Ligue 1
Lorient vs 
Troyes Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 48.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 69.7% for over 2.5 to 15.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.5%. Head to head on cards, Troyes are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.4%, with a level count at 21.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 69.7% | 30.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 29.3% | 70.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.6% | 84.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
45.9%
20.4%
60.7%
33.7%
Card handicap
| Lorient line | Lorient | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.7% | 86.3% |
| -0.5 | 29.3% | 70.7% |
| +0.5 | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| +1.5 | 71.3% | 28.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 38.2% | 61.8% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Lorient vs Troyes. It tips Troyes for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
48.5%Over 3.5 cards10.7%Any red card45.9%Lorient over 1.5 cards60.7%Troyes over 1.5 cards52.6%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Lorient over 1.5 cards sits at 45.9% and Troyes at 60.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.7% (Lorient 3.4%, Troyes 7.5%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Lorient vs Troyes?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 48.5% for Lorient vs Troyes.
Will there be a red card in Lorient vs Troyes?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 10.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Lorient vs Troyes?
Before kickoff, the model rated Troyes to pick up more cards at 49.4%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.