Serie A
Lazio vs 
Milan Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 45.8%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 58.0% for over 22.5 to 24.5% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.8%. On the shot count, Lazio are the model’s pick to have more shots at 58.9%, with a level count at 5.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| 26.5 shots | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 24.5% | 75.6% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
68.0%
51.6%
36.1%
51.8%
34.6%
21.1%
Shot handicap
| Lazio line | Lazio | Milan |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 34.6% | 65.4% |
| -2.5 | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| -0.5 | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| +0.5 | 64.8% | 35.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 30.2% | 69.8% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
4.7 / 10.0
7.0 / 5.7
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Lazio.
In-depth analysis
45.8%Over 24.5 shots51.6%Lazio over 12.5 shots34.6%Milan over 12.5 shots51.7%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Lazio over 12.5 shots sits at 51.6% and Milan at 34.6%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Lazio vs Milan?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 45.8% for Lazio vs Milan.
Which team will have more shots in Lazio vs Milan?
The model rates Lazio to take more shots at 58.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.