Girona vs Leganes: model prediction
Segunda División
Over 1.5 goals
Draw or Leganes
Girona or draw
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Leganes at 35.8%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 59.1% and it landed (2 goals). We called No at 52.2% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Expect a tight one: the model splits Girona and Leganes almost evenly, Leganes marginally on top at 36%. The numbers that frame it: • Notably, the model is warmer on Leganes than the market (14%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. • The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 41% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 48%. • History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Girona, 2 draws and 1 for Leganes at 2.0 goals per match. • Cristhian Stuani drives the home shot volume, 2.1 on target per 90. Form guide over the last six: Girona W2 D1 L3, Leganes W1 D1 L4. Fatigue may matter, with Leganes 1463 days shorter on recovery than Girona. Girona are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.14)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
34.7%-25.7%
29.6%+3.7%
35.8%+22.1%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.14)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Toss-up
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Girona 2 · 2 draws · Leganes 1 · 2.0 goals/game.
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 3.76
@ 2.22
@ 3.79
@ 6.71
@ 3.31
@ 4.85
@ 5.38
@ 1.83
@ 1.60
@ 35.71
@ 2.67
@ 3.65
@ 13.33
@ 2.33
@ 2.97
@ 4.18
@ 2.26
@ 2.23
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 73.1% | Over 7.5 | 60.4% | Over 8.5 | 47.1% | Over 9.5 | 34.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Girona | 57.0% | Most: Leganes | 30.3% | ||||
| Girona Over 4.2 | 51.1% | Leganes Over 4.2 | 31.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 88.6% | Over 3.5 | 75.3% | Over 4.5 | 58.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Girona | 35.2% | Most: Leganes | 46.9% | ||
| Girona Over 1.8 | 69.0% | Leganes Over 1.8 | 75.8% |
Girona: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristhian Stuani | 3.46 | 2.07 | 1.07 | 45.0% | 26.4% | 26.6% |
| Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 2.58 | 0.96 | 0.25 | 54.6% | 62.6% | 18.6% |
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 2.01 | 0.94 | 0.13 | 42.9% | 33.7% | 7.5% |
| Joel Roca | 2.95 | 0.92 | 0.18 | 37.3% | 44.2% | 8.7% |
| Claudio Echeverri | 3.12 | 0.89 | 0.15 | 29.7% | 35.0% | 5.8% |
Leganes: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munir | 2.24 | 0.96 | 0.43 | 30.2% | 20.6% | 14.9% |
| Miguel De la Fuente | 1.84 | 0.84 | 0.05 | 37.4% | 27.4% | 2.8% |
| Raba | 2.06 | 0.79 | 0.37 | 44.2% | 44.9% | 23.9% |
| Diego García | 2.23 | 0.69 | 0.23 | 27.4% | 27.8% | 10.1% |
| Juan Cruz | 1.3 | 0.55 | 0.2 | 33.8% | 25.5% | 13.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Girona clean sheet | 31.0% |
|---|---|
| Leganes clean sheet | 31.7% |
| Girona win to nil | 20.5% |
| Leganes win to nil | 21.2% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 34.7% | draw | 29.5% | away | 35.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 64.3% | 12 | 70.5% | X2 | 65.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 49.3% | away | 50.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 47.8% | no | 52.2% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 31.1% | away | 31.7% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 20.5% | away | 21.2% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 20.1% | home_by_2 | 9.9% | home_by_3plus | 4.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 20.5% | away_by_2 | 10.3% | away_by_3plus | 4.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 10.5% | 0-1 | 10.8% | 0-2 | 6.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.6% | 0-4 | 0.8% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 10.7% | 1-1 | 13.9% | 1-2 | 7.7% |
| 1-3 | 3.0% | 1-4 | 0.9% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 6.5% | 2-1 | 7.6% | 2-2 | 4.4% |
| 2-3 | 1.7% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 2.5% | 3-1 | 2.9% | 3-2 | 1.7% |
| 3-3 | 0.7% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.7% | 4-1 | 0.8% | 4-2 | 0.5% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 89.5% | under_0.5 | 10.5% | over_1.5 | 68.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 32.0% | over_2.5 | 40.9% | under_2.5 | 59.1% |
| over_3.5 | 20.5% | under_3.5 | 79.5% | over_4.5 | 8.6% |
| under_4.5 | 91.4% | over_5.5 | 3.1% | under_5.5 | 96.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.2% | even | 51.8% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 68.3% | under_0.5 | 31.7% | over_1.5 | 31.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.1% | over_2.5 | 11.0% | under_2.5 | 89.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 69.0% | under_0.5 | 31.1% | over_1.5 | 32.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.3% | over_2.5 | 11.4% | under_2.5 | 88.6% |
most
| home | 34.7% | draw | 29.5% | away | 35.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.6% | away_+2.5 | 95.4% | home_-1.5 | 14.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 85.5% | home_-0.5 | 34.7% | away_+0.5 | 65.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.3% | away_-0.5 | 35.8% | home_+1.5 | 84.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 15.2% | home_+2.5 | 95.1% | away_-2.5 | 4.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 10.5% | exact_1 | 21.5% | exact_2 | 27.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.4% | exact_4 | 11.9% | exact_5 | 5.5% |
| exact_6 | 2.1% | exact_7plus | 1.0% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 34.0% | draw | 48.0% | away | 18.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 60.4% | under_0.5 | 39.6% | over_1.5 | 23.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 76.3% | over_2.5 | 6.7% | under_2.5 | 93.3% |
btts
| yes | 12.9% | no | 87.1% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 39.6% | exact_1 | 36.7% | exact_2 | 17.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 5.2% | exact_4plus | 1.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 39.0% | draw | 37.4% | away | 23.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 76.0% | under_0.5 | 24.0% | over_1.5 | 41.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.3% | over_2.5 | 17.3% | under_2.5 | 82.7% |
btts
| yes | 25.2% | no | 74.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 27.6% | H/D | 4.9% | H/A | 1.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 18.7% | D/D | 17.9% | D/A | 11.4% |
| A/H | 2.1% | A/D | 4.1% | A/A | 11.8% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 70.1% | under_7.5 | 29.9% | over_8.5 | 57.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 42.1% | over_9.5 | 45.4% | under_9.5 | 54.6% |
| over_10.5 | 33.8% | under_10.5 | 66.2% | over_11.5 | 23.9% |
| under_11.5 | 76.1% | over_12.5 | 16.1% | under_12.5 | 83.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 73.3% | under_3.5 | 26.7% | over_4.5 | 57.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 42.3% | over_5.5 | 42.2% | under_5.5 | 57.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 56.4% | under_3.5 | 43.6% | over_4.5 | 38.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 61.2% | over_5.5 | 24.4% | under_5.5 | 75.6% |
most
| home | 57.0% | draw | 10.9% | away | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.0% | away_+3.5 | 75.0% | home_-1.5 | 45.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 54.4% | home_-0.5 | 57.0% | away_+0.5 | 43.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.8% | away_-0.5 | 32.2% | home_+1.5 | 77.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.7% | home_+3.5 | 90.6% | away_-3.5 | 9.4% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 62.8% | under_22.5 | 37.2% | over_24.5 | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 50.1% | over_26.5 | 37.4% | under_26.5 | 62.6% |
| over_28.5 | 26.3% | under_28.5 | 73.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 75.2% | under_10.5 | 24.8% | over_12.5 | 58.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 41.1% | over_14.5 | 42.0% | under_14.5 | 58.0% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 51.3% | under_10.5 | 48.7% | over_12.5 | 32.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 67.2% | over_14.5 | 18.6% | under_14.5 | 81.4% |
most
| home | 65.0% | draw | 5.9% | away | 29.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 39.3% | away_+4.5 | 60.8% | home_-2.5 | 52.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 47.8% | home_-0.5 | 65.0% | away_+0.5 | 35.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.9% | away_-0.5 | 29.1% | home_+2.5 | 81.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 19.0% | home_+4.5 | 88.6% | away_-4.5 | 11.4% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 73.1% | under_6.5 | 26.9% | over_7.5 | 60.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 39.6% | over_8.5 | 47.1% | under_8.5 | 52.9% |
| over_9.5 | 34.7% | under_9.5 | 65.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 68.8% | under_3.5 | 31.2% | over_4.5 | 51.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 48.9% | over_5.5 | 34.4% | under_5.5 | 65.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 50.4% | under_3.5 | 49.6% | over_4.5 | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 68.2% | over_5.5 | 17.9% | under_5.5 | 82.1% |
most
| home | 57.0% | draw | 12.7% | away | 30.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 30.9% | away_+2.5 | 69.1% | home_-0.5 | 57.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 43.1% | home_+0.5 | 69.7% | away_-0.5 | 30.3% |
| home_+2.5 | 88.4% | away_-2.5 | 11.7% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 88.6% | under_2.5 | 11.4% | over_3.5 | 75.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 24.7% | over_4.5 | 58.2% | under_4.5 | 41.8% |
| over_5.5 | 40.7% | under_5.5 | 59.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 69.0% | under_1.5 | 31.0% | over_2.5 | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 57.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 75.8% | under_1.5 | 24.2% | over_2.5 | 51.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 48.5% |
most
| home | 35.2% | draw | 17.9% | away | 46.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 20.1% | away_+1.5 | 79.9% | home_-0.5 | 35.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 64.9% | home_+0.5 | 53.1% | away_-0.5 | 46.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 70.2% | away_-1.5 | 29.8% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 84.5% | under_20.5 | 15.5% | over_22.5 | 74.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 25.6% | over_24.5 | 62.2% | under_24.5 | 37.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 83.5% | under_9.5 | 16.5% | over_11.5 | 67.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 32.1% | over_13.5 | 49.6% | under_13.5 | 50.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 78.3% | under_9.5 | 21.7% | over_11.5 | 60.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 39.4% | over_13.5 | 41.6% | under_13.5 | 58.4% |
most
| home | 52.3% | draw | 6.6% | away | 41.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 32.7% | away_+3.5 | 67.3% | home_-0.5 | 52.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 47.7% | home_+2.5 | 71.3% | away_-2.5 | 28.7% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 13.2% | no | 86.8% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.3% | no | 94.7% |
|---|
away
| yes | 8.3% | no | 91.7% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Girona predictions · Leganes predictions · Segunda División
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Explore this match
Markets