Arsenal vs Coventry prediction & probabilities (2026-08-21)

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Arsenal vs Coventry: model prediction

Premier League
Arsenal

WWWWW

Fri, 21 Aug 202620:00UK
Coventry
Model’s top convictions

92%

Arsenal or draw

80%

Over 1.5 goals

60%

Over 8.5 corners

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
ArsenalWin probability
75.8%
Top 3 convictions

Arsenal or draw91.9%High probabilityPays @ 1.09
Over 1.5 goals79.5%High probabilityPays @ 1.26
Over 8.5 corners60.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.66

Model read

▾

"Arsenal or Coventry? We publish probabilities, not certainties." On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Arsenal heavy favourites at 76% when Arsenal meet Coventry in the Premier League on 21 August 2026. No strong lean on goals (56% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. As a promoted side, Coventry carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Squad notes: Arsenal have J.Timber ruled out, Saliba ruled out, White ruled out, Mikel Merino, Eberechi Eze, Martin Odegaard, Jurrien Timber ruled out. Gabriel Jesus drives the home shot volume, 1.7 on target per 90. The engine passes here; discipline beats action.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners40.1%@ 2.49
Over 11.5 corners31.3%@ 3.19
Medium risk

Not both teams to score56.5%@ 1.77
Over 2.5 goals56.3%@ 1.78
Over 9.5 corners49.9%@ 2.00
Random finds

2-0 correct score13.8%@ 7.25
1-0 correct score11.7%@ 8.55
3-0 correct score10.5%@ 9.51

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Arsenal

75.8%

Draw

16.2%

Coventry

8.1%

Model

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.579.5%

High probability

Over 2.556.3%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes43.5%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.2%

Strong chance

Over 9.549.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.540.1%

Toss-up

Over 11.531.3%

Toss-up

Most cornersArsenal 58.2% · Coventry 31.7%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.579.5%2.556.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.579.5%

Discipline: NO_ODDS.

Form & head-to-head

ArsenalWWWWW

Referee history

Arsenal
C Kavanagh5 matches · team cards 1.8/g · match 4.6/g
A Taylor4 matches · team cards 2.5/g · match 4.0/g
D England3 matches · team cards 1.3/g · match 4.0/g

Most-seen referees this season, real match data. We never claim who officiates this fixture.

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Gabriel JesusArsenal · key player
To score17.5%

@ 5.71

1+ on target44.0%

@ 2.27

2+ shots35.9%

@ 2.79

Shots/90 3.6SoT/90 1.66Goals/90 0.55
Bukayo SakaArsenal · in form
To score20.6%

@ 4.85

1+ on target57.6%

@ 1.74

2+ shots70.5%

@ 1.42

Shots/90 3.1SoT/90 1.08Goals/90 0.29
Gabriel MartinelliArsenal · in form
To score13.2%

@ 7.58

1+ on target43.5%

@ 2.30

2+ shots39.0%

@ 2.56

Shots/90 2.29SoT/90 0.97Goals/90 0.24

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Arsenal win1.35
Draw5.71
Coventry win11.57
Both teams to score2.30

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.26
Over 2.5 goals1.78
Over 3.5 goals2.95
Arsenal most1.35
Coventry most11.57

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.34
Over 8.5 corners1.58
Over 9.5 corners1.94
Over 10.5 corners2.49
Arsenal most1.71
Coventry most3.14

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.44
Over 3.5 cards2.08
Over 4.5 cards3.45
Over 5.5 cards6.52
Arsenal most3.61
Coventry most1.95

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.50
Over 7.5 SoT1.85
Over 8.5 SoT2.38
Over 9.5 SoT3.23
Arsenal most1.61
Coventry most3.82

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.67
Over 24.5 shots2.09
Over 26.5 shots2.73
Over 28.5 shots3.78
Arsenal most1.48
Coventry most3.65

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.76
Over 22.5 fouls2.46
Over 24.5 fouls3.81

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • J.TimberArsenalOut0% to play
  • SalibaArsenalOut0% to play
  • WhiteArsenalOut0% to play
  • Mikel Merino, Eberechi Eze, Martin Odegaard, Jurrien TimberArsenalOut
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 66.6% Over 7.5 54.1% Over 8.5 41.9% Over 9.5 31.0%
Most: Arsenal 62.2% Most: Coventry 26.2%
Arsenal Over 4.2 50.6% Coventry Over 4.2 24.6%

Cards

Over 2.5 69.4% Over 3.5 48.1% Over 4.5 29.0%
Most: Arsenal 27.7% Most: Coventry 51.2%
Arsenal Over 1.8 44.1% Coventry Over 1.8 61.6%

Arsenal: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Gabriel Jesus 3.6 1.66 0.55 44.0% 35.9% 17.5%
Bukayo Saka 3.1 1.08 0.29 57.6% 70.5% 20.6%
Gabriel Martinelli 2.29 0.97 0.24 43.5% 39.0% 13.2%
Kai Havertz 2.6 0.91 0.4 50.9% 60.3% 26.8%
Eberechi Eze 2.79 0.88 0.34 43.0% 53.2% 19.5%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 73.9% draw 17.5% away 8.6%
double_chance
1X 91.4% 12 82.5% X2 26.1%
dnb
home 89.5% away 10.5%
btts
yes 43.5% no 56.5%
clean_sheet
home 52.0% away 10.2%
win_to_nil
home 46.3% away 4.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.3% home_by_2 22.1% home_by_3plus 28.5%
away_by_1 6.4% away_by_2 1.8% away_by_3plus 0.4%
correct_score
0-0 5.7% 0-1 3.1% 0-2 1.1%
0-3 0.3% 0-4 0.0% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 11.7% 1-1 8.3% 1-2 2.6%
1-3 0.6% 1-4 0.1% 1-5 0.0%
2-0 13.8% 2-1 9.0% 2-2 3.0%
2-3 0.7% 2-4 0.1% 2-5 0.0%
3-0 10.5% 3-1 6.9% 3-2 2.3%
3-3 0.5% 3-4 0.1% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 6.0% 4-1 3.9% 4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 2.8% 5-1 1.8% 5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 2.9%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 0.0% p 13.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.3% under_0.5 5.7% over_1.5 79.6%
under_1.5 20.5% over_2.5 56.3% under_2.5 43.7%
over_3.5 33.9% under_3.5 66.1% over_4.5 17.5%
under_4.5 82.5% over_5.5 7.8% under_5.5 92.2%
odd_even
odd 49.1% even 50.9%
team_home
over_0.5 89.8% under_0.5 10.2% over_1.5 66.6%
under_1.5 33.5% over_2.5 40.0% under_2.5 60.0%
team_away
over_0.5 48.0% under_0.5 52.0% over_1.5 14.0%
under_1.5 86.0% over_2.5 2.9% under_2.5 97.1%
most
home 73.9% draw 17.5% away 8.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 28.5% away_+2.5 71.5% home_-1.5 50.6%
away_+1.5 49.4% home_-0.5 73.9% away_+0.5 26.1%
home_+0.5 91.4% away_-0.5 8.6% home_+1.5 97.8%
away_-1.5 2.2% home_+2.5 99.6% away_-2.5 0.4%
total_exact
exact_0 5.7% exact_1 14.8% exact_2 23.2%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.5% exact_5 9.7%
exact_6 4.8% exact_7plus 3.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 50.7% draw 38.0% away 11.4%
total
over_0.5 70.6% under_0.5 29.4% over_1.5 34.6%
under_1.5 65.4% over_2.5 12.6% under_2.5 87.4%
btts
yes 15.4% no 84.6%
total_exact
exact_0 29.4% exact_1 36.0% exact_2 22.0%
exact_3 9.0% exact_4plus 3.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 47.8% draw 34.5% away 17.7%
total
over_0.5 78.1% under_0.5 21.9% over_1.5 44.9%
under_1.5 55.1% over_2.5 19.6% under_2.5 80.4%
btts
yes 25.1% no 74.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 44.6% H/D 4.8% H/A 1.3%
D/H 18.2% D/D 13.1% D/A 6.7%
A/H 2.0% A/D 3.0% A/A 6.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.6% under_7.5 25.4% over_8.5 63.5%
under_8.5 36.5% over_9.5 51.7% under_9.5 48.4%
over_10.5 40.1% under_10.5 59.9% over_11.5 29.8%
under_11.5 70.2% over_12.5 21.1% under_12.5 78.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.0% under_3.5 24.0% over_4.5 62.0%
under_4.5 38.0% over_5.5 47.4% under_5.5 52.6%
team_away
over_3.5 58.3% under_3.5 41.7% over_4.5 41.5%
under_4.5 58.5% over_5.5 27.4% under_5.5 72.7%
most
home 58.3% draw 9.9% away 31.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.5% away_+3.5 71.5% home_-1.5 48.0%
away_+1.5 52.0% home_-0.5 58.3% away_+0.5 41.7%
home_+0.5 68.2% away_-0.5 31.8% home_+1.5 76.9%
away_-1.5 23.1% home_+3.5 89.5% away_-3.5 10.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 59.8% under_22.5 40.3% over_24.5 47.9%
under_24.5 52.1% over_26.5 36.6% under_26.5 63.4%
over_28.5 26.4% under_28.5 73.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.7% under_10.5 26.3% over_12.5 58.9%
under_12.5 41.1% over_14.5 43.8% under_14.5 56.2%
team_away
over_10.5 46.1% under_10.5 53.9% over_12.5 29.7%
under_12.5 70.3% over_14.5 17.5% under_14.5 82.5%
most
home 67.4% draw 5.3% away 27.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 43.9% away_+4.5 56.1% home_-2.5 55.9%
away_+2.5 44.1% home_-0.5 67.4% away_+0.5 32.6%
home_+0.5 72.6% away_-0.5 27.4% home_+2.5 81.7%
away_-2.5 18.3% home_+4.5 88.6% away_-4.5 11.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 66.6% under_6.5 33.4% over_7.5 54.1%
under_7.5 45.9% over_8.5 41.9% under_8.5 58.1%
over_9.5 31.0% under_9.5 69.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 66.8% under_3.5 33.2% over_4.5 50.6%
under_4.5 49.4% over_5.5 35.6% under_5.5 64.4%
team_away
over_3.5 40.8% under_3.5 59.2% over_4.5 24.6%
under_4.5 75.4% over_5.5 13.6% under_5.5 86.4%
most
home 62.2% draw 11.6% away 26.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 37.1% away_+2.5 62.9% home_-0.5 62.2%
away_+0.5 37.8% home_+0.5 73.8% away_-0.5 26.2%
home_+2.5 90.1% away_-2.5 9.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 69.4% under_2.5 30.6% over_3.5 48.1%
under_3.5 51.9% over_4.5 29.0% under_4.5 71.0%
over_5.5 15.3% under_5.5 84.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 44.1% under_1.5 55.9% over_2.5 19.1%
under_2.5 81.0%
team_away
over_1.5 61.6% under_1.5 38.4% over_2.5 34.6%
under_2.5 65.4%
most
home 27.7% draw 21.1% away 51.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 12.6% away_+1.5 87.4% home_-0.5 27.7%
away_+0.5 72.3% home_+0.5 48.8% away_-0.5 51.2%
home_+1.5 69.8% away_-1.5 30.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 56.9% under_20.5 43.1% over_22.5 40.6%
under_22.5 59.4% over_24.5 26.2% under_24.5 73.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 58.0% under_9.5 42.1% over_11.5 34.8%
under_11.5 65.2% over_13.5 17.3% under_13.5 82.7%
team_away
over_9.5 66.7% under_9.5 33.3% over_11.5 44.0%
under_11.5 56.0% over_13.5 24.3% under_13.5 75.7%
most
home 39.4% draw 8.2% away 52.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 18.6% away_+3.5 81.4% home_-0.5 39.4%
away_+0.5 60.7% home_+2.5 63.8% away_-2.5 36.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 8.4% no 91.6%
home
yes 3.0% no 97.0%
away
yes 5.5% no 94.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Arsenal predictions · Coventry predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

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