Ligue 1
Lyon vs 
Rennes Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 58.7%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Lyon have averaged 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded, Rennes 1.8 and 1.6 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 58.7% for over 2.5 and 81.3% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 4.6 goals a game. Lyon have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Rennes in 4 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 94.7% | 5.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 81.3% | 18.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| 3.5 goals | 36.4% | 63.7% |
| 4.5 goals | 19.3% | 80.7% |
| 5.5 goals | 8.9% | 91.1% |
Team goal lines
81.7%
50.6%
24.3%
74.1%
39.1%
15.4%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 74.1% | 25.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 15.5% | 84.5% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 82.1% | 17.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 24.8% | 75.2% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
61.0%Both Teams to Score58.7%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 58.7% for three or more goals and 81.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Lyon favoured at 46.5%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Lyon to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Lyon 2 · 0 draws · Rennes 3 · 4.6 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lyon vs Rennes?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 58.7% for Lyon vs Rennes.
Will there be a first-half goal in Lyon vs Rennes?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 74.1%.
How often have Lyon gone over 2.5 recently?
Lyon have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Rennes in 4 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 18,267 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.