ChampionshipQPR vs Cardiff Corners
Result
We called Over 9.5 at 56.6% and it missed (7 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 54.8%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 78.6% for over 7.5 to 24.5% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.8%. Between the two sides, QPR are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 58.1%, with a level count at 10.2%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 78.6% | 21.4% |
| 8.5 corners | 68.2% | 31.9% |
| 9.5 corners | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| 10.5 corners | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| 11.5 corners | 33.9% | 66.1% |
| 12.5 corners | 24.5% | 75.5% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
79.1%
65.3%
50.3%
62.8%
45.6%
30.4%
Corner handicap
| QPR line | QPR | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 27.5% | 72.5% |
| -1.5 | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| -0.5 | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| +0.5 | 68.3% | 31.7% |
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to QPR.
In-depth analysis
For the team lines, QPR over 4.5 corners sits at 65.3% and Cardiff at 45.6%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in QPR vs Cardiff?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 56.6% for QPR vs Cardiff.
Which team will win the corner count in QPR vs Cardiff?
Before kickoff, the model rated QPR to win the corner count at 58.1%, with a level count at 10.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.