Dep. A Coruna vs Elche prediction & probabilities (2026-08-17)

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Dep. A Coruna vs Elche: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 17 Aug 2026

La Liga
Dep. A Coruna
Full time1-1Mon, 17 Aug 202620:00UK
Elche

LDLWD

Model’s top convictions

75%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Dep. A Coruna or draw

59%

Draw or Elche

Full time1 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Dep. A Coruna 1-1 Elche
✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Both teams to score
1 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Dep. A Coruna at 40.9%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 50.0% and it missed (2 goals). We called Yes at 54.8% and it landed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Dep. A CorunaWin probability
40.9%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals75.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.33
Dep. A Coruna or draw68.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.46
Draw or Elche59.1%Good chancePays @ 1.69

Model read

▾

The probabilities barely separate Dep. A Coruna and Elche on 17 August 2026: Dep. A Coruna nose ahead at 41%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) The market broadly agrees, pricing Dep. A Coruna at 42%. 2) No strong lean on goals (50% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) As a promoted side, Dep. A Coruna carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.27).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners44.6%@ 2.24
Over 10.5 corners34.5%@ 2.90
Elche win31.5%@ 3.18
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners55.6%@ 1.80
Both teams to score54.8%@ 1.82
Over 2.5 goals50.0%@ 2.00
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.9%@ 7.76
1-0 correct score9.1%@ 10.95
2-1 correct score8.7%@ 11.53

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Dep. A Coruna

40.9%-0.7%

Draw

27.7%-3.9%

Elche

31.5%+4.6%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.27)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.575.3%

Strong chance

Over 2.550.0%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes54.8%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.555.6%

Good chance

Over 9.544.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.534.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.525.7%

Low chance

Most cornersDep. A Coruna60.7%Elche28.6%

Shots markets

Over 22.558.4%

Good chance

Over 24.545.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.533.4%

Toss-up

Over 28.523.0%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.575.3%2.550.0%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.575.3%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

ElcheLDLWD

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Rafa MirElche · key player
To score25.5%

@ 3.92

1+ on target73.7%

@ 1.36

2+ shots72.5%

@ 1.38

Shots/90 3.39SoT/90 1.77Goals/90 0.39
André SilvaElche · in form
To score27.4%

@ 3.65

1+ on target59.6%

@ 1.68

2+ shots54.8%

@ 1.82

Shots/90 2.76SoT/90 1.36Goals/90 0.48
Alvaro RodríguezElche · in form
To score18.8%

@ 5.32

1+ on target50.6%

@ 1.98

2+ shots64.0%

@ 1.56

Shots/90 3.03SoT/90 0.98Goals/90 0.29

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Dep. A Coruna win2.302.45
Draw3.003.61
Elche win3.503.18
Over 2.5 goals2.302.00
Under 2.5 goals1.622.00

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Dep. A Coruna win2.50
Draw3.69
Elche win3.03
Both teams to score1.82

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.33
Over 2.5 goals2.00
Over 3.5 goals3.57
Dep. A Coruna most2.50
Elche most3.03

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.43
Over 8.5 corners1.73
Over 9.5 corners2.21
Over 10.5 corners2.97
Dep. A Coruna most1.64
Elche most3.49

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.23
Over 3.5 cards1.55
Over 4.5 cards2.18
Over 5.5 cards3.41
Dep. A Coruna most2.78
Elche most2.23

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.38
Over 7.5 SoT1.66
Over 8.5 SoT2.11
Over 9.5 SoT2.83
Dep. A Coruna most1.55
Elche most4.18

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.71
Over 24.5 shots2.20
Over 26.5 shots2.99
Over 28.5 shots4.34
Dep. A Coruna most1.45
Elche most3.91

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.18
Over 22.5 fouls1.34
Over 24.5 fouls1.60
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 72.7% Over 7.5 60.3% Over 8.5 47.4% Over 9.5 35.4%
Most: Dep. A Coruna 64.6% Most: Elche 23.9%
Dep. A Coruna Over 4.2 56.3% Elche Over 4.2 26.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 81.5% Over 3.5 64.5% Over 4.5 45.9%
Most: Dep. A Coruna 36.0% Most: Elche 44.9%
Dep. A Coruna Over 1.8 61.5% Elche Over 1.8 67.4%

Elche: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Rafa Mir 3.39 1.77 0.39 73.7% 72.5% 25.5%
André Silva 2.76 1.36 0.48 59.6% 54.8% 27.4%
Alvaro Rodríguez 3.03 0.98 0.29 50.6% 64.0% 18.8%
Hector Fort 2.26 0.94 0.38 30.0% 21.2% 13.4%
John Donald 0.85 0.28 0.14 9.0% 3.4% 4.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Dep. A Coruna clean sheet 28.3%
Elche clean sheet 24.3%
Dep. A Coruna win to nil 20.8%
Elche win to nil 16.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 40.0% draw 27.1% away 33.0%
double_chance
1X 67.0% 12 72.9% X2 60.0%
dnb
home 54.8% away 45.2%
btts
yes 54.8% no 45.2%
clean_sheet
home 28.3% away 24.4%
win_to_nil
home 20.8% away 16.9%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.8% home_by_2 12.0% home_by_3plus 7.2%
away_by_1 18.5% away_by_2 9.6% away_by_3plus 4.9%
correct_score
0-0 7.5% 0-1 8.1% 0-2 5.5%
0-3 2.3% 0-4 0.7% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 9.1% 1-1 12.9% 1-2 7.7%
1-3 3.3% 1-4 1.0% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 6.9% 2-1 8.7% 2-2 5.5%
2-3 2.3% 2-4 0.7% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 3.3% 3-1 4.1% 3-2 2.6%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.2% 4-1 1.5% 4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.5% under_0.5 7.5% over_1.5 75.3%
under_1.5 24.7% over_2.5 50.0% under_2.5 50.0%
over_3.5 28.0% under_3.5 72.0% over_4.5 13.3%
under_4.5 86.7% over_5.5 5.5% under_5.5 94.5%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 75.6% under_0.5 24.4% over_1.5 41.3%
under_1.5 58.7% over_2.5 17.0% under_2.5 83.0%
team_away
over_0.5 71.7% under_0.5 28.3% over_1.5 35.9%
under_1.5 64.1% over_2.5 13.4% under_2.5 86.6%
most
home 40.0% draw 27.1% away 33.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.2% away_+2.5 92.8% home_-1.5 19.2%
away_+1.5 80.8% home_-0.5 40.0% away_+0.5 60.0%
home_+0.5 67.0% away_-0.5 33.0% home_+1.5 85.5%
away_-1.5 14.5% home_+2.5 95.1% away_-2.5 4.9%
total_exact
exact_0 7.5% exact_1 17.2% exact_2 25.3%
exact_3 22.0% exact_4 14.7% exact_5 7.9%
exact_6 3.5% exact_7plus 2.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 38.8% draw 40.8% away 20.4%
total
over_0.5 70.5% under_0.5 29.5% over_1.5 34.4%
under_1.5 65.6% over_2.5 12.5% under_2.5 87.5%
btts
yes 19.7% no 80.3%
total_exact
exact_0 29.5% exact_1 36.0% exact_2 22.0%
exact_3 8.9% exact_4plus 3.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 42.9% draw 34.4% away 22.7%
total
over_0.5 79.9% under_0.5 20.1% over_1.5 47.6%
under_1.5 52.4% over_2.5 21.8% under_2.5 78.3%
btts
yes 29.0% no 71.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 32.2% H/D 4.9% H/A 1.7%
D/H 17.5% D/D 14.1% D/A 9.3%
A/H 2.9% A/D 4.7% A/A 12.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 69.8% under_7.5 30.2% over_8.5 57.7%
under_8.5 42.4% over_9.5 45.2% under_9.5 54.8%
over_10.5 33.7% under_10.5 66.3% over_11.5 23.8%
under_11.5 76.2% over_12.5 16.0% under_12.5 84.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.2% under_3.5 24.8% over_4.5 60.3%
under_4.5 39.8% over_5.5 44.9% under_5.5 55.1%
team_away
over_3.5 52.9% under_3.5 47.1% over_4.5 35.4%
under_4.5 64.6% over_5.5 21.6% under_5.5 78.4%
most
home 60.9% draw 10.4% away 28.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.5% away_+3.5 71.5% home_-1.5 49.7%
away_+1.5 50.3% home_-0.5 60.9% away_+0.5 39.1%
home_+0.5 71.3% away_-0.5 28.7% home_+1.5 80.2%
away_-1.5 19.8% home_+3.5 92.1% away_-3.5 7.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 58.4% under_22.5 41.6% over_24.5 45.5%
under_24.5 54.5% over_26.5 33.4% under_26.5 66.6%
over_28.5 23.0% under_28.5 77.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.6% under_10.5 25.5% over_12.5 58.5%
under_12.5 41.5% over_14.5 42.0% under_14.5 58.0%
team_away
over_10.5 44.5% under_10.5 55.5% over_12.5 27.0%
under_12.5 73.0% over_14.5 14.6% under_14.5 85.4%
most
home 68.8% draw 5.6% away 25.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 43.4% away_+4.5 56.6% home_-2.5 56.4%
away_+2.5 43.6% home_-0.5 68.8% away_+0.5 31.2%
home_+0.5 74.4% away_-0.5 25.6% home_+2.5 83.8%
away_-2.5 16.2% home_+4.5 90.6% away_-4.5 9.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 72.7% under_6.5 27.3% over_7.5 60.3%
under_7.5 39.7% over_8.5 47.4% under_8.5 52.6%
over_9.5 35.4% under_9.5 64.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.6% under_3.5 27.4% over_4.5 56.3%
under_4.5 43.7% over_5.5 40.1% under_5.5 59.9%
team_away
over_3.5 43.9% under_3.5 56.1% over_4.5 26.4%
under_4.5 73.6% over_5.5 14.2% under_5.5 85.8%
most
home 64.6% draw 11.5% away 23.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 38.9% away_+2.5 61.1% home_-0.5 64.6%
away_+0.5 35.4% home_+0.5 76.1% away_-0.5 23.9%
home_+2.5 91.5% away_-2.5 8.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 81.5% under_2.5 18.5% over_3.5 64.5%
under_3.5 35.5% over_4.5 45.9% under_4.5 54.1%
over_5.5 29.3% under_5.5 70.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 61.5% under_1.5 38.5% over_2.5 35.1%
under_2.5 64.9%
team_away
over_1.5 67.4% under_1.5 32.6% over_2.5 41.7%
under_2.5 58.4%
most
home 36.0% draw 19.1% away 44.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.1% away_+1.5 79.9% home_-0.5 36.0%
away_+0.5 64.0% home_+0.5 55.1% away_-0.5 44.9%
home_+1.5 72.8% away_-1.5 27.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 84.8% under_20.5 15.2% over_22.5 74.8%
under_22.5 25.2% over_24.5 62.5% under_24.5 37.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 81.7% under_9.5 18.3% over_11.5 65.2%
under_11.5 34.8% over_13.5 46.4% under_13.5 53.6%
team_away
over_9.5 81.0% under_9.5 19.0% over_11.5 64.1%
under_11.5 35.9% over_13.5 45.3% under_13.5 54.7%
most
home 47.4% draw 6.7% away 45.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.4% away_+3.5 71.6% home_-0.5 47.4%
away_+0.5 52.6% home_+2.5 67.1% away_-2.5 32.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 21.7% no 78.3%
home
yes 9.9% no 90.1%
away
yes 13.1% no 86.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Dep. A Coruna predictions · Elche predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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La LigaDep. A CorunaElcheTrack record