Pro League
Lommel SK vs 
Westerlo Cards
Result
Settled, final score 4-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 49.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 70.4% for over 2.5 to 16.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.5%. Head to head on cards, Westerlo are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.8%, with a level count at 21.4%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.4% | 29.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.5% | 83.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
49.3%
23.3%
58.9%
32.1%
Card handicap
| Lommel SK line | Lommel SK | Westerlo |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.2% | 83.8% |
| -0.5 | 32.8% | 67.2% |
| +0.5 | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| +1.5 | 74.0% | 26.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 59.8% | 40.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 45.2% | 54.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 31.7% | 68.3% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Lommel SK vs Westerlo. It tips Westerlo for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
49.5%Over 3.5 cards12.2%Any red card49.3%Lommel SK over 1.5 cards58.9%Westerlo over 1.5 cards45.2%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Lommel SK over 1.5 cards sits at 49.3% and Westerlo at 58.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.2% (Lommel SK 4.4%, Westerlo 8.2%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Lommel SK vs Westerlo?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 49.5% for Lommel SK vs Westerlo.
Will there be a red card in Lommel SK vs Westerlo?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 12.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Lommel SK vs Westerlo?
Before kickoff, the model rated Westerlo to pick up more cards at 45.8%, with a level count at 21.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Pro League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.