La Liga
Real Madrid vs 
Vallecano Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 51.2%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.8% for over 7.5 to 21.3% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.7%. Between the two sides, Real Madrid are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 60.9%, with a level count at 10.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 75.8% | 24.2% |
| 8.5 corners | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| 9.5 corners | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| 10.5 corners | 40.9% | 59.1% |
| 11.5 corners | 30.3% | 69.7% |
| 12.5 corners | 21.3% | 78.6% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
78.6%
64.7%
49.8%
57.9%
40.4%
25.9%
Corner handicap
| Real Madrid line | Real Madrid | Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 29.7% | 70.3% |
| -1.5 | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| -0.5 | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| +0.5 | 70.9% | 29.1% |
Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Real Madrid.
In-depth analysis
For the team lines, Real Madrid over 4.5 corners sits at 64.7% and Vallecano at 40.4%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Real Madrid vs Vallecano?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 52.7% for Real Madrid vs Vallecano.
Which team will win the corner count in Real Madrid vs Vallecano?
The model rates Real Madrid to win the corner count at 60.9%, with a level count at 10.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.