Ligue 2Red Star vs 
Metz Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Home or Draw at 78.7%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Red Star are favoured at 52.8%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Red Star by 1 | 24.2% |
| Red Star by 2 | 16.4% |
| Red Star by 3+ | 12.3% |
| Metz by 1 | 13.8% |
| Metz by 2 | 5.5% |
| Metz by 3+ | 2.0% |
| Draw | 25.9% |
Goal handicap
| Red Star line | Red Star | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 12.3% | 87.7% |
| -1.5 | 28.7% | 71.3% |
| -0.5 | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| +0.5 | 78.7% | 21.3% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Red Star goals scored per game1.2Red Star goals conceded per game1.6Metz goals scored per game0.8Metz goals conceded per gameDouble chance is the cautious read on the result market. The highest-probability cover is Red Star or draw on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
49.8%Both Teams to Score47.6%Over 2.5 goalsReading the match, Red Star are favoured at 52.8%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Red Star 1 · 1 draws · Metz 3 · 2.4 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Red Star vs Metz?
Home or Draw is the highest-probability double chance for Red Star vs Metz at 78.7%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Red Star vs Metz?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Red Star at 71.3% and Metz at 28.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 39,986 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 2, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.