Segunda División
Mallorca vs Ceuta Corners
Result
We called Under 9.5 at 57.5% and it landed (6 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 42.3%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 67.6% for over 7.5 to 14.3% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.1%. On the corner count, Mallorca are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.3%, with a level count at 11.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| 8.5 corners | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| 9.5 corners | 42.6% | 57.5% |
| 10.5 corners | 31.2% | 68.8% |
| 11.5 corners | 21.7% | 78.3% |
| 12.5 corners | 14.3% | 85.7% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
72.0%
56.2%
40.6%
54.2%
36.5%
22.5%
Corner handicap
| Mallorca line | Mallorca | Ceuta |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 24.9% | 75.1% |
| -1.5 | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| -0.5 | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| +0.5 | 68.3% | 31.7% |
Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Mallorca.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Mallorca over 4.5 corners sits at 56.2% and Ceuta at 36.5%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Mallorca vs Ceuta?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 42.6% for Mallorca vs Ceuta.
Which team will win the corner count in Mallorca vs Ceuta?
Before kickoff, the model rated Mallorca to win the corner count at 57.3%, with a level count at 11.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,548 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.