2. BundesligaNurnberg vs Hannover Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 63.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.4% for over 22.5 to 39.1% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.4%. On the shot count, Nurnberg are the model’s pick to have more shots at 53.7%, with a level count at 6.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| 24.5 shots | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 39.1% | 60.9% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
77.2%
61.0%
43.8%
69.4%
51.4%
34.2%
Shot handicap
| Nurnberg line | Nurnberg | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 29.3% | 70.7% |
| -2.5 | 41.1% | 58.9% |
| -0.5 | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| +0.5 | 60.0% | 40.0% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 78.8% | 21.2% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 43.3% | 56.7% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Nurnberg.
In-depth analysis
63.9%Over 24.5 shots61.0%Nurnberg over 12.5 shots51.4%Hannover over 12.5 shots67.7%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Nurnberg over 12.5 shots sits at 61.0% and Hannover at 51.4%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Nurnberg vs Hannover?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 63.9% for Nurnberg vs Hannover.
Which team will have more shots in Nurnberg vs Hannover?
The model rates Nurnberg to take more shots at 53.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,742 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More 2. Bundesliga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.