Lincoln vs Southampton prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Lincoln vs Southampton: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Championship
Lincoln

LLWD

Full time1-1Sat, 5 Sep 202612:30UK
Southampton

WLWWD

Model’s top convictions

81%

Over 1.5 goals

80%

Draw or Southampton

67%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time9 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Lincoln 1-1 Southampton
✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Southampton at 57.7%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 58.4% and it missed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 81.1% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 63.9% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 56.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 70.8% and it landed. We called Yes at 78.1% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 58.5% and it landed (10 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 54.3% and it missed (3 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 54.2% and it landed (35 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 57.8% and it landed (9 shots on target). We called No at 90.0% and it landed.

Match data Lincoln Southampton
Goals, 1st half 0 1
Goals, 2nd half 1 0
Shots 19 16
Shots on target 5 4
Corners 4 6
Yellow cards 3 0
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 14 10

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
SouthamptonWin probability
57.7%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals81.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.23
Draw or Southampton80.4%High probabilityPays @ 1.24
Over 8.5 corners67.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.49

Model read

▾

"58% on Southampton is a measurement, not a promise." The numbers leave little room for romance here: Southampton at 58% against Lincoln, Championship, 5 September 2026. Our number sits above the market's 54% for Southampton. The gap itself is information. Totals sit close to the fence: 58% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 57%. Recent form reads W1 D1 L2 for Lincoln against W3 D2 L1 for Southampton. As a promoted side, Lincoln carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.016 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners46.1%@ 2.17
Lincoln or draw42.4%@ 2.36
Over 11.5 corners36.4%@ 2.75
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals58.4%@ 1.71
Both teams to score56.9%@ 1.76
Over 9.5 corners56.5%@ 1.77
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.6%@ 9.43
1-2 correct score9.9%@ 10.08
0-2 correct score9.3%@ 10.78

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Lincoln

19.7%-2.0%

Draw

22.7%-1.5%

Southampton

57.7%+3.6%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.016 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.581.1%

High probability

Over 2.558.4%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes56.9%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.567.0%

Strong chance

Over 9.556.5%

Good chance

Over 10.546.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.536.4%

Toss-up

Most cornersLincoln53.4%Southampton36.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.566.4%

Strong chance

Over 24.554.2%

Good chance

Over 26.542.0%

Toss-up

Over 28.530.7%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.581.1%2.558.4%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.581.1%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

LincolnLLWD
SouthamptonWLWWD

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

LincolnSouthampton
League position#18 of 24#4 of 24
Record W-D-L1-1-22-1-1
Current streakD1D1
Record, home vs away0-1-10-1-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.94 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 67% · BTTS in 73%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Lincoln win4.205.08
Draw3.804.41
Southampton win1.761.73
Over 2.5 goals1.731.71
Under 2.5 goals2.102.40

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Lincoln win5.08
Draw4.42
Southampton win1.73
Both teams to score1.76

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.23
Over 2.5 goals1.71
Over 3.5 goals2.77
Lincoln most5.08
Southampton most1.73

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.25
Over 8.5 corners1.43
Over 9.5 corners1.71
Over 10.5 corners2.14
Lincoln most1.87
Southampton most2.77

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.34
Over 3.5 cards1.84
Over 4.5 cards2.87
Over 5.5 cards5.08
Lincoln most2.66
Southampton most2.42

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.42
Over 7.5 SoT1.73
Over 8.5 SoT2.22
Over 9.5 SoT2.99
Lincoln most2.28
Southampton most2.32

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.51
Over 24.5 shots1.84
Over 26.5 shots2.38
Over 28.5 shots3.26
Lincoln most1.64
Southampton most3.01

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.59
Over 22.5 fouls2.12
Over 24.5 fouls3.08
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 70.2% Over 7.5 57.8% Over 8.5 45.1% Over 9.5 33.5%
Most: Lincoln 43.9% Most: Southampton 43.2%
Lincoln Over 4.2 40.4% Southampton Over 4.2 39.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 74.4% Over 3.5 54.3% Over 4.5 34.8%
Most: Lincoln 37.6% Most: Southampton 41.4%
Lincoln Over 1.8 56.4% Southampton Over 1.8 59.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Lincoln clean sheet 14.0%
Southampton clean sheet 33.8%
Lincoln win to nil 8.7%
Southampton win to nil 28.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 19.7% draw 22.7% away 57.7%
double_chance
1X 42.3% 12 77.4% X2 80.3%
dnb
home 25.4% away 74.6%
btts
yes 56.9% no 43.1%
clean_sheet
home 14.0% away 34.3%
win_to_nil
home 8.7% away 29.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 12.3% home_by_2 5.3% home_by_3plus 2.1%
away_by_1 23.0% away_by_2 17.8% away_by_3plus 16.9%
correct_score
0-0 5.3% 0-1 9.0% 0-2 9.3%
0-3 6.1% 0-4 3.0% 0-5 1.2%
1-0 4.7% 1-1 10.6% 1-2 9.9%
1-3 6.5% 1-4 3.2% 1-5 1.3%
2-0 2.8% 2-1 5.4% 2-2 5.3%
2-3 3.5% 2-4 1.7% 2-5 0.7%
3-0 1.0% 3-1 1.9% 3-2 1.9%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.6% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.3% 4-1 0.5% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.1% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.7% under_0.5 5.3% over_1.5 81.1%
under_1.5 18.9% over_2.5 58.4% under_2.5 41.6%
over_3.5 36.1% under_3.5 63.9% over_4.5 19.1%
under_4.5 80.9% over_5.5 8.8% under_5.5 91.3%
odd_even
odd 48.9% even 51.1%
team_home
over_0.5 65.7% under_0.5 34.3% over_1.5 29.0%
under_1.5 71.0% over_2.5 9.3% under_2.5 90.7%
team_away
over_0.5 86.0% under_0.5 14.0% over_1.5 58.4%
under_1.5 41.6% over_2.5 31.4% under_2.5 68.6%
most
home 19.7% draw 22.7% away 57.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 2.1% away_+2.5 97.9% home_-1.5 7.4%
away_+1.5 92.6% home_-0.5 19.7% away_+0.5 80.3%
home_+0.5 42.3% away_-0.5 57.7% home_+1.5 65.4%
away_-1.5 34.7% home_+2.5 83.1% away_-2.5 16.9%
total_exact
exact_0 5.3% exact_1 13.6% exact_2 22.7%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 17.0% exact_5 10.3%
exact_6 5.2% exact_7plus 3.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 26.3% draw 41.3% away 32.4%
total
over_0.5 70.8% under_0.5 29.2% over_1.5 34.9%
under_1.5 65.1% over_2.5 12.7% under_2.5 87.3%
btts
yes 21.0% no 79.0%
total_exact
exact_0 29.2% exact_1 35.9% exact_2 22.1%
exact_3 9.1% exact_4plus 3.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 19.3% draw 34.9% away 45.8%
total
over_0.5 78.1% under_0.5 21.9% over_1.5 44.9%
under_1.5 55.1% over_2.5 19.6% under_2.5 80.4%
btts
yes 25.9% no 74.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 16.2% H/D 6.3% H/A 3.9%
D/H 8.0% D/D 14.4% D/A 18.9%
A/H 1.1% A/D 3.8% A/A 27.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 79.9% under_7.5 20.1% over_8.5 69.8%
under_8.5 30.2% over_9.5 58.5% under_9.5 41.6%
over_10.5 46.8% under_10.5 53.2% over_11.5 35.8%
under_11.5 64.2% over_12.5 26.2% under_12.5 73.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.6% under_3.5 22.4% over_4.5 63.3%
under_4.5 36.7% over_5.5 48.3% under_5.5 51.7%
team_away
over_3.5 67.3% under_3.5 32.8% over_4.5 50.6%
under_4.5 49.4% over_5.5 35.2% under_5.5 64.8%
most
home 53.5% draw 10.4% away 36.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.1% away_+3.5 75.9% home_-1.5 42.9%
away_+1.5 57.1% home_-0.5 53.5% away_+0.5 46.5%
home_+0.5 63.8% away_-0.5 36.2% home_+1.5 73.3%
away_-1.5 26.8% home_+3.5 87.5% away_-3.5 12.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 66.4% under_22.5 33.6% over_24.5 54.2%
under_24.5 45.8% over_26.5 42.0% under_26.5 58.0%
over_28.5 30.7% under_28.5 69.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.8% under_10.5 25.2% over_12.5 58.9%
under_12.5 41.1% over_14.5 42.5% under_14.5 57.5%
team_away
over_10.5 57.1% under_10.5 43.0% over_12.5 38.9%
under_12.5 61.1% over_14.5 23.9% under_14.5 76.1%
most
home 60.9% draw 5.9% away 33.2%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.2% away_+4.5 63.8% home_-2.5 48.5%
away_+2.5 51.5% home_-0.5 60.9% away_+0.5 39.1%
home_+0.5 66.8% away_-0.5 33.2% home_+2.5 77.3%
away_-2.5 22.7% home_+4.5 85.6% away_-4.5 14.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 70.2% under_6.5 29.8% over_7.5 57.8%
under_7.5 42.3% over_8.5 45.1% under_8.5 54.9%
over_9.5 33.5% under_9.5 66.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 58.1% under_3.5 41.9% over_4.5 40.4%
under_4.5 59.6% over_5.5 25.7% under_5.5 74.3%
team_away
over_3.5 57.6% under_3.5 42.4% over_4.5 39.9%
under_4.5 60.1% over_5.5 25.3% under_5.5 74.7%
most
home 43.9% draw 13.0% away 43.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 21.2% away_+2.5 78.8% home_-0.5 43.9%
away_+0.5 56.1% home_+0.5 56.8% away_-0.5 43.2%
home_+2.5 79.3% away_-2.5 20.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 74.4% under_2.5 25.6% over_3.5 54.3%
under_3.5 45.7% over_4.5 34.8% under_4.5 65.2%
over_5.5 19.7% under_5.5 80.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 56.4% under_1.5 43.6% over_2.5 29.4%
under_2.5 70.6%
team_away
over_1.5 59.1% under_1.5 40.9% over_2.5 32.1%
under_2.5 67.9%
most
home 37.6% draw 21.0% away 41.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.0% away_+1.5 80.0% home_-0.5 37.6%
away_+0.5 62.4% home_+0.5 58.6% away_-0.5 41.4%
home_+1.5 77.1% away_-1.5 22.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 62.8% under_20.5 37.2% over_22.5 47.2%
under_22.5 52.8% over_24.5 32.5% under_24.5 67.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 69.3% under_9.5 30.7% over_11.5 47.8%
under_11.5 52.2% over_13.5 28.1% under_13.5 71.9%
team_away
over_9.5 62.6% under_9.5 37.4% over_11.5 40.3%
under_11.5 59.7% over_13.5 21.9% under_13.5 78.1%
most
home 51.3% draw 7.8% away 40.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.8% away_+3.5 71.2% home_-0.5 51.3%
away_+0.5 48.7% home_+2.5 73.5% away_-2.5 26.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 10.1% no 90.0%
home
yes 3.7% no 96.3%
away
yes 6.6% no 93.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Lincoln predictions · Southampton predictions · Championship

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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