Primeira Liga
Porto vs 
Arouca Shots
Result
Settled, final score 2-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 42.3%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 54.4% for over 22.5 to 21.7% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.4%. On the shot count, Porto are the model’s pick to have more shots at 62.3%, with a level count at 5.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| 24.5 shots | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| 26.5 shots | 31.1% | 68.9% |
| 28.5 shots | 21.7% | 78.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
67.7%
51.5%
36.1%
46.5%
29.8%
17.3%
Shot handicap
| Porto line | Porto | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| -2.5 | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| -0.5 | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| +0.5 | 68.1% | 31.9% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 66.0% | 34.0% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 40.1% | 59.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 28.8% | 71.2% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Porto.
In-depth analysis
42.3%Over 24.5 shots51.5%Porto over 12.5 shots29.8%Arouca over 12.5 shots52.9%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Porto over 12.5 shots sits at 51.5% and Arouca at 29.8%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Porto vs Arouca?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 42.3% for Porto vs Arouca.
Which team will have more shots in Porto vs Arouca?
Before kickoff, the model rated Porto to take more shots at 62.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.