Ligue 2
Reims vs 
Montpellier Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 56.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 76.0% for over 2.5 to 21.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.4%. Head to head on cards, Montpellier are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.5%, with a level count at 20.7%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 76.0% | 24.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 21.3% | 78.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
57.9%
30.9%
60.5%
33.4%
Card handicap
| Reims line | Reims | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.3% | 79.7% |
| -0.5 | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| +0.5 | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| +1.5 | 76.8% | 23.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 91.8% | 8.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 84.5% | 15.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 74.2% | 25.8% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Reims cards per game12.8Reims fouls per game2.7Montpellier cards per game19.0Montpellier fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Reims vs Montpellier. Slightly more cards are projected for Montpellier for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
56.4%Over 3.5 cards20.7%Any red card57.9%Reims over 1.5 cards60.5%Montpellier over 1.5 cards84.5%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Reims over 1.5 cards sits at 57.9% and Montpellier at 60.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 20.7% (Reims 10.6%, Montpellier 11.2%). This season Reims have averaged 1.8 cards a game and Montpellier 2.7.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Reims vs Montpellier?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 56.4% for Reims vs Montpellier.
Will there be a red card in Reims vs Montpellier?
The model rates a red card for either side at 20.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Reims vs Montpellier?
The model rates Montpellier to pick up more cards at 41.5%, with a level count at 20.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,115 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
