Eyupspor vs Gaziantep: model prediction
Süper LigOver 1.5 goals
Eyupspor or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Eyupspor at 44.7%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 50.8% and it landed (1 goals). We called Yes at 53.5% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The model leans Eyupspor at 45% when Eyupspor host Gaziantep in the Süper Lig on 23 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Our number sits above the market's 34% for Eyupspor. The gap itself is information. 2) No strong lean on goals (49% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) The run in: Eyupspor arrive W3 D2 L1, Gaziantep W1 D1 L4. History adds colour: across the last 4 meetings it is 3 wins for Eyupspor, 0 draws and 1 for Gaziantep at 3.8 goals per match. Verdict: no bet. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.45, zone (0.45, 0.7)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
44.7%+11.1%
26.9%-0.7%
28.4%-10.4%
outside trust zone (model prob 0.45, zone (0.45, 0.7))
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Eyupspor 3 · 0 draws · Gaziantep 1 · 3.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Eyupspor
GaziantepBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 75.9% | Over 7.5 | 64.6% | Over 8.5 | 52.5% | Over 9.5 | 40.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Eyupspor | 55.0% | Most: Gaziantep | 33.0% | ||||
| Eyupspor Over 4.2 | 53.2% | Gaziantep Over 4.2 | 37.2% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 85.9% | Over 3.5 | 70.8% | Over 4.5 | 52.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Eyupspor | 39.4% | Most: Gaziantep | 41.9% | ||
| Eyupspor Over 1.8 | 68.6% | Gaziantep Over 1.8 | 70.1% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Eyupspor clean sheet | 31.7% |
|---|---|
| Gaziantep clean sheet | 22.3% |
| Eyupspor win to nil | 24.0% |
| Gaziantep win to nil | 14.6% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 44.7% | draw | 26.9% | away | 28.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 71.6% | 12 | 73.1% | X2 | 55.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 61.1% | away | 38.9% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 53.5% | no | 46.5% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 31.8% | away | 22.4% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 24.1% | away | 14.6% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.2% | home_by_2 | 13.6% | home_by_3plus | 8.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 16.8% | away_by_2 | 8.0% | away_by_3plus | 3.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.7% | 0-1 | 7.5% | 0-2 | 4.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.8% | 0-4 | 0.5% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | 1-1 | 12.8% | 1-2 | 7.0% |
| 1-3 | 2.7% | 1-4 | 0.8% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 8.0% | 2-1 | 9.1% | 2-2 | 5.2% |
| 2-3 | 2.0% | 2-4 | 0.6% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.0% | 3-1 | 4.6% | 3-2 | 2.6% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.5% | 4-1 | 1.7% | 4-2 | 1.0% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.4% | 5-1 | 0.5% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.6% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.3% | under_0.5 | 7.7% | over_1.5 | 74.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 25.3% | over_2.5 | 49.3% | under_2.5 | 50.7% |
| over_3.5 | 27.4% | under_3.5 | 72.6% | over_4.5 | 12.9% |
| under_4.5 | 87.1% | over_5.5 | 5.2% | under_5.5 | 94.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 77.6% | under_0.5 | 22.4% | over_1.5 | 44.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.9% | over_2.5 | 19.1% | under_2.5 | 81.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 68.2% | under_0.5 | 31.8% | over_1.5 | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.2% | over_2.5 | 10.9% | under_2.5 | 89.1% |
most
| home | 44.7% | draw | 26.9% | away | 28.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 8.9% | away_+2.5 | 91.1% | home_-1.5 | 22.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 77.5% | home_-0.5 | 44.7% | away_+0.5 | 55.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.6% | away_-0.5 | 28.4% | home_+1.5 | 88.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 11.6% | home_+2.5 | 96.4% | away_-2.5 | 3.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.7% | exact_1 | 17.6% | exact_2 | 25.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.9% | exact_4 | 14.5% | exact_5 | 7.6% |
| exact_6 | 3.4% | exact_7plus | 1.9% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 38.6% | draw | 43.4% | away | 18.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 66.4% | under_0.5 | 33.6% | over_1.5 | 29.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.3% | over_2.5 | 9.8% | under_2.5 | 90.2% |
btts
| yes | 16.2% | no | 83.8% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 33.6% | exact_1 | 36.7% | exact_2 | 20.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.3% | exact_4plus | 2.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 34.3% | draw | 36.5% | away | 29.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.0% | under_0.5 | 22.0% | over_1.5 | 44.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.3% | over_2.5 | 19.5% | under_2.5 | 80.5% |
btts
| yes | 28.2% | no | 71.9% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 29.8% | H/D | 6.2% | H/A | 2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 14.9% | D/D | 15.8% | D/A | 12.7% |
| A/H | 1.7% | A/D | 3.7% | A/A | 12.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 69.9% | under_7.5 | 30.1% | over_8.5 | 57.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 42.1% | over_9.5 | 45.7% | under_9.5 | 54.3% |
| over_10.5 | 34.2% | under_10.5 | 65.8% | over_11.5 | 24.4% |
| under_11.5 | 75.6% | over_12.5 | 16.6% | under_12.5 | 83.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 70.2% | under_3.5 | 29.8% | over_4.5 | 54.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 45.6% | over_5.5 | 39.2% | under_5.5 | 60.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.6% | under_3.5 | 40.4% | over_4.5 | 42.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 57.5% | over_5.5 | 28.0% | under_5.5 | 72.1% |
most
| home | 52.3% | draw | 10.9% | away | 36.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.2% | away_+3.5 | 77.8% | home_-1.5 | 41.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 58.7% | home_-0.5 | 52.3% | away_+0.5 | 47.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.2% | away_-0.5 | 36.8% | home_+1.5 | 73.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 27.0% | home_+3.5 | 87.8% | away_-3.5 | 12.2% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 64.9% | under_22.5 | 35.1% | over_24.5 | 52.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 47.1% | over_26.5 | 41.0% | under_26.5 | 59.0% |
| over_28.5 | 30.1% | under_28.5 | 69.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 73.5% | under_10.5 | 26.6% | over_12.5 | 57.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 42.2% | over_14.5 | 41.9% | under_14.5 | 58.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 55.9% | under_10.5 | 44.1% | over_12.5 | 38.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 61.7% | over_14.5 | 23.8% | under_14.5 | 76.2% |
most
| home | 60.6% | draw | 5.8% | away | 33.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 36.4% | away_+4.5 | 63.6% | home_-2.5 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 51.6% | home_-0.5 | 60.6% | away_+0.5 | 39.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.4% | away_-0.5 | 33.6% | home_+2.5 | 76.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 23.3% | home_+4.5 | 85.0% | away_-4.5 | 15.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 75.9% | under_6.5 | 24.1% | over_7.5 | 64.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 35.4% | over_8.5 | 52.5% | under_8.5 | 47.5% |
| over_9.5 | 40.7% | under_9.5 | 59.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 69.5% | under_3.5 | 30.5% | over_4.5 | 53.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.9% | over_5.5 | 37.6% | under_5.5 | 62.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 54.9% | under_3.5 | 45.1% | over_4.5 | 37.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 62.8% | over_5.5 | 23.0% | under_5.5 | 77.0% |
most
| home | 55.0% | draw | 11.9% | away | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 31.2% | away_+2.5 | 68.8% | home_-0.5 | 55.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 45.0% | home_+0.5 | 67.0% | away_-0.5 | 33.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.5% | away_-2.5 | 14.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 85.9% | under_2.5 | 14.1% | over_3.5 | 70.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 29.2% | over_4.5 | 52.7% | under_4.5 | 47.3% |
| over_5.5 | 35.2% | under_5.5 | 64.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 68.6% | under_1.5 | 31.4% | over_2.5 | 42.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 57.7% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 70.1% | under_1.5 | 29.9% | over_2.5 | 44.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 55.8% |
most
| home | 39.4% | draw | 18.7% | away | 41.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 23.0% | away_+1.5 | 77.0% | home_-0.5 | 39.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.6% | home_+0.5 | 58.1% | away_-0.5 | 41.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 75.0% | away_-1.5 | 25.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 89.7% | under_20.5 | 10.3% | over_22.5 | 81.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 19.1% | over_24.5 | 69.1% | under_24.5 | 30.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 86.3% | under_9.5 | 13.7% | over_11.5 | 70.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 29.4% | over_13.5 | 50.9% | under_13.5 | 49.1% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 85.6% | under_9.5 | 14.4% | over_11.5 | 69.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 30.6% | over_13.5 | 49.5% | under_13.5 | 50.5% |
most
| home | 47.4% | draw | 7.2% | away | 45.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 27.3% | away_+3.5 | 72.8% | home_-0.5 | 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 52.6% | home_+2.5 | 68.3% | away_-2.5 | 31.7% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 14.4% | no | 85.6% |
|---|
home
| yes | 8.0% | no | 92.1% |
|---|
away
| yes | 7.0% | no | 93.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Eyupspor predictions · Gaziantep predictions · Süper Lig
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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