La LigaRayo Vallecano vs 
Alaves Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 68.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 84.2% for over 2.5 to 33.4% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.4%. Head to head on cards, Alaves are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.0%, with a level count at 18.4%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 84.2% | 15.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 68.5% | 31.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 33.4% | 66.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
62.6%
36.3%
71.7%
46.8%
Card handicap
| Rayo Vallecano line | Rayo Vallecano | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.7% | 81.3% |
| -0.5 | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| +0.5 | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| +1.5 | 69.8% | 30.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 84.5% | 15.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 74.3% | 25.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 61.8% | 38.2% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves. The model leans toward Alaves for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
68.5%Over 3.5 cards23.4%Any red card62.6%Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 cards71.7%Alaves over 1.5 cards74.3%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 cards sits at 62.6% and Alaves at 71.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 23.4% (Rayo Vallecano 13.6%, Alaves 11.4%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 68.5% for Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves.
Will there be a red card in Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
The model rates a red card for either side at 23.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
The model rates Alaves to pick up more cards at 48.0%, with a level count at 18.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.