Lommel SK vs Westerlo: model prediction
Pro LeagueOver 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Draw or Westerlo
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Westerlo at 40.5%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 54.2% and it landed (4 goals). We called Yes at 58.1% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Expect a tight one: the model splits Lommel SK and Westerlo almost evenly, Westerlo marginally on top at 40%. Our number sits above the market's 36% for Westerlo. The gap itself is information. Totals sit close to the fence: 54% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 58%. Recent form reads W0 D1 L1 for Lommel SK against W1 D0 L5 for Westerlo. Lommel SK are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.038 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
33.4%-3.1%
26.1%-0.9%
40.5%+4.0%
conservative EV -0.038 <= 0
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Lommel SK
WesterloBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 76.5% | Over 7.5 | 65.3% | Over 8.5 | 53.3% | Over 9.5 | 41.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Lommel SK | 47.5% | Most: Westerlo | 40.3% | ||||
| Lommel SK Over 4.2 | 48.6% | Westerlo Over 4.2 | 43.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 70.4% | Over 3.5 | 49.5% | Over 4.5 | 30.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Lommel SK | 32.8% | Most: Westerlo | 45.8% | ||
| Lommel SK Over 1.8 | 49.3% | Westerlo Over 1.8 | 58.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Lommel SK clean sheet | 22.2% |
|---|---|
| Westerlo clean sheet | 25.9% |
| Lommel SK win to nil | 15.8% |
| Westerlo win to nil | 19.5% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 33.4% | draw | 26.1% | away | 40.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 59.6% | 12 | 73.9% | X2 | 66.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 45.3% | away | 54.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 58.1% | no | 41.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 22.3% | away | 26.0% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 15.9% | away | 19.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 18.3% | home_by_2 | 9.8% | home_by_3plus | 5.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 20.4% | away_by_2 | 12.2% | away_by_3plus | 7.8% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.4% | 0-1 | 8.1% | 0-2 | 6.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.3% | 0-4 | 1.2% | 0-5 | 0.4% |
| 1-0 | 7.2% | 1-1 | 12.3% | 1-2 | 8.8% |
| 1-3 | 4.4% | 1-4 | 1.7% | 1-5 | 0.5% |
| 2-0 | 5.3% | 2-1 | 7.9% | 2-2 | 5.9% |
| 2-3 | 3.0% | 2-4 | 1.1% | 2-5 | 0.3% |
| 3-0 | 2.4% | 3-1 | 3.5% | 3-2 | 2.7% |
| 3-3 | 1.3% | 3-4 | 0.5% | 3-5 | 0.2% |
| 4-0 | 0.8% | 4-1 | 1.2% | 4-2 | 0.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.3% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.7% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.6% | under_0.5 | 6.4% | over_1.5 | 78.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 21.7% | over_2.5 | 54.2% | under_2.5 | 45.8% |
| over_3.5 | 31.9% | under_3.5 | 68.1% | over_4.5 | 16.0% |
| under_4.5 | 84.0% | over_5.5 | 6.9% | under_5.5 | 93.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.7% | even | 51.3% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 74.0% | under_0.5 | 26.0% | over_1.5 | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.1% | over_2.5 | 15.4% | under_2.5 | 84.6% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 77.7% | under_0.5 | 22.3% | over_1.5 | 44.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.7% | over_2.5 | 19.2% | under_2.5 | 80.8% |
most
| home | 33.4% | draw | 26.1% | away | 40.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 5.4% | away_+2.5 | 94.6% | home_-1.5 | 15.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 84.8% | home_-0.5 | 33.4% | away_+0.5 | 66.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 59.6% | away_-0.5 | 40.5% | home_+1.5 | 80.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 20.0% | home_+2.5 | 92.2% | away_-2.5 | 7.8% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.4% | exact_1 | 15.3% | exact_2 | 24.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.3% | exact_4 | 15.9% | exact_5 | 9.0% |
| exact_6 | 4.3% | exact_7plus | 2.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 40.6% | draw | 40.5% | away | 19.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 70.6% | under_0.5 | 29.4% | over_1.5 | 34.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.4% | over_2.5 | 12.6% | under_2.5 | 87.4% |
btts
| yes | 19.4% | no | 80.7% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 29.4% | exact_1 | 36.0% | exact_2 | 22.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 9.0% | exact_4plus | 3.6% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 29.5% | draw | 38.6% | away | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.9% | under_0.5 | 25.2% | over_1.5 | 40.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.9% | over_2.5 | 16.2% | under_2.5 | 83.8% |
btts
| yes | 24.8% | no | 75.2% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 30.9% | H/D | 6.9% | H/A | 2.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 12.0% | D/D | 15.6% | D/A | 12.9% |
| A/H | 1.3% | A/D | 3.5% | A/A | 14.2% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 80.4% | under_7.5 | 19.6% | over_8.5 | 70.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 29.6% | over_9.5 | 59.0% | under_9.5 | 41.0% |
| over_10.5 | 47.2% | under_10.5 | 52.8% | over_11.5 | 36.1% |
| under_11.5 | 63.9% | over_12.5 | 26.3% | under_12.5 | 73.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 77.7% | under_3.5 | 22.3% | over_4.5 | 63.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 36.6% | over_5.5 | 48.2% | under_5.5 | 51.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 67.9% | under_3.5 | 32.1% | over_4.5 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 48.7% | over_5.5 | 35.8% | under_5.5 | 64.2% |
most
| home | 53.0% | draw | 10.3% | away | 36.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.8% | away_+3.5 | 76.2% | home_-1.5 | 42.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 57.5% | home_-0.5 | 53.0% | away_+0.5 | 47.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.3% | away_-0.5 | 36.7% | home_+1.5 | 72.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 27.2% | home_+3.5 | 87.1% | away_-3.5 | 12.9% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 71.5% | under_22.5 | 28.5% | over_24.5 | 60.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 39.6% | over_26.5 | 48.8% | under_26.5 | 51.2% |
| over_28.5 | 37.4% | under_28.5 | 62.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 76.2% | under_10.5 | 23.8% | over_12.5 | 61.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 38.6% | over_14.5 | 45.8% | under_14.5 | 54.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 62.6% | under_10.5 | 37.4% | over_12.5 | 45.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 54.5% | over_14.5 | 30.3% | under_14.5 | 69.8% |
most
| home | 58.3% | draw | 5.7% | away | 36.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 35.1% | away_+4.5 | 64.9% | home_-2.5 | 46.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 53.5% | home_-0.5 | 58.3% | away_+0.5 | 41.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.0% | away_-0.5 | 36.0% | home_+2.5 | 74.3% |
| away_-2.5 | 25.7% | home_+4.5 | 82.9% | away_-4.5 | 17.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 76.5% | under_6.5 | 23.5% | over_7.5 | 65.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 34.7% | over_8.5 | 53.3% | under_8.5 | 46.7% |
| over_9.5 | 41.6% | under_9.5 | 58.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 65.5% | under_3.5 | 34.5% | over_4.5 | 48.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.4% | over_5.5 | 33.2% | under_5.5 | 66.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.7% | under_3.5 | 39.3% | over_4.5 | 43.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.7% | over_5.5 | 28.4% | under_5.5 | 71.6% |
most
| home | 47.5% | draw | 12.2% | away | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 25.0% | away_+2.5 | 75.0% | home_-0.5 | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 52.5% | home_+0.5 | 59.7% | away_-0.5 | 40.3% |
| home_+2.5 | 80.5% | away_-2.5 | 19.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 70.4% | under_2.5 | 29.6% | over_3.5 | 49.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 50.5% | over_4.5 | 30.4% | under_4.5 | 69.6% |
| over_5.5 | 16.5% | under_5.5 | 83.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 49.3% | under_1.5 | 50.7% | over_2.5 | 23.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 76.7% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 58.9% | under_1.5 | 41.1% | over_2.5 | 32.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 67.9% |
most
| home | 32.8% | draw | 21.4% | away | 45.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 16.2% | away_+1.5 | 83.8% | home_-0.5 | 32.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 67.2% | home_+0.5 | 54.2% | away_-0.5 | 45.8% |
| home_+1.5 | 74.0% | away_-1.5 | 26.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 59.8% | under_20.5 | 40.2% | over_22.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 54.8% | over_24.5 | 31.7% | under_24.5 | 68.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 60.8% | under_9.5 | 39.2% | over_11.5 | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 60.0% | over_13.5 | 22.9% | under_13.5 | 77.1% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 65.6% | under_9.5 | 34.4% | over_11.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 54.8% | over_13.5 | 27.2% | under_13.5 | 72.8% |
most
| home | 42.7% | draw | 7.4% | away | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.9% | away_+3.5 | 77.1% | home_-0.5 | 42.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 57.3% | home_+2.5 | 64.5% | away_-2.5 | 35.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 12.2% | no | 87.8% |
|---|
home
| yes | 4.4% | no | 95.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 8.2% | no | 91.8% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Lommel SK predictions · Westerlo predictions · Pro League
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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