ChampionshipLincoln vs 
Southampton Shots
Result
We called Over 24.5 at 54.2% and it landed (35 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 57.8% and it landed (9 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 54.2%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 66.4% for over 22.5 to 30.7% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.2%. Head to head on shots, Lincoln are the model’s pick to have more shots at 60.9%, with a level count at 5.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 66.4% | 33.6% |
| 24.5 shots | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| 26.5 shots | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| 28.5 shots | 30.7% | 69.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
74.8%
58.9%
42.5%
57.1%
38.9%
23.9%
Shot handicap
| Lincoln line | Lincoln | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| -2.5 | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| -0.5 | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| +0.5 | 66.8% | 33.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 70.2% | 29.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 57.8% | 42.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 33.5% | 66.5% |
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Lincoln.
In-depth analysis
54.2%Over 24.5 shots58.9%Lincoln over 12.5 shots38.9%Southampton over 12.5 shots57.8%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Lincoln over 12.5 shots sits at 58.9% and Southampton at 38.9%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Lincoln vs Southampton?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 54.2% for Lincoln vs Southampton.
Which team will have more shots in Lincoln vs Southampton?
Before kickoff, the model rated Lincoln to take more shots at 60.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.