Grimsby vs Bristol Rvs prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Grimsby vs Bristol Rvs: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

League Two
Grimsby

WDDDD

Sat, 12 Sep 202612:30UK
Bristol Rvs

LWWWW

Model’s top convictions

76%

Over 1.5 goals

72%

Grimsby or draw

62%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedConservative EV -0.026 <= 0.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
GrimsbyWin probability
45.4%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals76.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.31
Grimsby or draw71.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.39
Over 8.5 corners61.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.62

Model read

▾

Our engine prices Grimsby at 45% for 12 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Grimsby than the market (41%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 52% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 55%. 3) Head to head, the last 2 meetings gave 0 wins for Grimsby, 0 draws and 2 for Bristol Rvs, averaging 2.5 goals a game. The run in: Grimsby arrive W1 D5 L0, Bristol Rvs W4 D1 L1. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.026 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners40.8%@ 2.45
Over 11.5 corners31.5%@ 3.17
Medium risk

Both teams to score55.3%@ 1.81
Draw or Bristol Rvs54.6%@ 1.83
Over 2.5 goals51.5%@ 1.94
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.5%@ 8.01
1-0 correct score9.5%@ 10.53
2-1 correct score9.2%@ 10.83

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Grimsby

45.4%+4.2%

Draw

26.3%-0.2%

Bristol Rvs

28.3%-4.1%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.026 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.576.3%

Strong chance

Over 2.551.5%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes55.3%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.561.8%

Strong chance

Over 9.551.1%

Good chance

Over 10.540.8%

Toss-up

Over 11.531.5%

Toss-up

Most cornersGrimsby58.4%Bristol Rvs31.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.559.0%

Good chance

Over 24.546.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.534.2%

Toss-up

Over 28.523.8%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Grimsby15.5 taken10.5 faced
Bristol Rvs19.0 taken11.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.576.3%2.551.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.576.3%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Conservative EV -0.026 <= 0.

Form & head-to-head

GrimsbyWDDDD
Bristol RvsLWWWW

Last 2 meetings: Grimsby 0 · 0 draws · Bristol Rvs 2 · 2.5 goals/game.

2026-02-21Bristol Rvs 3-1 Grimsby
2025-08-30Grimsby 0-1 Bristol Rvs

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

GrimsbyBristol Rvs
League position#11 of 24#1 of 24
Record W-D-L1-4-04-0-1
Current streakD4W4
Points per game1.402.40
Record, home vs away1-1-01-0-1
Goals scored per game1.402.40
Goals conceded per game1.201.20
1st half goals per game0.801.20
2nd half goals per game0.601.20
Corners won per game7.06.8
Cards per game1.22.0
Fouls per game13.011.6
Red cards this season00
Shots per game16.020.4
Shots faced per game11.010.4
Shots on target per game4.46.0
Over 2.5 rate

60.0%40.0%

BTTS rate

60.0%40.0%

Clean sheets

40.0%60.0%

Rates this season:GrimsbyBristol Rvs

League averages this season: 2.67 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Grimsby win2.252.20
Draw3.403.80
Bristol Rvs win2.823.53
Over 2.5 goals1.731.94
Under 2.5 goals2.082.06

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Grimsby win2.21
Draw3.80
Bristol Rvs win3.53
Both teams to score1.81

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.31
Over 2.5 goals1.94
Over 3.5 goals3.40
Grimsby most2.21
Bristol Rvs most3.53

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.33
Over 8.5 corners1.56
Over 9.5 corners1.91
Over 10.5 corners2.45
Grimsby most1.71
Bristol Rvs most3.19

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.31
Over 3.5 cards1.75
Over 4.5 cards2.67
Over 5.5 cards4.60
Grimsby most4.02
Bristol Rvs most1.79

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.53
Over 7.5 SoT1.90
Over 8.5 SoT2.49
Over 9.5 SoT3.42
Grimsby most1.78
Bristol Rvs most3.19

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.70
Over 24.5 shots2.17
Over 26.5 shots2.93
Over 28.5 shots4.21
Grimsby most1.67
Bristol Rvs most2.94

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.43
Over 22.5 fouls1.81
Over 24.5 fouls2.50
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 58.9% Over 24.5 46.2% Over 26.5 34.1% Over 28.5 23.8%
Most: Grimsby 59.8% Most: Bristol Rvs 34.1%
Grimsby Over 13.2 44.1% Bristol Rvs Over 13.2 26.5%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 65.3% Over 7.5 52.5% Over 8.5 40.2% Over 9.5 29.2%
Most: Grimsby 56.2% Most: Bristol Rvs 31.3%
Grimsby Over 4.2 45.4% Bristol Rvs Over 4.2 27.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 76.4% Over 3.5 57.0% Over 4.5 37.5%
Most: Grimsby 24.9% Most: Bristol Rvs 56.0%
Grimsby Over 1.8 47.4% Bristol Rvs Over 1.8 69.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Grimsby clean sheet 30.6%
Bristol Rvs clean sheet 21.1%
Grimsby win to nil 23.5%
Bristol Rvs win to nil 14.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 45.4% draw 26.3% away 28.3%
double_chance
1X 71.7% 12 73.7% X2 54.7%
dnb
home 61.5% away 38.5%
btts
yes 55.3% no 44.7%
clean_sheet
home 30.7% away 21.1%
win_to_nil
home 23.6% away 14.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.1% home_by_2 13.9% home_by_3plus 9.4%
away_by_1 16.6% away_by_2 8.0% away_by_3plus 3.7%
correct_score
0-0 7.1% 0-1 7.1% 0-2 4.5%
0-3 1.8% 0-4 0.5% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 9.5% 1-1 12.5% 1-2 7.0%
1-3 2.8% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.8% 2-1 9.2% 2-2 5.5%
2-3 2.2% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 4.1% 3-1 4.8% 3-2 2.8%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.6% 4-1 1.9% 4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.5% 5-1 0.6% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.9% under_0.5 7.1% over_1.5 76.3%
under_1.5 23.7% over_2.5 51.5% under_2.5 48.5%
over_3.5 29.5% under_3.5 70.6% over_4.5 14.3%
under_4.5 85.7% over_5.5 6.0% under_5.5 94.0%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 78.9% under_0.5 21.1% over_1.5 46.1%
under_1.5 53.9% over_2.5 20.5% under_2.5 79.5%
team_away
over_0.5 69.3% under_0.5 30.7% over_1.5 33.1%
under_1.5 66.9% over_2.5 11.7% under_2.5 88.3%
most
home 45.4% draw 26.3% away 28.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 9.4% away_+2.5 90.6% home_-1.5 23.3%
away_+1.5 76.7% home_-0.5 45.4% away_+0.5 54.7%
home_+0.5 71.7% away_-0.5 28.3% home_+1.5 88.3%
away_-1.5 11.7% home_+2.5 96.3% away_-2.5 3.7%
total_exact
exact_0 7.1% exact_1 16.6% exact_2 24.8%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 15.1% exact_5 8.3%
exact_6 3.8% exact_7plus 2.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.5% draw 39.1% away 26.3%
total
over_0.5 73.9% under_0.5 26.1% over_1.5 38.8%
under_1.5 61.2% over_2.5 15.3% under_2.5 84.7%
btts
yes 23.7% no 76.3%
total_exact
exact_0 26.1% exact_1 35.1% exact_2 23.5%
exact_3 10.5% exact_4plus 4.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 37.9% draw 36.7% away 25.4%
total
over_0.5 77.3% under_0.5 22.7% over_1.5 43.7%
under_1.5 56.3% over_2.5 18.7% under_2.5 81.3%
btts
yes 26.9% no 73.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 27.9% H/D 4.9% H/A 1.7%
D/H 14.8% D/D 14.3% D/A 10.0%
A/H 2.7% A/D 5.4% A/A 18.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.9% under_7.5 25.1% over_8.5 64.0%
under_8.5 36.0% over_9.5 52.3% under_9.5 47.7%
over_10.5 40.9% under_10.5 59.1% over_11.5 30.6%
under_11.5 69.4% over_12.5 21.9% under_12.5 78.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.9% under_3.5 23.2% over_4.5 62.7%
under_4.5 37.3% over_5.5 47.9% under_5.5 52.1%
team_away
over_3.5 59.3% under_3.5 40.7% over_4.5 42.2%
under_4.5 57.8% over_5.5 27.7% under_5.5 72.3%
most
home 58.5% draw 10.2% away 31.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.7% away_+3.5 72.3% home_-1.5 47.7%
away_+1.5 52.3% home_-0.5 58.5% away_+0.5 41.5%
home_+0.5 68.7% away_-0.5 31.3% home_+1.5 77.6%
away_-1.5 22.4% home_+3.5 90.3% away_-3.5 9.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 59.0% under_22.5 41.1% over_24.5 46.2%
under_24.5 53.8% over_26.5 34.2% under_26.5 65.9%
over_28.5 23.8% under_28.5 76.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 69.7% under_10.5 30.3% over_12.5 52.6%
under_12.5 47.4% over_14.5 36.2% under_14.5 63.8%
team_away
over_10.5 52.3% under_10.5 47.7% over_12.5 34.2%
under_12.5 65.9% over_14.5 20.0% under_14.5 80.0%
most
home 59.8% draw 6.2% away 34.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.4% away_+4.5 65.6% home_-2.5 46.9%
away_+2.5 53.1% home_-0.5 59.8% away_+0.5 40.2%
home_+0.5 65.9% away_-0.5 34.1% home_+2.5 76.9%
away_-2.5 23.1% home_+4.5 85.6% away_-4.5 14.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 65.3% under_6.5 34.7% over_7.5 52.6%
under_7.5 47.4% over_8.5 40.2% under_8.5 59.8%
over_9.5 29.2% under_9.5 70.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 62.4% under_3.5 37.7% over_4.5 45.4%
under_4.5 54.6% over_5.5 30.5% under_5.5 69.5%
team_away
over_3.5 44.6% under_3.5 55.4% over_4.5 27.8%
under_4.5 72.2% over_5.5 15.8% under_5.5 84.2%
most
home 56.2% draw 12.5% away 31.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 31.0% away_+2.5 69.0% home_-0.5 56.2%
away_+0.5 43.8% home_+0.5 68.7% away_-0.5 31.3%
home_+2.5 87.4% away_-2.5 12.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 76.4% under_2.5 23.6% over_3.5 57.0%
under_3.5 43.0% over_4.5 37.5% under_4.5 62.6%
over_5.5 21.8% under_5.5 78.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 47.4% under_1.5 52.6% over_2.5 21.6%
under_2.5 78.5%
team_away
over_1.5 69.6% under_1.5 30.4% over_2.5 43.6%
under_2.5 56.4%
most
home 24.9% draw 19.2% away 56.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 11.5% away_+1.5 88.6% home_-0.5 24.9%
away_+0.5 75.1% home_+0.5 44.0% away_-0.5 56.0%
home_+1.5 64.4% away_-1.5 35.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 70.1% under_20.5 29.9% over_22.5 55.2%
under_22.5 44.8% over_24.5 40.0% under_24.5 60.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 54.4% under_9.5 45.6% over_11.5 31.9%
under_11.5 68.1% over_13.5 15.5% under_13.5 84.5%
team_away
over_9.5 83.3% under_9.5 16.7% over_11.5 66.0%
under_11.5 34.0% over_13.5 45.9% under_13.5 54.2%
most
home 23.6% draw 6.4% away 70.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 9.6% away_+3.5 90.4% home_-0.5 23.6%
away_+0.5 76.4% home_+2.5 44.7% away_-2.5 55.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 18.4% no 81.6%
home
yes 3.4% no 96.6%
away
yes 15.6% no 84.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Grimsby predictions · Bristol Rvs predictions · League Two

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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