Ligue 1
Lille vs 
Paris SG Shots
Result
Settled, final score 2-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 48.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 61.3% for over 22.5 to 25.8% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.7%. Between the two sides, Lille are the model’s pick to have more shots at 57.1%, with a level count at 6.2%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 61.3% | 38.7% |
| 24.5 shots | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| 28.5 shots | 25.8% | 74.2% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
69.6%
52.5%
36.1%
56.0%
37.8%
22.9%
Shot handicap
| Lille line | Lille | Paris SG |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 32.1% | 67.9% |
| -2.5 | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| -0.5 | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| +0.5 | 63.3% | 36.7% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 76.1% | 23.9% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 40.5% | 59.5% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Lille.
In-depth analysis
48.7%Over 24.5 shots52.5%Lille over 12.5 shots37.8%Paris SG over 12.5 shots64.7%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Lille over 12.5 shots sits at 52.5% and Paris SG at 37.8%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Lille vs Paris SG?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 48.7% for Lille vs Paris SG.
Which team will have more shots in Lille vs Paris SG?
Before kickoff, the model rated Lille to take more shots at 57.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.