QPR vs Cardiff prediction & probabilities (2026-09-02)

By /

QPR vs Cardiff: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 2 Sep 2026

Championship
QPR

LLWDW

Full time2-1Wed, 2 Sep 202619:45UK
Cardiff

DLDDD

Model’s top convictions

79%

QPR or draw

77%

Over 1.5 goals

65%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

QPR 2-1 Cardiff
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was QPR at 54.2%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 52.3% and it landed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 76.9% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 69.9% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 53.2% and it landed. We called Yes at 78.8% and it landed. We called Yes at 73.6% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 56.6% and it missed (7 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 50.4% and it landed (2 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 50.0% and it missed (29 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 62.3% and it missed (7 shots on target). We called No at 94.1% and it landed.

Match data QPR Cardiff
Goals, 1st half 1 0
Goals, 2nd half 1 1
Shots 20 9
Shots on target 4 3
Corners 3 4
Yellow cards 0 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 10 12

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
QPRWin probability
54.2%
Top 3 convictions

QPR or draw78.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.27
Over 1.5 goals76.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.30
Over 8.5 corners65.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.53

Model read

▾

"54% on QPR is a measurement, not a promise." On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes QPR heavy favourites at 54% when QPR meet Cardiff in the Championship on 2 September 2026. Notably, the model is warmer on QPR than the market (51%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. Totals sit close to the fence: 52% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 53%. Recent form reads W2 D1 L3 for QPR against W0 D5 L1 for Cardiff. As a promoted side, Cardiff carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for QPR, 2 draws and 1 for Cardiff at 1.6 goals per match. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.025 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Draw or Cardiff45.8%@ 2.18
Over 10.5 corners44.4%@ 2.25
Over 11.5 corners34.7%@ 2.88
Medium risk

Over 9.5 corners54.8%@ 1.82
Both teams to score53.2%@ 1.88
Over 2.5 goals52.3%@ 1.91
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.7%@ 8.53
1-0 correct score10.5%@ 9.57
2-1 correct score9.8%@ 10.21

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

QPR

54.2%+3.5%

Draw

24.6%-0.6%

Cardiff

21.2%-2.9%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.025 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.576.9%

Strong chance

Over 2.552.3%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes53.2%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.565.4%

Strong chance

Over 9.554.8%

Good chance

Over 10.544.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.534.7%

Toss-up

Most cornersQPR58.0%Cardiff31.7%

Shots markets

Over 22.562.5%

Strong chance

Over 24.550.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.537.8%

Toss-up

Over 28.526.9%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.576.9%2.552.3%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.576.9%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

QPRLLWDW
CardiffDLDDD

Last 5 meetings: QPR 2 · 2 draws · Cardiff 1 · 1.6 goals/game.

2025-04-05QPR 0-0 Cardiff
2024-11-27Cardiff 0-2 QPR
2024-01-01QPR 1-2 Cardiff
2023-08-12Cardiff 1-2 QPR
2022-12-26Cardiff 0-0 QPR

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

QPRCardiff
League position#4 of 24#14 of 24
Record W-D-L2-1-00-3-0
Current streakW1D3
Record, home vs away0-1-00-1-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.03 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 75% · BTTS in 78%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
QPR win1.861.85
Draw3.604.07
Cardiff win3.754.72
Over 2.5 goals1.731.91
Under 2.5 goals2.102.10

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

QPR win1.85
Draw4.06
Cardiff win4.71
Both teams to score1.88

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.30
Over 2.5 goals1.91
Over 3.5 goals3.32
QPR most1.85
Cardiff most4.71

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.27
Over 8.5 corners1.47
Over 9.5 corners1.77
Over 10.5 corners2.23
QPR most1.72
Cardiff most3.15

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.41
Over 3.5 cards2.01
Over 4.5 cards3.29
Over 5.5 cards6.12
QPR most2.82
Cardiff most2.33

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.35
Over 7.5 SoT1.61
Over 8.5 SoT2.01
Over 9.5 SoT2.63
QPR most1.77
Cardiff most3.19

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.60
Over 24.5 shots2.00
Over 26.5 shots2.65
Over 28.5 shots3.72
QPR most1.55
Cardiff most3.36

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.80
Over 22.5 fouls2.50
Over 24.5 fouls3.83
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 74.0% Over 7.5 62.2% Over 8.5 49.9% Over 9.5 38.0%
Most: QPR 56.6% Most: Cardiff 31.4%
QPR Over 4.2 52.4% Cardiff Over 4.2 34.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 70.7% Over 3.5 49.6% Over 4.5 30.4%
Most: QPR 35.4% Most: Cardiff 42.9%
QPR Over 1.8 51.7% Cardiff Over 1.8 57.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

QPR clean sheet 35.9%
Cardiff clean sheet 17.3%
QPR win to nil 29.1%
Cardiff win to nil 10.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 54.2% draw 24.6% away 21.2%
double_chance
1X 78.8% 12 75.4% X2 45.8%
dnb
home 71.9% away 28.1%
btts
yes 53.2% no 46.8%
clean_sheet
home 36.3% away 17.3%
win_to_nil
home 29.5% away 10.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.6% home_by_2 16.8% home_by_3plus 13.8%
away_by_1 13.4% away_by_2 5.6% away_by_3plus 2.2%
correct_score
0-0 6.8% 0-1 5.8% 0-2 3.2%
0-3 1.1% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.5% 1-1 11.7% 1-2 5.7%
1-3 1.9% 1-4 0.5% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.7% 2-1 9.8% 2-2 5.0%
2-3 1.7% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 5.7% 3-1 5.7% 3-2 2.9%
3-3 1.0% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 2.5% 4-1 2.5% 4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.9% 5-1 0.9% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.0%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.2% under_0.5 6.8% over_1.5 76.9%
under_1.5 23.1% over_2.5 52.3% under_2.5 47.7%
over_3.5 30.1% under_3.5 69.9% over_4.5 14.7%
under_4.5 85.3% over_5.5 6.2% under_5.5 93.8%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 82.7% under_0.5 17.3% over_1.5 52.3%
under_1.5 47.7% over_2.5 25.7% under_2.5 74.3%
team_away
over_0.5 63.7% under_0.5 36.3% over_1.5 26.9%
under_1.5 73.1% over_2.5 8.3% under_2.5 91.7%
most
home 54.2% draw 24.6% away 21.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 13.8% away_+2.5 86.3% home_-1.5 30.6%
away_+1.5 69.4% home_-0.5 54.2% away_+0.5 45.8%
home_+0.5 78.8% away_-0.5 21.2% home_+1.5 92.2%
away_-1.5 7.8% home_+2.5 97.8% away_-2.5 2.2%
total_exact
exact_0 6.8% exact_1 16.3% exact_2 24.6%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 15.4% exact_5 8.5%
exact_6 3.9% exact_7plus 2.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 35.4% draw 35.9% away 28.7%
total
over_0.5 78.8% under_0.5 21.2% over_1.5 46.0%
under_1.5 54.0% over_2.5 20.5% under_2.5 79.6%
btts
yes 29.0% no 71.0%
total_exact
exact_0 21.2% exact_1 32.9% exact_2 25.5%
exact_3 13.2% exact_4plus 7.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 37.3% draw 39.1% away 23.7%
total
over_0.5 73.6% under_0.5 26.4% over_1.5 38.5%
under_1.5 61.5% over_2.5 15.1% under_2.5 84.9%
btts
yes 23.0% no 77.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 29.3% H/D 4.7% H/A 1.4%
D/H 13.4% D/D 14.0% D/A 8.5%
A/H 2.6% A/D 5.8% A/A 20.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 78.6% under_7.5 21.4% over_8.5 68.2%
under_8.5 31.9% over_9.5 56.6% under_9.5 43.4%
over_10.5 44.8% under_10.5 55.2% over_11.5 33.9%
under_11.5 66.1% over_12.5 24.5% under_12.5 75.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 79.1% under_3.5 20.9% over_4.5 65.3%
under_4.5 34.7% over_5.5 50.3% under_5.5 49.7%
team_away
over_3.5 62.8% under_3.5 37.2% over_4.5 45.6%
under_4.5 54.4% over_5.5 30.4% under_5.5 69.6%
most
home 58.1% draw 10.2% away 31.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.5% away_+3.5 72.5% home_-1.5 47.4%
away_+1.5 52.6% home_-0.5 58.1% away_+0.5 41.9%
home_+0.5 68.3% away_-0.5 31.7% home_+1.5 77.3%
away_-1.5 22.8% home_+3.5 90.1% away_-3.5 10.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 62.5% under_22.5 37.5% over_24.5 50.0%
under_24.5 50.0% over_26.5 37.8% under_26.5 62.2%
over_28.5 26.9% under_28.5 73.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.4% under_10.5 25.6% over_12.5 58.5%
under_12.5 41.6% over_14.5 42.1% under_14.5 58.0%
team_away
over_10.5 51.3% under_10.5 48.7% over_12.5 33.3%
under_12.5 66.7% over_14.5 19.4% under_14.5 80.6%
most
home 64.5% draw 5.8% away 29.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 39.4% away_+4.5 60.6% home_-2.5 52.0%
away_+2.5 48.0% home_-0.5 64.5% away_+0.5 35.6%
home_+0.5 70.2% away_-0.5 29.8% home_+2.5 80.3%
away_-2.5 19.7% home_+4.5 87.9% away_-4.5 12.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 74.0% under_6.5 26.0% over_7.5 62.3%
under_7.5 37.8% over_8.5 49.9% under_8.5 50.1%
over_9.5 38.0% under_9.5 62.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.0% under_3.5 31.0% over_4.5 52.4%
under_4.5 47.6% over_5.5 36.8% under_5.5 63.2%
team_away
over_3.5 51.8% under_3.5 48.2% over_4.5 34.1%
under_4.5 65.9% over_5.5 20.4% under_5.5 79.6%
most
home 56.6% draw 12.0% away 31.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 32.2% away_+2.5 67.9% home_-0.5 56.6%
away_+0.5 43.4% home_+0.5 68.6% away_-0.5 31.4%
home_+2.5 86.9% away_-2.5 13.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 70.7% under_2.5 29.3% over_3.5 49.6%
under_3.5 50.4% over_4.5 30.4% under_4.5 69.6%
over_5.5 16.3% under_5.5 83.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 51.7% under_1.5 48.3% over_2.5 25.2%
under_2.5 74.8%
team_away
over_1.5 57.2% under_1.5 42.8% over_2.5 30.2%
under_2.5 69.8%
most
home 35.4% draw 21.7% away 42.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.0% away_+1.5 82.0% home_-0.5 35.4%
away_+0.5 64.6% home_+0.5 57.1% away_-0.5 42.9%
home_+1.5 76.4% away_-1.5 23.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 55.7% under_20.5 44.3% over_22.5 39.9%
under_22.5 60.1% over_24.5 26.1% under_24.5 73.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 60.0% under_9.5 40.0% over_11.5 37.6%
under_11.5 62.4% over_13.5 19.8% under_13.5 80.2%
team_away
over_9.5 62.6% under_9.5 37.4% over_11.5 40.3%
under_11.5 59.7% over_13.5 21.9% under_13.5 78.1%
most
home 44.1% draw 8.1% away 47.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.5% away_+3.5 77.5% home_-0.5 44.1%
away_+0.5 55.9% home_+2.5 67.6% away_-2.5 32.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 5.9% no 94.1%
home
yes 1.4% no 98.6%
away
yes 4.6% no 95.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: QPR predictions · Cardiff predictions · Championship

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

ChampionshipQPRCardiffTrack record