Darmstadt vs Bielefeld prediction & probabilities (2026-09-11)

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Darmstadt vs Bielefeld: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 11 Sep 2026

2. Bundesliga
Darmstadt

LDLLL

Fri, 11 Sep 202617:30UK
Bielefeld

WLWLD

Model’s top convictions

82%

Over 1.5 goals

67%

Over 8.5 corners

66%

Darmstadt or draw

Fairly pricedOutside trust zone (model prob 0.41, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
DarmstadtWin probability
41.3%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals81.5%High probabilityPays @ 1.23
Over 8.5 corners67.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.49
Darmstadt or draw66.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.51

Model read

▾

Little between these two in the data. Darmstadt at 41% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 11 September 2026. Notably, the model is warmer on Darmstadt than the market (31%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. No strong lean on goals (59% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Darmstadt, 2 draws and 3 for Bielefeld at 2.8 goals per match. Recent form reads W0 D2 L4 for Darmstadt against W2 D1 L3 for Bielefeld. Verdict: no bet. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.41, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners46.4%@ 2.16
Over 11.5 corners36.5%@ 2.74
Bielefeld win33.6%@ 2.98
Medium risk

Both teams to score61.7%@ 1.62
Over 2.5 goals59.0%@ 1.69
Draw or Bielefeld58.6%@ 1.71
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.5%@ 8.70
2-1 correct score8.9%@ 11.30
1-2 correct score7.9%@ 12.69

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Darmstadt

41.3%+10.1%

Draw

25.0%-0.7%

Bielefeld

33.6%-9.5%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.41, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.581.5%

High probability

Over 2.559.0%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes61.7%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.567.3%

Strong chance

Over 9.556.9%

Good chance

Over 10.546.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.536.5%

Toss-up

Most cornersDarmstadt45.9%Bielefeld43.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.578.3%

High probability

Over 24.567.4%

Strong chance

Over 26.555.3%

Good chance

Over 28.542.8%

Reasonable chance

Recent shot volume

Darmstadt14.8 taken14.5 faced
Bielefeld17.3 taken12.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.581.5%2.559.0%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.581.5%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.41, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Form & head-to-head

DarmstadtLDLLL
BielefeldWLWLD

Last 5 meetings: Darmstadt 0 · 2 draws · Bielefeld 3 · 2.8 goals/game.

2026-04-04Bielefeld 2-1 Darmstadt
2025-11-01Darmstadt 2-2 Bielefeld
2023-03-11Bielefeld 3-1 Darmstadt
2022-09-04Darmstadt 1-1 Bielefeld
2020-06-18Bielefeld 1-0 Darmstadt

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

DarmstadtBielefeld
League position#18 of 18#10 of 18
Record W-D-L0-1-31-1-2
Current streakL3D1
Record, home vs away0-1-10-0-2
Red cards this season20

League averages this season: 3.64 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 69% · BTTS in 61%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Darmstadt win3.002.42
Draw3.604.00
Bielefeld win2.202.98
Over 2.5 goals1.601.69
Under 2.5 goals2.302.44

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Darmstadt win2.42
Draw4.00
Bielefeld win2.97
Both teams to score1.62

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.23
Over 2.5 goals1.70
Over 3.5 goals2.73
Darmstadt most2.42
Bielefeld most2.97

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.25
Over 8.5 corners1.43
Over 9.5 corners1.70
Over 10.5 corners2.13
Darmstadt most2.18
Bielefeld most2.31

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.29
Over 3.5 cards1.71
Over 4.5 cards2.56
Over 5.5 cards4.34
Darmstadt most2.62
Bielefeld most2.41

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.22
Over 7.5 SoT1.40
Over 8.5 SoT1.67
Over 9.5 SoT2.09
Darmstadt most1.83
Bielefeld most2.98

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.28
Over 24.5 shots1.48
Over 26.5 shots1.81
Over 28.5 shots2.33
Darmstadt most1.76
Bielefeld most2.69

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.30
Over 22.5 fouls1.57
Over 24.5 fouls2.01
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 78.3% Over 24.5 67.4% Over 26.5 55.2% Over 28.5 42.8%
Most: Darmstadt 56.8% Most: Bielefeld 37.1%
Darmstadt Over 13.2 57.1% Bielefeld Over 13.2 43.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 81.7% Over 7.5 71.6% Over 8.5 59.9% Over 9.5 47.9%
Most: Darmstadt 54.6% Most: Bielefeld 33.6%
Darmstadt Over 4.2 58.1% Bielefeld Over 4.2 42.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 77.6% Over 3.5 58.5% Over 4.5 39.0%
Most: Darmstadt 38.2% Most: Bielefeld 41.4%
Darmstadt Over 1.8 59.6% Bielefeld Over 1.8 61.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Darmstadt clean sheet 23.6%
Bielefeld clean sheet 19.8%
Darmstadt win to nil 18.3%
Bielefeld win to nil 14.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 41.3% draw 25.0% away 33.6%
double_chance
1X 66.4% 12 75.0% X2 58.7%
dnb
home 55.1% away 44.9%
btts
yes 61.7% no 38.3%
clean_sheet
home 23.7% away 19.9%
win_to_nil
home 18.5% away 14.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.1% home_by_2 12.6% home_by_3plus 8.7%
away_by_1 17.8% away_by_2 10.0% away_by_3plus 5.9%
correct_score
0-0 5.3% 0-1 6.2% 0-2 4.9%
0-3 2.4% 0-4 0.9% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 7.0% 1-1 11.5% 1-2 7.9%
1-3 3.8% 1-4 1.4% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 6.2% 2-1 8.9% 2-2 6.4%
2-3 3.1% 2-4 1.1% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 3.3% 3-1 4.8% 3-2 3.4%
3-3 1.7% 3-4 0.6% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 1.4% 4-1 1.9% 4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.7% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.6% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.0%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.8% under_0.5 5.3% over_1.5 81.5%
under_1.5 18.5% over_2.5 59.0% under_2.5 41.0%
over_3.5 36.6% under_3.5 63.4% over_4.5 19.5%
under_4.5 80.5% over_5.5 9.0% under_5.5 91.0%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 80.2% under_0.5 19.9% over_1.5 48.1%
under_1.5 51.9% over_2.5 22.1% under_2.5 77.9%
team_away
over_0.5 76.3% under_0.5 23.7% over_1.5 42.2%
under_1.5 57.8% over_2.5 17.6% under_2.5 82.4%
most
home 41.3% draw 25.0% away 33.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.7% away_+2.5 91.3% home_-1.5 21.3%
away_+1.5 78.7% home_-0.5 41.3% away_+0.5 58.7%
home_+0.5 66.4% away_-0.5 33.6% home_+1.5 84.2%
away_-1.5 15.8% home_+2.5 94.1% away_-2.5 5.9%
total_exact
exact_0 5.3% exact_1 13.3% exact_2 22.5%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 17.1% exact_5 10.5%
exact_6 5.3% exact_7plus 3.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 33.7% draw 38.1% away 28.2%
total
over_0.5 75.5% under_0.5 24.5% over_1.5 41.1%
under_1.5 58.9% over_2.5 16.8% under_2.5 83.2%
btts
yes 25.4% no 74.6%
total_exact
exact_0 24.5% exact_1 34.4% exact_2 24.3%
exact_3 11.4% exact_4plus 5.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 37.2% draw 34.8% away 28.0%
total
over_0.5 80.4% under_0.5 19.6% over_1.5 48.4%
under_1.5 51.6% over_2.5 22.4% under_2.5 77.6%
btts
yes 30.7% no 69.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 26.5% H/D 5.1% H/A 2.1%
D/H 14.2% D/D 13.3% D/A 10.7%
A/H 2.9% A/D 5.6% A/A 19.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 80.2% under_7.5 19.9% over_8.5 70.1%
under_8.5 29.9% over_9.5 58.7% under_9.5 41.3%
over_10.5 47.0% under_10.5 53.0% over_11.5 36.0%
under_11.5 64.0% over_12.5 26.3% under_12.5 73.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.9% under_3.5 26.1% over_4.5 58.5%
under_4.5 41.5% over_5.5 43.0% under_5.5 57.1%
team_away
over_3.5 72.4% under_3.5 27.6% over_4.5 56.6%
under_4.5 43.4% over_5.5 41.0% under_5.5 59.0%
most
home 46.0% draw 10.7% away 43.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 18.5% away_+3.5 81.6% home_-1.5 35.6%
away_+1.5 64.4% home_-0.5 46.0% away_+0.5 54.0%
home_+0.5 56.6% away_-0.5 43.4% home_+1.5 66.8%
away_-1.5 33.2% home_+3.5 83.3% away_-3.5 16.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 78.3% under_22.5 21.7% over_24.5 67.4%
under_24.5 32.6% over_26.5 55.3% under_26.5 44.8%
over_28.5 42.8% under_28.5 57.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 80.6% under_10.5 19.5% over_12.5 65.5%
under_12.5 34.5% over_14.5 48.6% under_14.5 51.4%
team_away
over_10.5 69.9% under_10.5 30.1% over_12.5 51.9%
under_12.5 48.1% over_14.5 34.7% under_14.5 65.3%
most
home 56.8% draw 6.1% away 37.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 32.2% away_+4.5 67.8% home_-2.5 44.2%
away_+2.5 55.8% home_-0.5 56.8% away_+0.5 43.3%
home_+0.5 62.9% away_-0.5 37.1% home_+2.5 74.0%
away_-2.5 26.0% home_+4.5 83.1% away_-4.5 16.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 81.7% under_6.5 18.3% over_7.5 71.6%
under_7.5 28.4% over_8.5 59.9% under_8.5 40.1%
over_9.5 47.9% under_9.5 52.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.1% under_3.5 25.9% over_4.5 58.1%
under_4.5 41.9% over_5.5 42.0% under_5.5 58.0%
team_away
over_3.5 61.0% under_3.5 39.0% over_4.5 42.9%
under_4.5 57.1% over_5.5 27.5% under_5.5 72.6%
most
home 54.6% draw 11.9% away 33.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 30.9% away_+2.5 69.1% home_-0.5 54.6%
away_+0.5 45.4% home_+0.5 66.4% away_-0.5 33.6%
home_+2.5 85.1% away_-2.5 14.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 77.6% under_2.5 22.4% over_3.5 58.5%
under_3.5 41.5% over_4.5 39.0% under_4.5 61.0%
over_5.5 23.0% under_5.5 77.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 59.6% under_1.5 40.4% over_2.5 32.5%
under_2.5 67.5%
team_away
over_1.5 61.8% under_1.5 38.2% over_2.5 34.8%
under_2.5 65.2%
most
home 38.2% draw 20.4% away 41.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.8% away_+1.5 79.2% home_-0.5 38.2%
away_+0.5 61.8% home_+0.5 58.6% away_-0.5 41.4%
home_+1.5 76.6% away_-1.5 23.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 76.7% under_20.5 23.3% over_22.5 63.8%
under_22.5 36.2% over_24.5 49.7% under_24.5 50.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 72.1% under_9.5 27.9% over_11.5 51.9%
under_11.5 48.1% over_13.5 32.5% under_13.5 67.5%
team_away
over_9.5 78.4% under_9.5 21.6% over_11.5 60.0%
under_11.5 40.0% over_13.5 40.5% under_13.5 59.5%
most
home 40.7% draw 7.1% away 52.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.9% away_+3.5 78.1% home_-0.5 40.7%
away_+0.5 59.3% home_+2.5 62.0% away_-2.5 38.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 19.6% no 80.4%
home
yes 12.2% no 87.8%
away
yes 8.4% no 91.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Darmstadt predictions · Bielefeld predictions · 2. Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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2. BundesligaDarmstadtBielefeldTrack record