La Liga
La Coruna vs 
Sevilla Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Home or Away at 72.2%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, La Coruna are favoured at 37.4%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| La Coruna by 1 | 20.5% |
| La Coruna by 2 | 10.9% |
| La Coruna by 3+ | 5.7% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 19.6% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 10.0% |
| Sevilla by 3+ | 5.0% |
| Draw | 27.8% |
Goal handicap
| La Coruna line | La Coruna | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.6% | 83.4% |
| -0.5 | 37.0% | 63.0% |
| +0.5 | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| +1.5 | 84.9% | 15.1% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8La Coruna goals scored per game1.2La Coruna goals conceded per game1.6Sevilla goals scored per game1.2Sevilla goals conceded per gameTwo of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is La Coruna or Sevilla on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
51.3%Both Teams to Score45.4%Over 2.5 goalsOn the result, La Coruna are favoured at 37.4%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: La Coruna 0 · 2 draws · Sevilla 3 · 3.0 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in La Coruna vs Sevilla?
Home or Away is the highest-probability double chance for La Coruna vs Sevilla at 72.2%.
What is the draw no bet probability in La Coruna vs Sevilla?
With the draw taken out, the model rates La Coruna at 51.7% and Sevilla at 48.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 40,098 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.