Segunda División
Mallorca vs Ceuta Correct Score
Result
Final score 3-0. The model gave that exact scoreline 3.4%.
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 12.9% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Mallorca have averaged 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded, Ceuta 1.0 and 2.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 49.9% for over 2.5 and 75.2% for at least two goals. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-0 | 9.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% |
| 0-1 | 7.9% |
| 1-2 | 7.6% |
| 0-0 | 7.5% |
| 2-0 | 7.1% |
| 2-2 | 5.4% |
Score probability grid
| Mallorca \ Ceuta | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 9% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 7% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Mallorca goals, columns = Ceuta. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.9%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
54.7%Both Teams to Score49.9%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 49.9% for three or more goals and 75.2% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Mallorca favoured at 41.1%, a competitive game tends to open up.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What was the score in Mallorca vs Ceuta?
Mallorca vs Ceuta finished 3-0. The model's most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 12.9%; it gave the actual 3-0 a 3.4% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Segunda División, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.