Pro League
Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs 
Cercle Brugge Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 59.4%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 70.6% for over 22.5 to 36.4% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.7%. On the shot count, Oud-Heverlee Leuven are the model’s pick to have more shots at 58.5%, with a level count at 5.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 70.6% | 29.4% |
| 24.5 shots | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| 26.5 shots | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| 28.5 shots | 36.4% | 63.6% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
75.8%
60.8%
45.2%
61.8%
44.6%
29.4%
Shot handicap
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven line | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 35.2% | 64.8% |
| -2.5 | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| -0.5 | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| +0.5 | 64.2% | 35.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 75.7% | 24.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 40.7% | 59.3% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
14.4Oud-Heverlee Leuven shots per game17.0Oud-Heverlee Leuven shots faced per game16.4Cercle Brugge shots per game14.2Cercle Brugge shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Oud-Heverlee Leuven.
In-depth analysis
59.4%Over 24.5 shots60.8%Oud-Heverlee Leuven over 12.5 shots44.6%Cercle Brugge over 12.5 shots64.5%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Oud-Heverlee Leuven over 12.5 shots sits at 60.8% and Cercle Brugge at 44.6%. This season Oud-Heverlee Leuven have averaged 14.4 shots a game and Cercle Brugge 16.4.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Cercle Brugge?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 59.4% for Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Cercle Brugge.
Which team will have more shots in Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Cercle Brugge?
The model rates Oud-Heverlee Leuven to take more shots at 58.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Pro League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.