Ligue 1
Nice vs 
Lorient Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 51.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. For context, Nice are favoured at 38.7%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Nice vs Lorient. Slightly more cards are projected for Lorient for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Reading the match, Nice are favoured at 38.7%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Nice to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Nice 1 · 3 draws · Lorient 1 · 3.4 goals/game.
FAQ
How many cards in Nice vs Lorient?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 51.1% for Nice vs Lorient.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Cards-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.