Ligue 1Estac Troyes vs 
Paris FC Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 50.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. On the result, Paris FC are favoured at 45.4%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Estac Troyes vs Paris FC. It tips Paris FC for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Reading the match, Paris FC are favoured at 45.4%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Paris FC to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
How many cards in Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 50.2% for Estac Troyes vs Paris FC.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Cards-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.