Ligue 1
Lille vs 
Paris SG Cards
Result
Settled, final score 2-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 43.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 65.6% for over 2.5 to 12.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.7%. Between the two sides, Paris SG are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.0%, with a level count at 22.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 65.6% | 34.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 43.7% | 56.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 25.2% | 74.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 12.7% | 87.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
50.1%
23.8%
50.6%
24.2%
Card handicap
| Lille line | Lille | Paris SG |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.4% | 80.6% |
| -0.5 | 38.3% | 61.7% |
| +0.5 | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| +1.5 | 80.1% | 20.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 39.3% | 60.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 26.1% | 73.9% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Lille vs Paris SG. It tips Paris SG for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
43.7%Over 3.5 cards16.6%Any red card50.1%Lille over 1.5 cards50.6%Paris SG over 1.5 cards39.3%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Lille over 1.5 cards sits at 50.1% and Paris SG at 50.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.6% (Lille 8.6%, Paris SG 8.8%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Lille vs Paris SG?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 43.7% for Lille vs Paris SG.
Will there be a red card in Lille vs Paris SG?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 16.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Lille vs Paris SG?
Before kickoff, the model rated Paris SG to pick up more cards at 39.0%, with a level count at 22.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.