Serie A
Parma vs 
Cagliari Cards
Result
Settled, final score 0-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 46.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 67.8% for over 2.5 to 14.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.6%. Between the two sides, Cagliari are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.7%, with a level count at 21.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 67.8% | 32.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 28.0% | 72.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 14.9% | 85.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
43.9%
19.3%
59.4%
32.9%
Card handicap
| Parma line | Parma | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.5% | 86.5% |
| -0.5 | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| +0.5 | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| +1.5 | 70.9% | 29.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 77.8% | 22.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 66.0% | 34.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 53.0% | 47.0% |
This season (2025/26)
1.8Parma cards per game10.9Parma fouls per game2.2Cagliari cards per game13.8Cagliari fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Parma vs Cagliari. It tips Cagliari for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
46.6%Over 3.5 cards20.5%Any red card43.9%Parma over 1.5 cards59.4%Cagliari over 1.5 cards66.0%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Parma over 1.5 cards sits at 43.9% and Cagliari at 59.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 20.5% (Parma 10.7%, Cagliari 11.0%). This season Parma have averaged 1.8 cards a game and Cagliari 2.2.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Parma vs Cagliari?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 46.6% for Parma vs Cagliari.
Will there be a red card in Parma vs Cagliari?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 20.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Parma vs Cagliari?
Before kickoff, the model rated Cagliari to pick up more cards at 49.7%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.