Celta vs Ath Bilbao: model prediction
La LigaCelta or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time6 of 11 calls right
Our most likely call was Celta at 49.0%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 52.4% and it landed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 73.4% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 74.0% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 51.2% and it missed. We called Yes at 64.8% and it landed. We called Yes at 81.3% and it missed. We called Under 9.5 at 54.1% and it missed (11 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 58.1% and it missed (3 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 56.8% and it missed (25 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 60.4% and it landed (9 shots on target). We called No at 80.2% and it landed.
| Match data | Celta | Ath Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, 1st half | 0 | 2 |
| Goals, 2nd half | 0 | 0 |
| Shots | 8 | 17 |
| Shots, 1st half | 2 | 12 |
| Shots, 2nd half | 6 | 5 |
| Shots on target | 2 | 7 |
| Corners | 4 | 7 |
| Yellow cards | 0 | 3 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 8 | 17 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.20 | 3.13 |
Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Our engine prices Celta at 49% for 30 August 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. The numbers that frame it: • Our number sits above the market's 40% for Celta. The gap itself is information. • Totals sit close to the fence: 48% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 51%. • History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Celta, 1 draws and 2 for Ath Bilbao at 2.8 goals per match. • Recent form reads W2 D2 L2 for Celta against W0 D1 L5 for Ath Bilbao. Discipline says sit it out: trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
49.0%+8.9%
26.4%-3.1%
24.6%-5.9%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Celta 2 · 1 draws · Ath Bilbao 2 · 2.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Celta
Ath BilbaoLeague averages this season: 2.50 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 72.7% | Over 7.5 | 60.4% | Over 8.5 | 47.6% | Over 9.5 | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Celta | 59.0% | Most: Ath Bilbao | 28.9% | ||||
| Celta Over 4.2 | 52.6% | Ath Bilbao Over 4.2 | 30.7% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 77.0% | Over 3.5 | 58.1% | Over 4.5 | 39.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Celta | 34.3% | Most: Ath Bilbao | 45.8% | ||
| Celta Over 1.8 | 56.0% | Ath Bilbao Over 1.8 | 64.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Celta clean sheet | 34.8% |
|---|---|
| Ath Bilbao clean sheet | 22.1% |
| Celta win to nil | 26.5% |
| Ath Bilbao win to nil | 13.8% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 47.6% | draw | 26.7% | away | 25.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 74.3% | 12 | 73.3% | X2 | 52.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 64.9% | away | 35.1% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 51.2% | no | 48.8% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 35.0% | away | 22.1% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 26.7% | away | 13.8% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.9% | home_by_2 | 14.5% | home_by_3plus | 10.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 15.8% | away_by_2 | 7.0% | away_by_3plus | 2.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.3% | 0-1 | 7.5% | 0-2 | 4.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.5% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | 1-1 | 12.7% | 1-2 | 6.4% |
| 1-3 | 2.3% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 8.8% | 2-1 | 9.2% | 2-2 | 4.8% |
| 2-3 | 1.7% | 2-4 | 0.4% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.5% | 3-1 | 4.7% | 3-2 | 2.5% |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.8% | 4-1 | 1.8% | 4-2 | 1.0% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.6% | 5-1 | 0.6% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.6% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.7% | under_0.5 | 8.3% | over_1.5 | 73.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 26.6% | over_2.5 | 47.6% | under_2.5 | 52.4% |
| over_3.5 | 26.0% | under_3.5 | 74.0% | over_4.5 | 12.1% |
| under_4.5 | 87.9% | over_5.5 | 4.8% | under_5.5 | 95.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 77.9% | under_0.5 | 22.1% | over_1.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.0% | over_2.5 | 20.0% | under_2.5 | 80.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 65.0% | under_0.5 | 35.0% | over_1.5 | 28.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 71.7% | over_2.5 | 9.0% | under_2.5 | 91.0% |
most
| home | 47.6% | draw | 26.7% | away | 25.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 10.1% | away_+2.5 | 89.9% | home_-1.5 | 24.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 75.3% | home_-0.5 | 47.6% | away_+0.5 | 52.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 74.3% | away_-0.5 | 25.7% | home_+1.5 | 90.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 9.9% | home_+2.5 | 97.1% | away_-2.5 | 2.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.3% | exact_1 | 18.4% | exact_2 | 25.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.6% | exact_4 | 14.0% | exact_5 | 7.2% |
| exact_6 | 3.1% | exact_7plus | 1.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 36.8% | draw | 44.7% | away | 18.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 64.8% | under_0.5 | 35.2% | over_1.5 | 28.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.0% | over_2.5 | 8.9% | under_2.5 | 91.1% |
btts
| yes | 15.4% | no | 84.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 35.2% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 19.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 6.7% | exact_4plus | 2.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 46.2% | draw | 33.0% | away | 20.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 81.3% | under_0.5 | 18.8% | over_1.5 | 49.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 50.1% | over_2.5 | 23.6% | under_2.5 | 76.4% |
btts
| yes | 29.9% | no | 70.1% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 30.9% | H/D | 4.5% | H/A | 1.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 20.7% | D/D | 14.8% | D/A | 9.3% |
| A/H | 3.1% | A/D | 4.6% | A/A | 10.9% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 70.3% | under_7.5 | 29.7% | over_8.5 | 58.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 41.8% | over_9.5 | 45.9% | under_9.5 | 54.1% |
| over_10.5 | 34.3% | under_10.5 | 65.7% | over_11.5 | 24.4% |
| under_11.5 | 75.6% | over_12.5 | 16.5% | under_12.5 | 83.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 71.6% | under_3.5 | 28.4% | over_4.5 | 55.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 44.1% | over_5.5 | 40.5% | under_5.5 | 59.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 58.7% | under_3.5 | 41.3% | over_4.5 | 41.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.7% | over_5.5 | 26.7% | under_5.5 | 73.3% |
most
| home | 54.1% | draw | 10.9% | away | 35.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.2% | away_+3.5 | 76.9% | home_-1.5 | 42.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 57.1% | home_-0.5 | 54.1% | away_+0.5 | 45.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.0% | away_-0.5 | 35.0% | home_+1.5 | 74.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 25.3% | home_+3.5 | 89.0% | away_-3.5 | 11.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 56.0% | under_22.5 | 44.0% | over_24.5 | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 56.8% | over_26.5 | 31.4% | under_26.5 | 68.6% |
| over_28.5 | 21.5% | under_28.5 | 78.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 67.6% | under_10.5 | 32.4% | over_12.5 | 50.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 49.7% | over_14.5 | 34.1% | under_14.5 | 65.9% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 50.2% | under_10.5 | 49.8% | over_12.5 | 32.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 67.7% | over_14.5 | 18.6% | under_14.5 | 81.4% |
most
| home | 59.5% | draw | 6.2% | away | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 34.0% | away_+4.5 | 66.1% | home_-2.5 | 46.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 53.5% | home_-0.5 | 59.5% | away_+0.5 | 40.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.8% | away_-0.5 | 34.3% | home_+2.5 | 76.9% |
| away_-2.5 | 23.2% | home_+4.5 | 85.6% | away_-4.5 | 14.4% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 72.7% | under_6.5 | 27.3% | over_7.5 | 60.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 39.6% | over_8.5 | 47.6% | under_8.5 | 52.4% |
| over_9.5 | 35.6% | under_9.5 | 64.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 69.5% | under_3.5 | 30.5% | over_4.5 | 52.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 47.4% | over_5.5 | 36.5% | under_5.5 | 63.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 48.7% | under_3.5 | 51.3% | over_4.5 | 30.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 69.3% | over_5.5 | 17.5% | under_5.5 | 82.5% |
most
| home | 59.0% | draw | 12.2% | away | 28.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 33.5% | away_+2.5 | 66.5% | home_-0.5 | 59.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 41.1% | home_+0.5 | 71.1% | away_-0.5 | 28.9% |
| home_+2.5 | 88.7% | away_-2.5 | 11.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 77.0% | under_2.5 | 23.0% | over_3.5 | 58.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 41.9% | over_4.5 | 39.0% | under_4.5 | 61.0% |
| over_5.5 | 23.4% | under_5.5 | 76.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 56.0% | under_1.5 | 44.0% | over_2.5 | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 70.4% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 63.9% | under_1.5 | 36.1% | over_2.5 | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 62.3% |
most
| home | 34.3% | draw | 20.0% | away | 45.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 18.2% | away_+1.5 | 81.8% | home_-0.5 | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 65.7% | home_+0.5 | 54.2% | away_-0.5 | 45.8% |
| home_+1.5 | 72.8% | away_-1.5 | 27.2% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 73.7% | under_20.5 | 26.3% | over_22.5 | 60.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 39.6% | over_24.5 | 46.3% | under_24.5 | 53.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 64.8% | under_9.5 | 35.2% | over_11.5 | 43.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 56.2% | over_13.5 | 25.7% | under_13.5 | 74.3% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 79.9% | under_9.5 | 20.1% | over_11.5 | 62.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 37.5% | over_13.5 | 43.5% | under_13.5 | 56.6% |
most
| home | 33.5% | draw | 6.8% | away | 59.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 16.8% | away_+3.5 | 83.2% | home_-0.5 | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 66.5% | home_+2.5 | 54.5% | away_-2.5 | 45.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 19.8% | no | 80.2% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.5% | no | 94.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 15.1% | no | 84.9% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Celta predictions · Ath Bilbao predictions · La Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Explore this match
Markets