Expected Goals (xG)

2.81Mainz xG created/game

1.73Mainz xG conceded/game

1.74Ein Frankfurt xG created/game

1.88Ein Frankfurt xG conceded/game

Recent xG created & conceded (per game)

Mainz have created 2.81 xG and scored 2.17 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG. Ein Frankfurt have created 1.74 xG and scored 1.67 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

In-depth analysis

51.7%Favoured: Mainz

63.4%Both Teams to Score

63.2%Over 2.5 goals

Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.

Match outlook

The model leans Mainz to win. See the full prediction →

Key players

This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Mainz 2 · 1 draws · Ein Frankfurt 2 · 2.2 goals/game.

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Overall model accuracy

We don’t yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

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