League TwoOldham vs Port Vale Cards
Result
Settled, final score 2-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 50.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 71.6% for over 2.5 to 17.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.7%. Head to head on cards, Port Vale are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.6%, with a level count at 21.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 71.6% | 28.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 17.1% | 82.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
50.5%
24.1%
59.7%
32.6%
Card handicap
| Oldham line | Oldham | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.4% | 83.6% |
| -0.5 | 33.1% | 67.0% |
| +0.5 | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| +1.5 | 74.2% | 25.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 72.5% | 27.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 43.0% | 57.0% |
Recent referees
| Team | Referee | Games | Cards/g | Team cards/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oldham | D Rock | 3 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| Oldham | J Oldham | 2 | 4.5 | 2.0 |
| Oldham | O Mackey | 2 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| Port Vale | D Bourne | 3 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| Port Vale | A Bannister | 2 | 5.0 | 3.5 |
| Port Vale | A Herczeg | 2 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. We never claim who officiates this match: the appointment is not known before kickoff.
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Oldham vs Port Vale. The model leans toward Port Vale for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
50.7%Over 3.5 cards17.1%Any red card50.5%Oldham over 1.5 cards59.7%Port Vale over 1.5 cards58.1%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Oldham over 1.5 cards sits at 50.5% and Port Vale at 59.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.1% (Oldham 7.8%, Port Vale 10.1%). Oldham’s most frequent referee this season, D Rock, has averaged 4.7 cards a game across 3 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Oldham vs Port Vale?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 50.7% for Oldham vs Port Vale.
Will there be a red card in Oldham vs Port Vale?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 17.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Oldham vs Port Vale?
Before kickoff, the model rated Port Vale to pick up more cards at 45.6%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More League Two, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.