Bundesliga
Mainz vs 
Ein Frankfurt Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 50.7%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 75.3% for over 7.5 to 21.0% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.1%. Between the two sides, Mainz are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 62.3%, with a level count at 9.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 75.3% | 24.7% |
| 8.5 corners | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| 9.5 corners | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| 10.5 corners | 40.4% | 59.6% |
| 11.5 corners | 29.8% | 70.2% |
| 12.5 corners | 21.0% | 79.0% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
79.0%
65.2%
50.4%
56.2%
38.8%
24.6%
Corner handicap
| Mainz line | Mainz | Ein Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 30.9% | 69.1% |
| -1.5 | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| -0.5 | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| +0.5 | 72.1% | 27.9% |
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Mainz.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Mainz over 4.5 corners sits at 65.2% and Ein Frankfurt at 38.8%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Mainz vs Ein Frankfurt?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 52.1% for Mainz vs Ein Frankfurt.
Which team will win the corner count in Mainz vs Ein Frankfurt?
The model rates Mainz to win the corner count at 62.3%, with a level count at 9.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.