League TwoOldham vs Port Vale Correct Score
Result
Final score 2-0. The model gave that exact scoreline 11.8%.
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 12.5% at 1-0, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. Recent output points the same way: Oldham have averaged 1.6 scored and 1.8 conceded, Port Vale 2.2 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 49.2% for over 2.5 and 74.6% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.6 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.5% |
| 2-0 | 11.8% |
| 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 0-0 | 7.7% |
| 3-0 | 7.2% |
| 3-1 | 5.9% |
| 0-1 | 5.3% |
Score probability grid
| Oldham \ Port Vale | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 12% | 11% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 2 | 12% | 10% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 3 | 7% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Oldham goals, columns = Port Vale. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 12.5%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
47.4%Both Teams to Score49.2%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 49.2% for three or more goals and 74.6% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Oldham favoured at 60.6%, the scoreline often hinges on whether the favourite is made to chase.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Oldham 1 · 2 draws · Port Vale 2 · 2.6 goals/game.
FAQ
What was the score in Oldham vs Port Vale?
Oldham vs Port Vale finished 2-0. The model's most likely scoreline was 1-0 at 12.5%; it gave the actual 2-0 a 11.8% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
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Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.