Rizespor vs Alanyaspor prediction & probabilities (2026-09-07)

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Rizespor vs Alanyaspor: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Süper Lig
Rizespor

LDWLW

Full time0-1Mon, 7 Sep 202618:00UK
Alanyaspor

WLDWL

Model’s top convictions

75%

Over 1.5 goals

70%

Rizespor or draw

57%

Draw or Alanyaspor

Full time5 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Rizespor 0-1 Alanyaspor
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
5 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Rizespor at 43.1%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 50.7% and it landed (1 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 74.8% and it missed (1 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 72.6% and it landed (1 goals). We called Yes at 53.9% and it missed. We called Yes at 65.6% and it missed. We called Yes at 79.0% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 59.3% and it missed (15 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 62.4% and it missed (2 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 53.3% and it landed (30 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 60.9% and it missed (7 shots on target). We called No at 90.0% and it landed.

Match data Rizespor Alanyaspor
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 0 1
Shots 21 9
Shots on target 5 2
Corners 8 7
Yellow cards 1 1
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 8 15

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
RizesporWin probability
43.1%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals74.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.34
Rizespor or draw70.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.43
Draw or Alanyaspor56.9%Good chancePays @ 1.76

Model read

▾

Rizespor versus Alanyaspor on 7 September 2026 tilts towards Rizespor in our numbers (43%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Rizespor higher (52%) than our model does. No strong lean on goals (49% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Rizespor, 2 draws and 2 for Alanyaspor at 2.0 goals per match. The run in: Rizespor arrive W3 D1 L2, Alanyaspor W2 D2 L2. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.21).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners40.6%@ 2.46
Over 10.5 corners31.0%@ 3.23
Medium risk

Both teams to score53.9%@ 1.86
Over 8.5 corners51.4%@ 1.95
Under 2.5 goals50.7%@ 1.97
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.9%@ 7.76
1-0 correct score9.8%@ 10.22
2-1 correct score9.0%@ 11.12

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Rizespor

43.1%-8.4%

Draw

27.0%-0.1%

Alanyaspor

29.9%+8.5%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.21)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.574.7%

Strong chance

Over 2.549.3%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes53.9%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.551.4%

Good chance

Over 9.540.6%

Toss-up

Over 10.531.0%

Toss-up

Over 11.522.8%

Low chance

Most cornersRizespor50.7%Alanyaspor37.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.565.3%

Strong chance

Over 24.553.3%

Good chance

Over 26.541.4%

Toss-up

Over 28.530.5%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.574.7%2.549.3%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.574.7%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

RizesporLDWLW
AlanyasporWLDWL

Last 5 meetings: Rizespor 1 · 2 draws · Alanyaspor 2 · 2.0 goals/game.

2026-01-25Rizespor 1-1 Alanyaspor
2025-08-16Alanyaspor 0-0 Rizespor
2025-03-02Rizespor 3-1 Alanyaspor
2024-09-28Alanyaspor 1-0 Rizespor
2024-01-20Alanyaspor 2-1 Rizespor

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

RizesporAlanyaspor
League position#7 of 18#12 of 18
Record W-D-L2-0-11-1-1
Current streakW1L1
Record, home vs away0-0-10-1-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.81 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 48% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Rizespor win1.812.32
Draw3.303.70
Alanyaspor win4.103.34
Over 2.5 goals2.002.03
Under 2.5 goals1.801.97

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Rizespor win2.32
Draw3.70
Alanyaspor win3.34
Both teams to score1.86

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.34
Over 2.5 goals2.03
Over 3.5 goals3.65
Rizespor most2.32
Alanyaspor most3.34

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.53
Over 8.5 corners1.89
Over 9.5 corners2.45
Over 10.5 corners3.36
Rizespor most1.97
Alanyaspor most2.63

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.24
Over 3.5 cards1.60
Over 4.5 cards2.32
Over 5.5 cards3.79
Rizespor most2.54
Alanyaspor most2.45

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.37
Over 7.5 SoT1.64
Over 8.5 SoT2.06
Over 9.5 SoT2.72
Rizespor most1.75
Alanyaspor most3.24

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.53
Over 24.5 shots1.87
Over 26.5 shots2.41
Over 28.5 shots3.28
Rizespor most1.65
Alanyaspor most2.99

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.14
Over 22.5 fouls1.28
Over 24.5 fouls1.53
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 72.8% Over 7.5 60.9% Over 8.5 48.5% Over 9.5 36.8%
Most: Rizespor 57.1% Most: Alanyaspor 30.8%
Rizespor Over 4.2 51.8% Alanyaspor Over 4.2 32.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 80.3% Over 3.5 62.4% Over 4.5 43.1%
Most: Rizespor 39.3% Most: Alanyaspor 40.8%
Rizespor Over 1.8 62.9% Alanyaspor Over 1.8 63.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Rizespor clean sheet 30.6%
Alanyaspor clean sheet 23.1%
Rizespor win to nil 22.9%
Alanyaspor win to nil 15.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 43.1% draw 27.0% away 29.9%
double_chance
1X 70.1% 12 73.0% X2 56.9%
dnb
home 59.0% away 41.0%
btts
yes 53.9% no 46.1%
clean_sheet
home 30.7% away 23.1%
win_to_nil
home 23.0% away 15.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.8% home_by_2 13.1% home_by_3plus 8.2%
away_by_1 17.4% away_by_2 8.5% away_by_3plus 4.0%
correct_score
0-0 7.7% 0-1 7.8% 0-2 5.0%
0-3 2.0% 0-4 0.6% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 9.8% 1-1 12.9% 1-2 7.2%
1-3 2.9% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.6% 2-1 9.0% 2-2 5.3%
2-3 2.1% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 3.7% 3-1 4.4% 3-2 2.6%
3-3 1.0% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.4% 4-1 1.6% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.3% under_0.5 7.7% over_1.5 74.8%
under_1.5 25.3% over_2.5 49.3% under_2.5 50.7%
over_3.5 27.4% under_3.5 72.6% over_4.5 12.9%
under_4.5 87.1% over_5.5 5.3% under_5.5 94.8%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 76.9% under_0.5 23.1% over_1.5 43.0%
under_1.5 57.0% over_2.5 18.3% under_2.5 81.8%
team_away
over_0.5 69.3% under_0.5 30.7% over_1.5 33.0%
under_1.5 67.0% over_2.5 11.6% under_2.5 88.4%
most
home 43.1% draw 27.0% away 29.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.2% away_+2.5 91.8% home_-1.5 21.3%
away_+1.5 78.7% home_-0.5 43.1% away_+0.5 56.9%
home_+0.5 70.1% away_-0.5 29.9% home_+1.5 87.5%
away_-1.5 12.5% home_+2.5 96.0% away_-2.5 4.0%
total_exact
exact_0 7.7% exact_1 17.5% exact_2 25.5%
exact_3 21.9% exact_4 14.5% exact_5 7.7%
exact_6 3.4% exact_7plus 1.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 28.4% draw 44.9% away 26.7%
total
over_0.5 65.6% under_0.5 34.4% over_1.5 28.9%
under_1.5 71.1% over_2.5 9.3% under_2.5 90.7%
btts
yes 17.1% no 82.9%
total_exact
exact_0 34.4% exact_1 36.7% exact_2 19.6%
exact_3 7.0% exact_4plus 2.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 39.1% draw 35.4% away 25.4%
total
over_0.5 79.0% under_0.5 21.0% over_1.5 46.3%
under_1.5 53.7% over_2.5 20.7% under_2.5 79.3%
btts
yes 28.7% no 71.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 22.5% H/D 4.3% H/A 1.6%
D/H 17.6% D/D 15.9% D/A 11.4%
A/H 3.1% A/D 5.7% A/A 17.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 65.5% under_7.5 34.5% over_8.5 53.0%
under_8.5 47.0% over_9.5 40.8% under_9.5 59.3%
over_10.5 29.8% under_10.5 70.2% over_11.5 20.7%
under_11.5 79.3% over_12.5 13.7% under_12.5 86.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 66.4% under_3.5 33.6% over_4.5 50.1%
under_4.5 49.9% over_5.5 35.1% under_5.5 65.0%
team_away
over_3.5 57.4% under_3.5 42.6% over_4.5 40.3%
under_4.5 59.7% over_5.5 26.1% under_5.5 73.9%
most
home 50.8% draw 11.2% away 38.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.5% away_+3.5 79.5% home_-1.5 39.6%
away_+1.5 60.4% home_-0.5 50.8% away_+0.5 49.2%
home_+0.5 62.0% away_-0.5 38.0% home_+1.5 72.2%
away_-1.5 27.8% home_+3.5 87.5% away_-3.5 12.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 65.3% under_22.5 34.7% over_24.5 53.3%
under_24.5 46.7% over_26.5 41.4% under_26.5 58.6%
over_28.5 30.5% under_28.5 69.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.8% under_10.5 26.2% over_12.5 58.2%
under_12.5 41.8% over_14.5 42.3% under_14.5 57.7%
team_away
over_10.5 56.1% under_10.5 44.0% over_12.5 38.5%
under_12.5 61.6% over_14.5 23.9% under_14.5 76.1%
most
home 60.8% draw 5.8% away 33.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.6% away_+4.5 63.4% home_-2.5 48.6%
away_+2.5 51.4% home_-0.5 60.8% away_+0.5 39.2%
home_+0.5 66.5% away_-0.5 33.5% home_+2.5 76.9%
away_-2.5 23.1% home_+4.5 85.1% away_-4.5 14.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 72.9% under_6.5 27.2% over_7.5 60.9%
under_7.5 39.1% over_8.5 48.5% under_8.5 51.5%
over_9.5 36.8% under_9.5 63.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.4% under_3.5 31.6% over_4.5 51.8%
under_4.5 48.2% over_5.5 36.3% under_5.5 63.7%
team_away
over_3.5 50.3% under_3.5 49.7% over_4.5 32.7%
under_4.5 67.3% over_5.5 19.4% under_5.5 80.6%
most
home 57.1% draw 12.0% away 30.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 32.6% away_+2.5 67.4% home_-0.5 57.1%
away_+0.5 42.9% home_+0.5 69.2% away_-0.5 30.9%
home_+2.5 87.2% away_-2.5 12.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 80.3% under_2.5 19.7% over_3.5 62.4%
under_3.5 37.6% over_4.5 43.1% under_4.5 56.9%
over_5.5 26.4% under_5.5 73.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 62.9% under_1.5 37.1% over_2.5 35.9%
under_2.5 64.1%
team_away
over_1.5 63.9% under_1.5 36.1% over_2.5 37.0%
under_2.5 63.0%
most
home 39.3% draw 19.9% away 40.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 22.1% away_+1.5 77.9% home_-0.5 39.3%
away_+0.5 60.7% home_+0.5 59.2% away_-0.5 40.8%
home_+1.5 76.7% away_-1.5 23.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 87.7% under_20.5 12.3% over_22.5 78.0%
under_22.5 22.0% over_24.5 65.3% under_24.5 34.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 86.3% under_9.5 13.7% over_11.5 70.5%
under_11.5 29.5% over_13.5 50.8% under_13.5 49.2%
team_away
over_9.5 82.1% under_9.5 17.9% over_11.5 64.0%
under_11.5 36.0% over_13.5 43.5% under_13.5 56.5%
most
home 51.5% draw 7.2% away 41.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 30.6% away_+3.5 69.4% home_-0.5 51.5%
away_+0.5 48.5% home_+2.5 72.1% away_-2.5 27.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 10.0% no 90.0%
home
yes 6.9% no 93.1%
away
yes 3.2% no 96.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Rizespor predictions · Alanyaspor predictions · Süper Lig

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Markets

More on this match

Süper LigRizesporAlanyasporTrack record