AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Ligue 2
MetzMetzLDLWD
Fri, 30 Oct 202630/1019:00UK
Pau FCPau FCLWWWW

Metz vs Pau FC corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined56.1%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined43.9%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners43.9%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Metz.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 68.4% 31.6%
8.5 corners 56.2% 43.8%
9.5 corners 43.9% 56.1%
10.5 corners 32.6% 67.4%
11.5 corners 23.1% 77.0%
12.5 corners 15.5% 84.5%

Who wins the corner count

Metz
54.5%
Level
11.1%
Pau FC
34.4%

Team corners lines

Metz

Over 3.5
70.8%
Over 4.5
54.9%
Over 5.5
39.5%

Pau FC

Over 3.5
57.1%
Over 4.5
39.7%
Over 5.5
25.3%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Metz's; Pau FC gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Metz line Metz Pau FC
-1.5 43.1% 56.9%
-0.5 54.5% 45.5%
+0.5 65.6% 34.4%
+1.5 75.4% 24.6%
MetzMetz

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Metz at home and Pau FC away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Pau FCPau FC
Statistic
Metz
Pau FC
Corners won per game at this venue
4.8
2.5

Corners conceded per game at this venue
5.6
5.5

First-half corners won per game
2.4
2.1

Second-half corners won per game
2.0
2.1

Matches with more corners than the opponent
30.0%
50.0%

Matches with corner data
10
10

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 43.9%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 68.4% for over 7.5 to 15.5% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.9%. Between the two sides, Metz are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 54.5%, with a level count at 11.1%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Metz over 4.5 corners sits at 54.9% and Pau FC at 39.7%. This season Metz have averaged 4.4 corners won a game and Pau FC 4.2.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

43.9%Over 9.5 corners
54.5%Most corners: Metz
54.9%Metz over 4.5 corners
39.7%Pau FC over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 43.9% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderMetz are the pick to win the corner count at 54.5%, territory tends to follow the side forcing the play.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 43.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
MetzMetz

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Pau FCPau FC
Statistic
Metz
Pau FC
corners won per game
4.4
4.2

corners conceded per game
5.0
3.9

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Metz vs Pau FC?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 43.9% for Metz vs Pau FC.
Which team will win the corner count in Metz vs Pau FC?
The model rates Metz to win the corner count at 54.5%, with a level count at 11.1%.
How many corners do Metz and Pau FC average this season?
Metz have won 4.4 corners a game this season and Pau FC 4.2.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

Ligue 2Metz fixtures and statsPau FC fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.