2. BundesligaKarlsruhe vs Cottbus Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 64.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 81.4% for over 2.5 to 27.9% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.8%. On the card count, Cottbus are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.8%, with a level count at 19.6%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 81.4% | 18.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 27.9% | 72.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
62.7%
35.8%
66.2%
39.6%
Card handicap
| Karlsruhe line | Karlsruhe | Cottbus |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.9% | 79.1% |
| -0.5 | 37.6% | 62.4% |
| +0.5 | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| +1.5 | 75.0% | 25.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 70.6% | 29.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 41.9% | 58.1% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Karlsruhe vs Cottbus. The model leans toward Cottbus for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
64.0%Over 3.5 cards10.5%Any red card62.7%Karlsruhe over 1.5 cards66.2%Cottbus over 1.5 cards56.4%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Karlsruhe over 1.5 cards sits at 62.7% and Cottbus at 66.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.5% (Karlsruhe 7.2%, Cottbus 3.5%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Karlsruhe vs Cottbus?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 64.0% for Karlsruhe vs Cottbus.
Will there be a red card in Karlsruhe vs Cottbus?
The model rates a red card for either side at 10.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Karlsruhe vs Cottbus?
The model rates Cottbus to pick up more cards at 42.8%, with a level count at 19.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More 2. Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.