Clermont vs Boulogne prediction & probabilities (2026-09-11)

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Clermont vs Boulogne: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 11 Sep 2026

Ligue 2
Clermont

DLDDD

Fri, 11 Sep 202619:00UK
Boulogne

DLDDD

Model’s top convictions

71%

Clermont or draw

68%

Under 2.5 goals

61%

Draw or Boulogne

Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.023 <= 0.03.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
ClermontWin probability
38.8%
Top 3 convictions

Clermont or draw70.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.41
Under 2.5 goals67.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.48
Draw or Boulogne61.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.63

Model read

▾

Expect a tight one: the model splits Clermont and Boulogne almost evenly, Clermont marginally on top at 39%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 40%. 2) The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 32% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 40%. 3) The run in: Clermont arrive W1 D4 L1, Boulogne W0 D4 L2. Head to head, the last 2 meetings gave 1 wins for Clermont, 1 draws and 0 for Boulogne, averaging 2.0 goals a game. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.023 <= 0.03).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners43.7%@ 2.29
Over 10.5 corners33.6%@ 2.98
Over 2.5 goals32.4%@ 3.09
Medium risk

Over 1.5 goals60.1%@ 1.66
Not both teams to score59.6%@ 1.68
Over 8.5 corners54.7%@ 1.83
Random finds

0-0 correct score14.2%@ 7.05
1-0 correct score14.1%@ 7.10
1-1 correct score14.1%@ 7.10

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Clermont

38.8%-0.7%

Draw

32.0%+2.3%

Boulogne

29.2%-1.6%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.023 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.560.1%

Strong chance

Over 2.532.4%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes40.4%

Toss-up

Corners markets

Over 8.554.7%

Good chance

Over 9.543.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.533.6%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.9%

Low chance

Most cornersClermont53.3%Boulogne35.5%

Shots markets

Over 22.550.3%

Good chance

Over 24.537.5%

Toss-up

Over 26.526.3%

Low chance

Over 28.517.3%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Clermont9.3 taken14.7 faced
Boulogne11.3 taken11.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.560.1%2.532.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.560.1%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.023 <= 0.03.

Form & head-to-head

ClermontDLDDD
BoulogneDLDDD

Last 2 meetings: Clermont 1 · 1 draws · Boulogne 0 · 2.0 goals/game.

2026-02-20Boulogne 0-2 Clermont
2025-12-05Clermont 1-1 Boulogne

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

ClermontBoulogne
League position#14 of 18#13 of 18
Record W-D-L0-4-10-4-1
Current streakD3D3
Points per game0.800.80
Record, home vs away0-3-00-1-1
PPG, home vs away1.00·
Goals scored per game0.600.40
Goals conceded per game1.000.60
Scored, home vs away0.33·
Conceded, home vs away0.33·
1st half goals per game0.000.20
2nd half goals per game0.600.20
Corners won per game5.23.8
Cards per game1.02.6
Fouls per game13.216.2
Red cards this season01
Shots per game7.412.2
Shots faced per game14.211.2
Shots on target per game1.84.6
Over 2.5 rate

20.0%0.0%

BTTS rate

60.0%40.0%

Clean sheets

40.0%40.0%

Rates this season:ClermontBoulogne

League averages this season: 2.56 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 44% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Clermont win2.302.58
Draw3.003.13
Boulogne win2.903.42
Over 2.5 goals2.203.09
Under 2.5 goals1.651.48

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Clermont win2.58
Draw3.13
Boulogne win3.42
Both teams to score2.48

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.17
Over 1.5 goals1.66
Over 2.5 goals3.09
Over 3.5 goals6.97
Clermont most2.58
Boulogne most3.42

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.46
Over 8.5 corners1.78
Over 9.5 corners2.27
Over 10.5 corners3.05
Clermont most1.87
Boulogne most2.81

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.42
Over 3.5 cards2.03
Over 4.5 cards3.33
Over 5.5 cards6.22
Clermont most3.16
Boulogne most2.13

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.63
Over 7.5 SoT2.08
Over 8.5 SoT2.81
Over 9.5 SoT4.01
Clermont most2.12
Boulogne most2.54

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.99
Over 24.5 shots2.67
Over 26.5 shots3.81
Over 28.5 shots5.78
Clermont most1.81
Boulogne most2.62

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.12
Over 22.5 fouls1.24
Over 24.5 fouls1.45
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 50.3% Over 24.5 37.5% Over 26.5 26.3% Over 28.5 17.3%
Most: Clermont 55.3% Most: Boulogne 38.1%
Clermont Over 13.2 35.0% Boulogne Over 13.2 24.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 61.3% Over 7.5 48.0% Over 8.5 35.5% Over 9.5 24.9%
Most: Clermont 47.1% Most: Boulogne 39.3%
Clermont Over 4.2 36.1% Boulogne Over 4.2 30.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 70.3% Over 3.5 49.2% Over 4.5 30.0%
Most: Clermont 31.7% Most: Boulogne 46.9%
Clermont Over 1.8 48.4% Boulogne Over 1.8 59.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Clermont clean sheet 40.2%
Boulogne clean sheet 33.5%
Clermont win to nil 26.0%
Boulogne win to nil 19.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 38.8% draw 32.0% away 29.2%
double_chance
1X 70.8% 12 68.0% X2 61.2%
dnb
home 57.0% away 43.0%
btts
yes 40.4% no 59.6%
clean_sheet
home 40.3% away 33.5%
win_to_nil
home 26.1% away 19.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.7% home_by_2 11.1% home_by_3plus 5.0%
away_by_1 18.8% away_by_2 7.7% away_by_3plus 2.7%
correct_score
0-0 14.2% 0-1 11.6% 0-2 5.6%
0-3 1.7% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 14.1% 1-1 14.1% 1-2 6.1%
1-3 1.9% 1-4 0.4% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 8.1% 2-1 7.3% 2-2 3.3%
2-3 1.0% 2-4 0.2% 2-5 0.0%
3-0 2.9% 3-1 2.7% 3-2 1.2%
3-3 0.4% 3-4 0.1% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 0.8% 4-1 0.7% 4-2 0.3%
4-3 0.1% 4-4 0.0% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.1%
likeliest_score
h 0.0% a 0.0% p 14.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 85.8% under_0.5 14.2% over_1.5 60.1%
under_1.5 39.9% over_2.5 32.4% under_2.5 67.6%
over_3.5 14.4% under_3.5 85.7% over_4.5 5.3%
under_4.5 94.7% over_5.5 1.7% under_5.5 98.3%
odd_even
odd 47.7% even 52.3%
team_home
over_0.5 66.5% under_0.5 33.5% over_1.5 29.8%
under_1.5 70.2% over_2.5 9.8% under_2.5 90.2%
team_away
over_0.5 59.7% under_0.5 40.3% over_1.5 23.1%
under_1.5 76.9% over_2.5 6.5% under_2.5 93.5%
most
home 38.8% draw 32.0% away 29.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 5.0% away_+2.5 95.0% home_-1.5 16.0%
away_+1.5 84.0% home_-0.5 38.8% away_+0.5 61.2%
home_+0.5 70.8% away_-0.5 29.2% home_+1.5 89.6%
away_-1.5 10.4% home_+2.5 97.3% away_-2.5 2.7%
total_exact
exact_0 14.2% exact_1 25.7% exact_2 27.7%
exact_3 18.1% exact_4 9.0% exact_5 3.6%
exact_6 1.2% exact_7plus 0.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 27.7% draw 54.1% away 18.2%
total
over_0.5 52.5% under_0.5 47.5% over_1.5 17.1%
under_1.5 82.9% over_2.5 4.0% under_2.5 96.0%
btts
yes 9.4% no 90.6%
total_exact
exact_0 47.5% exact_1 35.4% exact_2 13.2%
exact_3 3.3% exact_4plus 0.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.5% draw 41.9% away 26.5%
total
over_0.5 69.9% under_0.5 30.1% over_1.5 33.8%
under_1.5 66.3% over_2.5 12.1% under_2.5 87.9%
btts
yes 20.3% no 79.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 21.5% H/D 4.7% H/A 1.5%
D/H 17.1% D/D 22.7% D/A 14.4%
A/H 1.4% A/D 3.7% A/A 13.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 68.5% under_7.5 31.5% over_8.5 56.3%
under_8.5 43.7% over_9.5 44.1% under_9.5 55.9%
over_10.5 32.8% under_10.5 67.2% over_11.5 23.2%
under_11.5 76.8% over_12.5 15.7% under_12.5 84.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 70.2% under_3.5 29.8% over_4.5 54.2%
under_4.5 45.8% over_5.5 38.9% under_5.5 61.1%
team_away
over_3.5 57.9% under_3.5 42.1% over_4.5 40.6%
under_4.5 59.4% over_5.5 26.2% under_5.5 73.8%
most
home 53.4% draw 11.1% away 35.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.3% away_+3.5 77.7% home_-1.5 42.1%
away_+1.5 57.9% home_-0.5 53.4% away_+0.5 46.6%
home_+0.5 64.5% away_-0.5 35.5% home_+1.5 74.4%
away_-1.5 25.6% home_+3.5 88.9% away_-3.5 11.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 50.3% under_22.5 49.7% over_24.5 37.5%
under_24.5 62.5% over_26.5 26.3% under_26.5 73.7%
over_28.5 17.3% under_28.5 82.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 61.4% under_10.5 38.6% over_12.5 43.3%
under_12.5 56.7% over_14.5 27.6% under_14.5 72.4%
team_away
over_10.5 49.4% under_10.5 50.6% over_12.5 31.4%
under_12.5 68.6% over_14.5 17.8% under_14.5 82.2%
most
home 55.3% draw 6.6% away 38.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 29.4% away_+4.5 70.6% home_-2.5 41.9%
away_+2.5 58.1% home_-0.5 55.3% away_+0.5 44.7%
home_+0.5 61.9% away_-0.5 38.1% home_+2.5 73.9%
away_-2.5 26.1% home_+4.5 83.6% away_-4.5 16.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 61.3% under_6.5 38.7% over_7.5 48.0%
under_7.5 52.0% over_8.5 35.5% under_8.5 64.5%
over_9.5 25.0% under_9.5 75.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 53.7% under_3.5 46.3% over_4.5 36.1%
under_4.5 63.9% over_5.5 22.2% under_5.5 77.8%
team_away
over_3.5 48.1% under_3.5 51.9% over_4.5 30.7%
under_4.5 69.3% over_5.5 17.9% under_5.5 82.1%
most
home 47.1% draw 13.5% away 39.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 22.7% away_+2.5 77.3% home_-0.5 47.1%
away_+0.5 52.9% home_+0.5 60.7% away_-0.5 39.3%
home_+2.5 82.9% away_-2.5 17.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 70.3% under_2.5 29.7% over_3.5 49.2%
under_3.5 50.8% over_4.5 30.0% under_4.5 70.0%
over_5.5 16.1% under_5.5 83.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 48.4% under_1.5 51.6% over_2.5 22.4%
under_2.5 77.6%
team_away
over_1.5 59.6% under_1.5 40.4% over_2.5 32.5%
under_2.5 67.5%
most
home 31.7% draw 21.5% away 46.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.3% away_+1.5 84.7% home_-0.5 31.7%
away_+0.5 68.3% home_+0.5 53.1% away_-0.5 46.9%
home_+1.5 73.3% away_-1.5 26.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 89.4% under_20.5 10.7% over_22.5 80.7%
under_22.5 19.3% over_24.5 69.1% under_24.5 30.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 80.1% under_9.5 19.9% over_11.5 61.8%
under_11.5 38.2% over_13.5 41.6% under_13.5 58.4%
team_away
over_9.5 89.6% under_9.5 10.4% over_11.5 76.6%
under_11.5 23.4% over_13.5 58.9% under_13.5 41.1%
most
home 34.7% draw 6.7% away 58.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 17.9% away_+3.5 82.1% home_-0.5 34.7%
away_+0.5 65.3% home_+2.5 55.3% away_-2.5 44.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 19.2% no 80.8%
home
yes 10.1% no 89.9%
away
yes 10.2% no 89.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Clermont predictions · Boulogne predictions · Ligue 2

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Ligue 2ClermontBoulogneTrack record