Segunda División
Mallorca vs Ceuta Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 72.5% and it landed (5 in the match). We called No at 86.4% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 72.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 86.9% for over 2.5 to 37.2% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.7%. Head to head on cards, Ceuta are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.0%, with a level count at 18.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 86.9% | 13.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 72.5% | 27.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 37.2% | 62.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
68.6%
42.3%
72.4%
47.1%
Card handicap
| Mallorca line | Mallorca | Ceuta |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.7% | 78.3% |
| -0.5 | 37.6% | 62.4% |
| +0.5 | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| +1.5 | 73.1% | 26.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 86.1% | 13.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 76.6% | 23.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 64.8% | 35.2% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Mallorca vs Ceuta. It tips Ceuta for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
72.5%Over 3.5 cards13.6%Any red card68.6%Mallorca over 1.5 cards72.4%Ceuta over 1.5 cards76.6%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Mallorca over 1.5 cards sits at 68.6% and Ceuta at 72.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.6% (Mallorca 5.9%, Ceuta 8.2%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Mallorca vs Ceuta?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 72.5% for Mallorca vs Ceuta.
Will there be a red card in Mallorca vs Ceuta?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Mallorca vs Ceuta?
Before kickoff, the model rated Ceuta to pick up more cards at 44.0%, with a level count at 18.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.