Ligue 1
Lyon vs 
Le Havre Shots
Result
Settled, final score 1-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 49.6%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 62.2% for over 22.5 to 26.5% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.6%. On the shot count, Lyon are the model’s pick to have more shots at 62.9%, with a level count at 5.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 62.2% | 37.8% |
| 24.5 shots | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| 26.5 shots | 37.4% | 62.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 26.5% | 73.5% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
73.4%
57.2%
40.7%
52.3%
34.1%
20.0%
Shot handicap
| Lyon line | Lyon | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| -2.5 | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| -0.5 | 62.9% | 37.1% |
| +0.5 | 68.8% | 31.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 74.4% | 25.6% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 38.3% | 61.8% |
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Lyon.
In-depth analysis
49.6%Over 24.5 shots57.2%Lyon over 12.5 shots34.1%Le Havre over 12.5 shots62.6%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Lyon over 12.5 shots sits at 57.2% and Le Havre at 34.1%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Lyon vs Le Havre?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 49.6% for Lyon vs Le Havre.
Which team will have more shots in Lyon vs Le Havre?
Before kickoff, the model rated Lyon to take more shots at 62.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.