Ligue 1
Lyon vs 
Le Havre Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 55.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 75.1% for over 2.5 to 20.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.3%. Between the two sides, Le Havre are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.5%, with a level count at 20.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 75.1% | 24.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 55.3% | 44.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 35.7% | 64.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 20.4% | 79.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
51.1%
24.7%
64.9%
38.1%
Card handicap
| Lyon line | Lyon | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14.8% | 85.2% |
| -0.5 | 30.2% | 69.8% |
| +0.5 | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| +1.5 | 70.4% | 29.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 82.3% | 17.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 71.1% | 28.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 58.0% | 42.0% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Lyon vs Le Havre. The model leans toward Le Havre for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
55.3%Over 3.5 cards25.9%Any red card51.1%Lyon over 1.5 cards64.9%Le Havre over 1.5 cards71.1%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Lyon over 1.5 cards sits at 51.1% and Le Havre at 64.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 25.9% (Lyon 11.5%, Le Havre 16.2%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Lyon vs Le Havre?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 55.3% for Lyon vs Le Havre.
Will there be a red card in Lyon vs Le Havre?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 25.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Lyon vs Le Havre?
Before kickoff, the model rated Le Havre to pick up more cards at 49.5%, with a level count at 20.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.