Le Mans vs Brest prediction & probabilities (2026-08-22)

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Le Mans vs Brest: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 22 Aug 2026

Ligue 1
Le Mans
Full time2-2Sat, 22 Aug 202619:45UK
Brest

DLLLD

Model’s top convictions

77%

Over 1.5 goals

65%

Draw or Brest

62%

Le Mans or draw

Full time2 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Le Mans 2-2 Brest
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Both teams to score
2 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Brest at 38.4%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 52.7% and it landed (4 goals). We called Yes at 57.1% and it landed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
BrestWin probability
38.4%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals77.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.30
Draw or Brest64.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.55
Le Mans or draw61.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.62

Model read

▾

The probabilities barely separate Le Mans and Brest on 22 August 2026: Brest nose ahead at 38%. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Our number sits above the market's 35% for Brest. The gap itself is information. 2) No strong lean on goals (53% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) As a promoted side, Le Mans carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The engine passes on this one (conservative EV -0.007 <= 0).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners39.5%@ 2.53
Brest win38.4%@ 2.60
Over 11.5 corners30.3%@ 3.30
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners60.5%@ 1.65
Both teams to score57.1%@ 1.75
Over 2.5 goals52.7%@ 1.90
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.6%@ 7.96
1-2 correct score8.5%@ 11.76
0-1 correct score8.2%@ 12.22

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Le Mans

35.5%-1.8%

Draw

26.1%-1.5%

Brest

38.4%+3.3%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.007 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.577.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.552.7%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes57.1%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.5%

Strong chance

Over 9.549.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.539.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.3%

Toss-up

Most cornersLe Mans62.3%Brest27.6%

Shots markets

Over 22.561.6%

Strong chance

Over 24.548.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.536.6%

Toss-up

Over 28.525.8%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.577.2%2.552.7%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.577.2%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

BrestDLLLD

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Abdallah SimaBrest · key player
To score20.0%

@ 5.00

1+ on target46.6%

@ 2.15

2+ shots41.0%

@ 2.44

Shots/90 2.78SoT/90 1.24Goals/90 0.44
Remy Labeau LascaryBrest · in form
To score16.8%

@ 5.95

1+ on target42.7%

@ 2.34

2+ shots35.9%

@ 2.79

Shots/90 2.6SoT/90 1.15Goals/90 0.38
Romain FaivreBrest · in form
To score14.7%

@ 6.80

1+ on target40.8%

@ 2.45

2+ shots26.4%

@ 3.79

Shots/90 1.94SoT/90 1.02Goals/90 0.31

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Le Mans win2.552.82
Draw3.403.83
Brest win2.702.60
Over 2.5 goals1.881.90
Under 2.5 goals1.982.11

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Le Mans win2.82
Draw3.77
Brest win2.63
Both teams to score1.75

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.30
Over 2.5 goals1.90
Over 3.5 goals3.28
Le Mans most2.82
Brest most2.63

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.34
Over 8.5 corners1.59
Over 9.5 corners1.96
Over 10.5 corners2.54
Le Mans most1.60
Brest most3.61

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.43
Over 3.5 cards2.05
Over 4.5 cards3.39
Over 5.5 cards6.36
Le Mans most2.98
Brest most2.24

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.36
Over 7.5 SoT1.62
Over 8.5 SoT2.03
Over 9.5 SoT2.68
Le Mans most1.63
Brest most3.72

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.62
Over 24.5 shots2.05
Over 26.5 shots2.73
Over 28.5 shots3.88
Le Mans most1.52
Brest most3.53

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.37
Over 22.5 fouls1.68
Over 24.5 fouls2.20
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 73.8% Over 7.5 61.8% Over 8.5 49.2% Over 9.5 37.3%
Most: Le Mans 61.4% Most: Brest 26.9%
Le Mans Over 4.2 55.3% Brest Over 4.2 30.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 69.9% Over 3.5 48.7% Over 4.5 29.5%
Most: Le Mans 33.6% Most: Brest 44.7%
Le Mans Over 1.8 49.6% Brest Over 1.8 57.8%

Brest: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Abdallah Sima 2.78 1.24 0.44 46.6% 41.0% 20.0%
Remy Labeau Lascary 2.6 1.15 0.38 42.7% 35.9% 16.8%
Romain Faivre 1.94 1.02 0.31 40.8% 26.4% 14.7%
Pathé Mboup 2.01 0.88 0.09 30.2% 19.8% 3.6%
Pereira Lage 1.98 0.84 0.12 39.4% 33.0% 6.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Le Mans clean sheet 24.1%
Brest clean sheet 25.5%
Le Mans win to nil 17.3%
Brest win to nil 18.7%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 35.4% draw 26.6% away 38.1%
double_chance
1X 62.0% 12 73.5% X2 64.6%
dnb
home 48.2% away 51.8%
btts
yes 57.1% no 43.0%
clean_sheet
home 24.1% away 25.6%
win_to_nil
home 17.4% away 18.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.1% home_by_2 10.5% home_by_3plus 5.9%
away_by_1 19.9% away_by_2 11.4% away_by_3plus 6.8%
correct_score
0-0 6.8% 0-1 8.2% 0-2 6.2%
0-3 3.0% 0-4 1.1% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 7.8% 1-1 12.6% 1-2 8.5%
1-3 4.0% 1-4 1.4% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 5.7% 2-1 8.2% 2-2 5.8%
2-3 2.8% 2-4 1.0% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 2.6% 3-1 3.7% 3-2 2.6%
3-3 1.3% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.9% 4-1 1.3% 4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.2% under_0.5 6.8% over_1.5 77.2%
under_1.5 22.8% over_2.5 52.7% under_2.5 47.3%
over_3.5 30.5% under_3.5 69.5% over_4.5 15.0%
under_4.5 85.0% over_5.5 6.4% under_5.5 93.6%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 74.4% under_0.5 25.6% over_1.5 39.5%
under_1.5 60.5% over_2.5 15.8% under_2.5 84.2%
team_away
over_0.5 75.9% under_0.5 24.1% over_1.5 41.6%
under_1.5 58.4% over_2.5 17.2% under_2.5 82.8%
most
home 35.4% draw 26.6% away 38.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 5.9% away_+2.5 94.1% home_-1.5 16.3%
away_+1.5 83.7% home_-0.5 35.4% away_+0.5 64.6%
home_+0.5 61.9% away_-0.5 38.1% home_+1.5 81.9%
away_-1.5 18.1% home_+2.5 93.3% away_-2.5 6.8%
total_exact
exact_0 6.8% exact_1 16.0% exact_2 24.5%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 15.5% exact_5 8.6%
exact_6 4.0% exact_7plus 2.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 36.3% draw 37.5% away 26.2%
total
over_0.5 76.2% under_0.5 23.8% over_1.5 42.1%
under_1.5 57.9% over_2.5 17.6% under_2.5 82.4%
btts
yes 25.9% no 74.1%
total_exact
exact_0 23.8% exact_1 34.2% exact_2 24.5%
exact_3 11.8% exact_4plus 5.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 42.7% draw 35.7% away 21.7%
total
over_0.5 77.9% under_0.5 22.1% over_1.5 44.5%
under_1.5 55.5% over_2.5 19.4% under_2.5 80.7%
btts
yes 26.5% no 73.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 30.5% H/D 4.4% H/A 1.4%
D/H 16.0% D/D 13.4% D/A 8.1%
A/H 3.3% A/D 5.8% A/A 17.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.4% under_7.5 25.7% over_8.5 63.1%
under_8.5 36.9% over_9.5 51.1% under_9.5 48.9%
over_10.5 39.4% under_10.5 60.6% over_11.5 29.0%
under_11.5 71.0% over_12.5 20.3% under_12.5 79.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 78.5% under_3.5 21.5% over_4.5 64.6%
under_4.5 35.4% over_5.5 49.8% under_5.5 50.2%
team_away
over_3.5 55.4% under_3.5 44.6% over_4.5 38.0%
under_4.5 62.0% over_5.5 23.9% under_5.5 76.1%
most
home 62.4% draw 9.9% away 27.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 30.9% away_+3.5 69.1% home_-1.5 51.7%
away_+1.5 48.3% home_-0.5 62.4% away_+0.5 37.6%
home_+0.5 72.3% away_-0.5 27.7% home_+1.5 80.7%
away_-1.5 19.3% home_+3.5 92.1% away_-3.5 7.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.6% under_22.5 38.4% over_24.5 48.8%
under_24.5 51.2% over_26.5 36.6% under_26.5 63.4%
over_28.5 25.8% under_28.5 74.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.8% under_10.5 25.3% over_12.5 58.7%
under_12.5 41.3% over_14.5 42.2% under_14.5 57.8%
team_away
over_10.5 49.4% under_10.5 50.6% over_12.5 31.3%
under_12.5 68.7% over_14.5 17.8% under_14.5 82.2%
most
home 65.9% draw 5.7% away 28.3%
handicap
home_-4.5 40.6% away_+4.5 59.4% home_-2.5 53.4%
away_+2.5 46.6% home_-0.5 65.9% away_+0.5 34.1%
home_+0.5 71.7% away_-0.5 28.3% home_+2.5 81.5%
away_-2.5 18.5% home_+4.5 88.9% away_-4.5 11.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 73.8% under_6.5 26.2% over_7.5 61.8%
under_7.5 38.2% over_8.5 49.3% under_8.5 50.7%
over_9.5 37.3% under_9.5 62.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.6% under_3.5 28.4% over_4.5 55.3%
under_4.5 44.7% over_5.5 39.4% under_5.5 60.6%
team_away
over_3.5 47.7% under_3.5 52.3% over_4.5 30.0%
under_4.5 70.0% over_5.5 17.0% under_5.5 83.0%
most
home 61.4% draw 11.7% away 26.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 36.3% away_+2.5 63.7% home_-0.5 61.4%
away_+0.5 38.6% home_+0.5 73.1% away_-0.5 26.9%
home_+2.5 89.6% away_-2.5 10.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 69.9% under_2.5 30.1% over_3.5 48.7%
under_3.5 51.3% over_4.5 29.5% under_4.5 70.5%
over_5.5 15.7% under_5.5 84.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 49.6% under_1.5 50.4% over_2.5 23.4%
under_2.5 76.6%
team_away
over_1.5 57.8% under_1.5 42.2% over_2.5 30.8%
under_2.5 69.2%
most
home 33.6% draw 21.7% away 44.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.6% away_+1.5 83.4% home_-0.5 33.6%
away_+0.5 66.4% home_+0.5 55.3% away_-0.5 44.7%
home_+1.5 75.1% away_-1.5 24.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 73.2% under_20.5 26.8% over_22.5 59.7%
under_22.5 40.3% over_24.5 45.4% under_24.5 54.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 71.1% under_9.5 28.9% over_11.5 50.9%
under_11.5 49.1% over_13.5 31.8% under_13.5 68.2%
team_away
over_9.5 74.4% under_9.5 25.6% over_11.5 55.0%
under_11.5 45.0% over_13.5 35.6% under_13.5 64.4%
most
home 43.5% draw 7.2% away 49.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.0% away_+3.5 76.0% home_-0.5 43.5%
away_+0.5 56.5% home_+2.5 64.8% away_-2.5 35.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 18.6% no 81.4%
home
yes 9.6% no 90.4%
away
yes 10.0% no 90.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Le Mans predictions · Brest predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Ligue 1Le MansBrestTrack record