Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
76.1% |
Over 7.5 |
64.6% |
Over 8.5 |
52.3% |
Over 9.5 |
40.3% |
| Most: Lens |
68.2% |
Most: Auxerre |
21.3% |
| Lens Over 4.2 |
61.7% |
Auxerre Over 4.2 |
26.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
77.3% |
Over 3.5 |
58.1% |
Over 4.5 |
38.6% |
| Most: Lens |
38.9% |
Most: Auxerre |
40.6% |
| Lens Over 1.8 |
59.8% |
Auxerre Over 1.8 |
61.0% |
Lens: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Odsonne Edouard |
2.87 |
1.44 |
0.57 |
64.5% |
61.2% |
33.7% |
| Goduine Koyalipou |
4.16 |
1.39 |
0.4 |
60.8% |
76.9% |
23.6% |
| Rayan Fofana |
4.14 |
1.38 |
0.57 |
35.9% |
38.5% |
16.8% |
| Abdallah Sima |
3.9 |
1.17 |
0.26 |
34.9% |
41.8% |
9.1% |
| M'Bala Nzola |
2.88 |
1.1 |
0.37 |
57.5% |
65.5% |
25.0% |
Auxerre: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Ado Onaiwu |
2.32 |
1.41 |
0.4 |
36.4% |
17.1% |
12.0% |
| Theo Bair |
2.55 |
1.28 |
0.2 |
34.3% |
20.5% |
6.4% |
| Hamed Junior Traore |
2.88 |
1.13 |
0.42 |
64.7% |
74.2% |
32.1% |
| Lassine Sinayoko |
2.71 |
0.99 |
0.3 |
57.4% |
67.7% |
22.8% |
| Ibrahim Osman |
2.57 |
0.86 |
0 |
35.0% |
36.9% |
0.0% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
59.4% |
draw |
23.2% |
away |
17.4% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
82.6% |
12 |
76.9% |
X2 |
40.6% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
24.1% |
home_by_2 |
18.4% |
home_by_3plus |
16.9% |
| away_by_1 |
11.5% |
away_by_2 |
4.4% |
away_by_3plus |
1.5% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
6.6% |
0-1 |
5.1% |
0-2 |
2.6% |
| 0-3 |
0.8% |
0-4 |
0.2% |
0-5 |
0.0% |
| 1-0 |
10.9% |
1-1 |
11.0% |
1-2 |
4.8% |
| 1-3 |
1.5% |
1-4 |
0.3% |
1-5 |
0.1% |
| 2-0 |
10.7% |
2-1 |
9.9% |
2-2 |
4.5% |
| 2-3 |
1.4% |
2-4 |
0.3% |
2-5 |
0.1% |
| 3-0 |
6.7% |
3-1 |
6.2% |
3-2 |
2.8% |
| 3-3 |
0.9% |
3-4 |
0.2% |
3-5 |
0.0% |
| 4-0 |
3.2% |
4-1 |
2.9% |
4-2 |
1.3% |
| 4-3 |
0.4% |
4-4 |
0.1% |
4-5 |
0.0% |
| 5-0 |
1.2% |
5-1 |
1.1% |
5-2 |
0.5% |
| 5-3 |
0.2% |
5-4 |
0.0% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
1.3% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
11.0% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
93.4% |
under_0.5 |
6.6% |
over_1.5 |
77.4% |
| under_1.5 |
22.6% |
over_2.5 |
53.0% |
under_2.5 |
47.0% |
| over_3.5 |
30.8% |
under_3.5 |
69.2% |
over_4.5 |
15.3% |
| under_4.5 |
84.7% |
over_5.5 |
6.6% |
under_5.5 |
93.5% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
84.7% |
under_0.5 |
15.3% |
over_1.5 |
56.0% |
| under_1.5 |
44.0% |
over_2.5 |
29.2% |
under_2.5 |
70.9% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
60.1% |
under_0.5 |
39.9% |
over_1.5 |
23.4% |
| under_1.5 |
76.6% |
over_2.5 |
6.6% |
under_2.5 |
93.4% |
|
most
| home |
59.4% |
draw |
23.2% |
away |
17.4% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
16.9% |
away_+2.5 |
83.1% |
home_-1.5 |
35.4% |
| away_+1.5 |
64.6% |
home_-0.5 |
59.4% |
away_+0.5 |
40.6% |
| home_+0.5 |
82.6% |
away_-0.5 |
17.4% |
home_+1.5 |
94.1% |
| away_-1.5 |
5.9% |
home_+2.5 |
98.5% |
away_-2.5 |
1.5% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
6.6% |
exact_1 |
16.0% |
exact_2 |
24.3% |
| exact_3 |
22.2% |
exact_4 |
15.6% |
exact_5 |
8.7% |
| exact_6 |
4.1% |
exact_7plus |
2.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
32.0% |
draw |
41.8% |
away |
26.2% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
70.0% |
under_0.5 |
30.0% |
over_1.5 |
33.9% |
| under_1.5 |
66.1% |
over_2.5 |
12.1% |
under_2.5 |
87.9% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
30.0% |
exact_1 |
36.1% |
exact_2 |
21.7% |
| exact_3 |
8.7% |
exact_4plus |
3.4% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
54.8% |
draw |
32.7% |
away |
12.4% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
77.8% |
under_0.5 |
22.2% |
over_1.5 |
44.4% |
| under_1.5 |
55.6% |
over_2.5 |
19.3% |
under_2.5 |
80.7% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
29.0% |
H/D |
2.5% |
H/A |
0.5% |
| D/H |
22.9% |
D/D |
13.7% |
D/A |
5.2% |
| A/H |
5.2% |
A/D |
7.0% |
A/A |
14.0% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
73.0% |
under_7.5 |
27.0% |
over_8.5 |
61.5% |
| under_8.5 |
38.6% |
over_9.5 |
49.3% |
under_9.5 |
50.7% |
| over_10.5 |
37.7% |
under_10.5 |
62.3% |
over_11.5 |
27.5% |
| under_11.5 |
72.5% |
over_12.5 |
19.1% |
under_12.5 |
80.9% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
77.3% |
under_3.5 |
22.7% |
over_4.5 |
63.0% |
| under_4.5 |
37.0% |
over_5.5 |
48.1% |
under_5.5 |
51.9% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
55.0% |
under_3.5 |
45.0% |
over_4.5 |
37.6% |
| under_4.5 |
62.4% |
over_5.5 |
23.5% |
under_5.5 |
76.5% |
|
most
| home |
61.5% |
draw |
10.1% |
away |
28.4% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
29.8% |
away_+3.5 |
70.2% |
home_-1.5 |
50.6% |
| away_+1.5 |
49.4% |
home_-0.5 |
61.5% |
away_+0.5 |
38.5% |
| home_+0.5 |
71.6% |
away_-0.5 |
28.4% |
home_+1.5 |
80.2% |
| away_-1.5 |
19.8% |
home_+3.5 |
91.9% |
away_-3.5 |
8.1% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
65.0% |
under_22.5 |
35.0% |
over_24.5 |
52.5% |
| under_24.5 |
47.5% |
over_26.5 |
40.1% |
under_26.5 |
59.9% |
| over_28.5 |
28.8% |
under_28.5 |
71.2% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
78.8% |
under_10.5 |
21.3% |
over_12.5 |
63.9% |
| under_12.5 |
36.1% |
over_14.5 |
47.6% |
under_14.5 |
52.4% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
48.6% |
under_10.5 |
51.4% |
over_12.5 |
30.7% |
| under_12.5 |
69.3% |
over_14.5 |
17.3% |
under_14.5 |
82.7% |
|
most
| home |
69.9% |
draw |
5.4% |
away |
24.8% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
45.2% |
away_+4.5 |
54.8% |
home_-2.5 |
57.9% |
| away_+2.5 |
42.1% |
home_-0.5 |
69.9% |
away_+0.5 |
30.1% |
| home_+0.5 |
75.2% |
away_-0.5 |
24.8% |
home_+2.5 |
84.2% |
| away_-2.5 |
15.8% |
home_+4.5 |
90.7% |
away_-4.5 |
9.3% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
76.1% |
under_6.5 |
23.9% |
over_7.5 |
64.6% |
| under_7.5 |
35.4% |
over_8.5 |
52.3% |
under_8.5 |
47.7% |
| over_9.5 |
40.3% |
under_9.5 |
59.7% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
76.7% |
under_3.5 |
23.3% |
over_4.5 |
61.7% |
| under_4.5 |
38.3% |
over_5.5 |
46.1% |
under_5.5 |
53.9% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
44.1% |
under_3.5 |
55.9% |
over_4.5 |
26.8% |
| under_4.5 |
73.2% |
over_5.5 |
14.7% |
under_5.5 |
85.3% |
|
most
| home |
68.2% |
draw |
10.5% |
away |
21.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
43.6% |
away_+2.5 |
56.4% |
home_-0.5 |
68.2% |
| away_+0.5 |
31.8% |
home_+0.5 |
78.7% |
away_-0.5 |
21.3% |
| home_+2.5 |
92.5% |
away_-2.5 |
7.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
77.3% |
under_2.5 |
22.7% |
over_3.5 |
58.1% |
| under_3.5 |
41.9% |
over_4.5 |
38.6% |
under_4.5 |
61.4% |
| over_5.5 |
22.7% |
under_5.5 |
77.3% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
59.8% |
under_1.5 |
40.2% |
over_2.5 |
32.8% |
| under_2.5 |
67.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
61.0% |
under_1.5 |
39.0% |
over_2.5 |
34.0% |
| under_2.5 |
66.0% |
most
| home |
38.9% |
draw |
20.5% |
away |
40.6% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
21.3% |
away_+1.5 |
78.6% |
home_-0.5 |
38.9% |
| away_+0.5 |
61.1% |
home_+0.5 |
59.4% |
away_-0.5 |
40.6% |
| home_+1.5 |
77.3% |
away_-1.5 |
22.7% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
79.2% |
under_20.5 |
20.8% |
over_22.5 |
67.2% |
| under_22.5 |
32.8% |
over_24.5 |
53.5% |
under_24.5 |
46.5% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
78.0% |
under_9.5 |
22.0% |
over_11.5 |
59.7% |
| under_11.5 |
40.3% |
over_13.5 |
40.3% |
under_13.5 |
59.7% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
76.3% |
under_9.5 |
23.7% |
over_11.5 |
57.5% |
| under_11.5 |
42.5% |
over_13.5 |
38.1% |
under_13.5 |
61.9% |
|
most
| home |
48.1% |
draw |
7.0% |
away |
44.9% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
28.2% |
away_+3.5 |
71.8% |
home_-0.5 |
48.1% |
| away_+0.5 |
51.9% |
home_+2.5 |
68.5% |
away_-2.5 |
31.5% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Ligue 1
Lens
Auxerre