Lens vs Auxerre prediction & probabilities (2026-08-22)

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Lens vs Auxerre: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 22 Aug 2026

Ligue 1
Lens

DDWLW

Full time5-2Sat, 22 Aug 202616:15UK19°C · Cloudy
Auxerre

DLWWW

Model’s top convictions

84%

Lens or draw

77%

Over 1.5 goals

59%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time2 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Lens 5-2 Auxerre
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Both teams to score
3 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Lens at 62.7%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 53.0% and it landed (7 goals). We called Yes at 51.4% and it landed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
LensWin probability
62.7%
Top 3 convictions

Lens or draw83.9%High probabilityPays @ 1.19
Over 1.5 goals77.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.29
Over 8.5 corners59.1%Good chancePays @ 1.69

Model read

▾

Lens go into this Ligue 1 meeting with Auxerre on 22 August 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 63%. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 62%. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 53% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 51%. 3) The recent series reads 3 wins for Lens, 1 draws and 1 for Auxerre over 5 games, 3.2 goals on average. For shots markets, Odsonne Edouard is the obvious watch at 1.4 on target per 90 in recent data. The run in: Lens arrive W3 D2 L1, Auxerre W3 D2 L1. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.007 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners38.0%@ 2.63
Draw or Auxerre37.3%@ 2.68
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals53.0%@ 1.89
Both teams to score51.4%@ 1.95
Over 9.5 corners48.3%@ 2.07
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.0%@ 9.07
1-0 correct score10.9%@ 9.17
2-0 correct score10.7%@ 9.31

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Lens

62.7%+0.5%

Draw

21.2%+0.7%

Auxerre

16.1%-1.2%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.007 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.577.4%

Strong chance

Over 2.553.0%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes51.4%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.1%

Good chance

Over 9.548.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.0%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.0%

Low chance

Most cornersLens61.4%Auxerre28.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.565.0%

Strong chance

Over 24.552.5%

Good chance

Over 26.540.1%

Toss-up

Over 28.528.8%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.577.4%2.553.0%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.577.4%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

LensDDWLW
AuxerreDLWWW

Last 5 meetings: Lens 3 · 1 draws · Auxerre 1 · 3.2 goals/game.

2026-01-17Lens 1-0 Auxerre
2025-10-04Auxerre 1-2 Lens
2025-04-27Lens 0-4 Auxerre
2024-12-14Auxerre 2-2 Lens
2023-06-03Auxerre 1-3 Lens

Season stats

Season 2025/26, real results only

LensAuxerre
League position#2 of 18#15 of 18
Record W-D-L22-4-88-10-16
Current streakW1W3
Points per game2.061.00
Record, home vs away14-0-32-6-9
PPG, home vs away2.470.71
Goals scored per game1.941.00
Goals conceded per game1.031.29
Scored, home vs away2.060.94
Conceded, home vs away0.761.59
1st half goals per game0.760.50
2nd half goals per game1.180.50
Corners won per game6.24.8
Cards per game2.12.2
Fouls per game12.713.7
Red cards this season57
Shots per game16.510.7
Shots on target per game5.63.5
xG for per game2.191.19
xG against per game1.261.47
Over 2.5 rate

64.7%44.1%

BTTS rate

50.0%41.2%

Clean sheets

35.3%26.5%

Rates this season:LensAuxerre

League averages this season: 2.82 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 53% · BTTS in 51%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Odsonne EdouardLens · key player
To score33.7%

@ 2.97

1+ on target64.5%

@ 1.55

2+ shots61.2%

@ 1.63

Shots/90 2.87SoT/90 1.44Goals/90 0.57
Theo BairAuxerre · key player
To score6.4%

@ 15.63

1+ on target35.1%

@ 2.85

2+ shots20.3%

@ 4.93

Shots/90 2.66SoT/90 1.38Goals/90 0.21
Goduine KoyalipouLens · in form
To score23.6%

@ 4.24

1+ on target60.8%

@ 1.64

2+ shots76.9%

@ 1.30

Shots/90 4.16SoT/90 1.39Goals/90 0.4
Hamed Junior TraoreAuxerre · in form
To score32.1%

@ 3.12

1+ on target64.7%

@ 1.55

2+ shots74.2%

@ 1.35

Shots/90 2.88SoT/90 1.13Goals/90 0.42
Rayan FofanaLens · in form
To score16.8%

@ 5.95

1+ on target35.9%

@ 2.79

2+ shots38.5%

@ 2.60

Shots/90 4.14SoT/90 1.38Goals/90 0.57
Ado OnaiwuAuxerre · in form
To score12.5%

@ 8.00

1+ on target28.4%

@ 3.52

2+ shots12.1%

@ 8.26

Shots/90 2.01SoT/90 1.12Goals/90 0.45

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Lens win1.551.60
Draw4.504.71
Auxerre win5.256.20
Over 2.5 goals1.671.89
Under 2.5 goals2.202.13

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Lens win1.68
Draw4.32
Auxerre win5.74
Both teams to score1.95

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.29
Over 2.5 goals1.89
Over 3.5 goals3.24
Lens most1.68
Auxerre most5.74

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.37
Over 8.5 corners1.63
Over 9.5 corners2.03
Over 10.5 corners2.65
Lens most1.63
Auxerre most3.52

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.29
Over 3.5 cards1.72
Over 4.5 cards2.59
Over 5.5 cards4.41
Lens most2.57
Auxerre most2.46

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.31
Over 7.5 SoT1.55
Over 8.5 SoT1.91
Over 9.5 SoT2.48
Lens most1.47
Auxerre most4.69

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.54
Over 24.5 shots1.90
Over 26.5 shots2.50
Over 28.5 shots3.47
Lens most1.43
Auxerre most4.04

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.26
Over 22.5 fouls1.49
Over 24.5 fouls1.87
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 76.1% Over 7.5 64.6% Over 8.5 52.3% Over 9.5 40.3%
Most: Lens 68.2% Most: Auxerre 21.3%
Lens Over 4.2 61.7% Auxerre Over 4.2 26.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 77.3% Over 3.5 58.1% Over 4.5 38.6%
Most: Lens 38.9% Most: Auxerre 40.6%
Lens Over 1.8 59.8% Auxerre Over 1.8 61.0%

Lens: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Odsonne Edouard 2.87 1.44 0.57 64.5% 61.2% 33.7%
Goduine Koyalipou 4.16 1.39 0.4 60.8% 76.9% 23.6%
Rayan Fofana 4.14 1.38 0.57 35.9% 38.5% 16.8%
Abdallah Sima 3.9 1.17 0.26 34.9% 41.8% 9.1%
M'Bala Nzola 2.88 1.1 0.37 57.5% 65.5% 25.0%

Auxerre: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Theo Bair 2.66 1.38 0.21 35.1% 20.3% 6.4%
Hamed Junior Traore 2.88 1.13 0.42 64.7% 74.2% 32.1%
Ado Onaiwu 2.01 1.12 0.45 28.4% 12.1% 12.5%
Lassine Sinayoko 2.7 1 0.3 57.6% 67.4% 22.7%
Gaetan Perrin 1.96 0.88 0.34 54.6% 52.4% 26.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Lens clean sheet 39.4%
Auxerre clean sheet 15.3%
Lens win to nil 32.8%
Auxerre win to nil 8.7%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 59.4% draw 23.2% away 17.4%
double_chance
1X 82.6% 12 76.9% X2 40.6%
dnb
home 77.3% away 22.7%
btts
yes 51.4% no 48.6%
clean_sheet
home 39.9% away 15.3%
win_to_nil
home 33.3% away 8.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1 24.1% home_by_2 18.4% home_by_3plus 16.9%
away_by_1 11.5% away_by_2 4.4% away_by_3plus 1.5%
correct_score
0-0 6.6% 0-1 5.1% 0-2 2.6%
0-3 0.8% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 10.9% 1-1 11.0% 1-2 4.8%
1-3 1.5% 1-4 0.3% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 10.7% 2-1 9.9% 2-2 4.5%
2-3 1.4% 2-4 0.3% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 6.7% 3-1 6.2% 3-2 2.8%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 3.2% 4-1 2.9% 4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 1.2% 5-1 1.1% 5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.4% under_0.5 6.6% over_1.5 77.4%
under_1.5 22.6% over_2.5 53.0% under_2.5 47.0%
over_3.5 30.8% under_3.5 69.2% over_4.5 15.3%
under_4.5 84.7% over_5.5 6.6% under_5.5 93.5%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 84.7% under_0.5 15.3% over_1.5 56.0%
under_1.5 44.0% over_2.5 29.2% under_2.5 70.9%
team_away
over_0.5 60.1% under_0.5 39.9% over_1.5 23.4%
under_1.5 76.6% over_2.5 6.6% under_2.5 93.4%
most
home 59.4% draw 23.2% away 17.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 16.9% away_+2.5 83.1% home_-1.5 35.4%
away_+1.5 64.6% home_-0.5 59.4% away_+0.5 40.6%
home_+0.5 82.6% away_-0.5 17.4% home_+1.5 94.1%
away_-1.5 5.9% home_+2.5 98.5% away_-2.5 1.5%
total_exact
exact_0 6.6% exact_1 16.0% exact_2 24.3%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 15.6% exact_5 8.7%
exact_6 4.1% exact_7plus 2.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.0% draw 41.8% away 26.2%
total
over_0.5 70.0% under_0.5 30.0% over_1.5 33.9%
under_1.5 66.1% over_2.5 12.1% under_2.5 87.9%
btts
yes 20.3% no 79.7%
total_exact
exact_0 30.0% exact_1 36.1% exact_2 21.7%
exact_3 8.7% exact_4plus 3.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 54.8% draw 32.7% away 12.4%
total
over_0.5 77.8% under_0.5 22.2% over_1.5 44.4%
under_1.5 55.6% over_2.5 19.3% under_2.5 80.7%
btts
yes 21.4% no 78.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 29.0% H/D 2.5% H/A 0.5%
D/H 22.9% D/D 13.7% D/A 5.2%
A/H 5.2% A/D 7.0% A/A 14.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 73.0% under_7.5 27.0% over_8.5 61.5%
under_8.5 38.6% over_9.5 49.3% under_9.5 50.7%
over_10.5 37.7% under_10.5 62.3% over_11.5 27.5%
under_11.5 72.5% over_12.5 19.1% under_12.5 80.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.3% under_3.5 22.7% over_4.5 63.0%
under_4.5 37.0% over_5.5 48.1% under_5.5 51.9%
team_away
over_3.5 55.0% under_3.5 45.0% over_4.5 37.6%
under_4.5 62.4% over_5.5 23.5% under_5.5 76.5%
most
home 61.5% draw 10.1% away 28.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 29.8% away_+3.5 70.2% home_-1.5 50.6%
away_+1.5 49.4% home_-0.5 61.5% away_+0.5 38.5%
home_+0.5 71.6% away_-0.5 28.4% home_+1.5 80.2%
away_-1.5 19.8% home_+3.5 91.9% away_-3.5 8.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 65.0% under_22.5 35.0% over_24.5 52.5%
under_24.5 47.5% over_26.5 40.1% under_26.5 59.9%
over_28.5 28.8% under_28.5 71.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 78.8% under_10.5 21.3% over_12.5 63.9%
under_12.5 36.1% over_14.5 47.6% under_14.5 52.4%
team_away
over_10.5 48.6% under_10.5 51.4% over_12.5 30.7%
under_12.5 69.3% over_14.5 17.3% under_14.5 82.7%
most
home 69.9% draw 5.4% away 24.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 45.2% away_+4.5 54.8% home_-2.5 57.9%
away_+2.5 42.1% home_-0.5 69.9% away_+0.5 30.1%
home_+0.5 75.2% away_-0.5 24.8% home_+2.5 84.2%
away_-2.5 15.8% home_+4.5 90.7% away_-4.5 9.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 76.1% under_6.5 23.9% over_7.5 64.6%
under_7.5 35.4% over_8.5 52.3% under_8.5 47.7%
over_9.5 40.3% under_9.5 59.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.7% under_3.5 23.3% over_4.5 61.7%
under_4.5 38.3% over_5.5 46.1% under_5.5 53.9%
team_away
over_3.5 44.1% under_3.5 55.9% over_4.5 26.8%
under_4.5 73.2% over_5.5 14.7% under_5.5 85.3%
most
home 68.2% draw 10.5% away 21.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 43.6% away_+2.5 56.4% home_-0.5 68.2%
away_+0.5 31.8% home_+0.5 78.7% away_-0.5 21.3%
home_+2.5 92.5% away_-2.5 7.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 77.3% under_2.5 22.7% over_3.5 58.1%
under_3.5 41.9% over_4.5 38.6% under_4.5 61.4%
over_5.5 22.7% under_5.5 77.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 59.8% under_1.5 40.2% over_2.5 32.8%
under_2.5 67.2%
team_away
over_1.5 61.0% under_1.5 39.0% over_2.5 34.0%
under_2.5 66.0%
most
home 38.9% draw 20.5% away 40.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 21.3% away_+1.5 78.6% home_-0.5 38.9%
away_+0.5 61.1% home_+0.5 59.4% away_-0.5 40.6%
home_+1.5 77.3% away_-1.5 22.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 79.2% under_20.5 20.8% over_22.5 67.2%
under_22.5 32.8% over_24.5 53.5% under_24.5 46.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 78.0% under_9.5 22.0% over_11.5 59.7%
under_11.5 40.3% over_13.5 40.3% under_13.5 59.7%
team_away
over_9.5 76.3% under_9.5 23.7% over_11.5 57.5%
under_11.5 42.5% over_13.5 38.1% under_13.5 61.9%
most
home 48.1% draw 7.0% away 44.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.2% away_+3.5 71.8% home_-0.5 48.1%
away_+0.5 51.9% home_+2.5 68.5% away_-2.5 31.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 27.0% no 73.0%
home
yes 14.3% no 85.7%
away
yes 14.8% no 85.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Lens predictions · Auxerre predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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