Segunda División
Las Palmas vs Albacete Cards
Result
Settled, final score 2-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 60.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 79.2% for over 2.5 to 25.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 41.4%. On the card count, Albacete are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.6%, with a level count at 19.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 79.2% | 20.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 25.0% | 75.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
57.6%
30.6%
66.5%
40.0%
Card handicap
| Las Palmas line | Las Palmas | Albacete |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.6% | 82.4% |
| -0.5 | 33.6% | 66.5% |
| +0.5 | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| +1.5 | 72.2% | 27.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 72.3% | 27.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 44.9% | 55.1% |
This season (2025/26)
1.9Las Palmas cards per game11.9Las Palmas fouls per game2.2Albacete cards per game11.3Albacete fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Las Palmas vs Albacete. The model leans toward Albacete for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
60.8%Over 3.5 cards18.8%Any red card57.6%Las Palmas over 1.5 cards66.5%Albacete over 1.5 cards58.9%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Las Palmas over 1.5 cards sits at 57.6% and Albacete at 66.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.8% (Las Palmas 10.7%, Albacete 9.1%). This season Las Palmas have averaged 1.9 cards a game and Albacete 2.2.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Las Palmas vs Albacete?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 60.8% for Las Palmas vs Albacete.
Will there be a red card in Las Palmas vs Albacete?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 18.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Las Palmas vs Albacete?
Before kickoff, the model rated Albacete to pick up more cards at 46.6%, with a level count at 19.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.