% under_2.5 91.8%
most
home 44.9% draw 28.4% away 26.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.2% away_+2.5 91.8% home_-1.5 21.8%
away_+1.5 78.2% home_-0.5 44.9% away_+0.5 55.1%
home_+0.5 73.3% away_-0.5 26.7% home_+1.5 90.0%
away_-1.5 10.0% home_+2.5 97.2% away_-2.5 2.8%
total_exact
exact_0 9.8% exact_1 20.6% exact_2 26.7%
exact_3 20.8% exact_4 12.5% exact_5 6.0%
exact_6 2.4% exact_7plus 1.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.0% draw 44.7% away 21.4%
total
over_0.5 65.4% under_0.5 34.6% over_1.5 28.7%
under_1.5 71.3% over_2.5 9.2% under_2.5 90.8%
btts
yes 16.4% no 83.6%
total_exact
exact_0 34.6% exact_1 36.7% exact_2 19.5%
exact_3 6.9% exact_4plus 2.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.0% draw 41.8% away 24.2%
total
over_0.5 69.8% under_0.5 30.2% over_1.5 33.6%
under_1.5 66.4% over_2.5 12.0% under_2.5 88.0%
btts
yes 20.0% no 80.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 27.6% H/D 5.0% H/A 1.4%
D/H 15.2% D/D 18.7% D/A 10.8%
A/H 1.8% A/D 4.5% A/A 15.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 67.1% under_7.5 32.9% over_8.5 54.8%
under_8.5 45.2% over_9.5 42.5% under_9.5 57.5%
over_10.5 31.3% under_10.5 68.7% over_11.5 22.0%
under_11.5 78.0% over_12.5 14.7% under_12.5 85.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.0% under_3.5 31.0% over_4.5 52.8%
under_4.5 47.2% over_5.5 37.5% under_5.5 62.5%
team_away
over_3.5 57.3% under_3.5 42.7% over_4.5 40.0%
under_4.5 60.1% over_5.5 25.6% under_5.5 74.4%
most
home 52.9% draw 11.2% away 35.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.8% away_+3.5 78.2% home_-1.5 41.5%
away_+1.5 58.5% home_-0.5 52.9% away_+0.5 47.1%
home_+0.5 64.1% away_-0.5 35.9% home_+1.5 74.1%
away_-1.5 25.9% home_+3.5 88.8% away_-3.5 11.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 53.6% under_22.5 46.4% over_24.5 40.7%
under_24.5 59.3% over_26.5 29.1% under_26.5 70.9%
over_28.5 19.6% under_28.5 80.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 68.3% under_10.5 31.8% over_12.5 50.9%
under_12.5 49.1% over_14.5 34.6% under_14.5 65.5%
team_away
over_10.5 45.9% under_10.5 54.1% over_12.5 28.3%
under_12.5 71.7% over_14.5 15.5% under_14.5 84.5%
most
home 62.9% draw 6.1% away 31.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.8% away_+4.5 63.2% home_-2.5 49.8%
away_+2.5 50.2% home_-0.5 62.9% away_+0.5 37.1%
home_+0.5 69.0% away_-0.5 31.0% home_+2.5 79.7%
away_-2.5 20.3% home_+4.5 87.8% away_-4.5 12.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 68.8% under_6.5 31.2% over_7.5 56.4%
under_7.5 43.6% over_8.5 43.9% under_8.5 56.1%
over_9.5 32.5% under_9.5 67.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.5% under_3.5 36.5% over_4.5 46.4%
under_4.5 53.6% over_5.5 31.3% under_5.5 68.7%
team_away
over_3.5 49.3% under_3.5 50.7% over_4.5 31.9%
under_4.5 68.1% over_5.5 18.9% under_5.5 81.2%
most
home 53.8% draw 12.5% away 33.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.3% away_+2.5 70.7% home_-0.5 53.8%
away_+0.5 46.2% home_+0.5 66.4% away_-0.5 33.6%
home_+2.5 85.7% away_-2.5 14.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 76.0% under_2.5 24.0% over_3.5 56.4%
under_3.5 43.6% over_4.5 36.8% under_4.5 63.2%
over_5.5 21.3% under_5.5 78.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 57.9% under_1.5 42.1% over_2.5 30.9%
under_2.5 69.2%
team_away
over_1.5 60.5% under_1.5 39.5% over_2.5 33.4%
under_2.5 66.6%
most
home 37.8% draw 20.7% away 41.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.3% away_+1.5 79.7% home_-0.5 37.8%
away_+0.5 62.2% home_+0.5 58.5% away_-0.5 41.5%
home_+1.5 76.8% away_-1.5 23.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 91.8% under_20.5 8.2% over_22.5 84.5%
under_22.5 15.5% over_24.5 74.2% under_24.5 25.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 86.2% under_9.5 13.8% over_11.5 70.8%
under_11.5 29.2% over_13.5 51.7% under_13.5 48.3%
team_away
over_9.5 89.1% under_9.5 10.9% over_11.5 75.7%
under_11.5 24.3% over_13.5 57.7% under_13.5 42.3%
most
home 42.3% draw 6.9% away 50.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.7% away_+3.5 76.3% home_-0.5 42.3%
away_+0.5 57.7% home_+2.5 62.7% away_-2.5 37.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 20.7% no 79.3%
home
yes 10.6% no 89.4%
away
yes 11.2% no 88.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Reims predictions · Montpellier predictions · Ligue 2

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Ligue 2ReimsMontpellierTrack record