La LigaRayo Vallecano vs 
Alaves Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 47.2%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 72.2% for over 7.5 to 18.2% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.2%. Between the two sides, Rayo Vallecano are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 58.2%, with a level count at 10.4%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| 8.5 corners | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| 9.5 corners | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| 10.5 corners | 36.6% | 63.4% |
| 11.5 corners | 26.4% | 73.6% |
| 12.5 corners | 18.2% | 81.8% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
75.1%
60.2%
45.0%
57.0%
39.6%
25.2%
Corner handicap
| Rayo Vallecano line | Rayo Vallecano | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 26.8% | 73.2% |
| -1.5 | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| -0.5 | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| +0.5 | 68.6% | 31.4% |
Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Rayo Vallecano.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Rayo Vallecano over 4.5 corners sits at 60.2% and Alaves at 39.6%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 48.2% for Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves.
Which team will win the corner count in Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
The model rates Rayo Vallecano to win the corner count at 58.2%, with a level count at 10.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,548 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.