2. BundesligaNurnberg vs Hannover Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 65.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 82.4% for over 2.5 to 29.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.4%. Head to head on cards, Hannover are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.5%, with a level count at 19.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 82.4% | 17.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 29.3% | 70.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
62.7%
35.7%
68.1%
41.8%
Card handicap
| Nurnberg line | Nurnberg | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.9% | 80.1% |
| -0.5 | 36.1% | 63.9% |
| +0.5 | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| +1.5 | 73.4% | 26.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 74.2% | 25.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 60.7% | 39.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 46.3% | 53.7% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Nurnberg vs Hannover. Slightly more cards are projected for Hannover for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
65.4%Over 3.5 cards9.5%Any red card62.7%Nurnberg over 1.5 cards68.1%Hannover over 1.5 cards60.7%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Nurnberg over 1.5 cards sits at 62.7% and Hannover at 68.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.5% (Nurnberg 7.4%, Hannover 2.2%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Nurnberg vs Hannover?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 65.4% for Nurnberg vs Hannover.
Will there be a red card in Nurnberg vs Hannover?
The model rates a red card for either side at 9.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Nurnberg vs Hannover?
The model rates Hannover to pick up more cards at 44.5%, with a level count at 19.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More 2. Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.